HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
DECEMBER 3, 2010
by Dick Powell
There were a lot of good juveniles in action last weekend, but the real stars
might not have run in the stakes but on the undercard. Saturday was Churchill
Downs’ “Stars of Tomorrow” racecard where all the races were for two-year-olds.
The marquee races were the Golden Rod S. (G2) and the Kentucky Jockey Club S.
(G2) — both on the main track going 1 1/16 miles.
In the Golden Rod, KATHMANBLU (Bluegrass Cat) returned to the dirt after
running on the turf in her prior four starts. She didn’t show much in her career
debut on the dirt, but that was going 4 1/2 furlongs, so it wasn’t a matter of
which surface she liked but which distance she liked. She won a stakes race two
starts back then rallied for third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly Turf (G2)
last out, and she showed the same late energy on Saturday when she blew by the
leaders turning for home and won by 8 1/2 lengths.
Kathmanblu’s final time was 1:44.48, and considering it was done behind a
modest pace, it was very good. Her BRIS Speed rating was 96 — not as good as
the 105 earned in her last start on turf — but good enough to give trainer Ken
McPeek hope that he has a legitimate Kentucky Oaks (G1) filly on his hands for
next year.
The Kentucky Jockey Club showcased Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Super Saver
last year, but I don’t think we saw next year’s Derby winner last Saturday. It
was an exciting race as SANTIVA (Giant’s Causeway) broke his maiden in a gutty
performance that answered a lot of questions regarding his ability to go two
turns on the dirt and how he would react when challenged.
The betting public sent off Astrology (A.P. Indy) as the 7-10 favorite off a
big win in the Iroquois S. (G3) last out and made Santiva the third choice at
4.80 to 1. The race was won at the start as Shaun Bridghmohan gunned Santiva up
the rail going into the first turn to make sure that he wasn’t shuffled back and
set up shop in the pocket behind Prideofthechapter (Strong Hope) with Astrology
to his outside. The pace slowed down to a crawl with a :49.95 middle half and
quickened around the far turn.
Astrology loomed boldly on the outside and Santiva came off the rail to go
after the leader. It looked like Santiva would be passed in the stretch, but
showing the courage of his sire, Giant’s Causeway, he battled back on the inside
and won by a half length over Astrology. The final time of the Kentucky Jockey
Club was 1:45.31, which only earned a 92 BRIS Speed rating. Yes, it was a slow
pace but they didn’t quicken all that fast like you would expect.
And speaking of Super Saver, WinStar Farm sent out his half-brother BRETHREN
(Distorted Humor) to win a first-level allowance race going a mile on the main
track. Trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Garrett Gomez, he bided his time
down the backstretch run and began to make his move around the far turn. He drew
even at the top of the stretch and pulled away to a 1 3/4-length victory in
1:36.78, with his final quarter run in :24.99.
Brethren won his first time out at Belmont going six furlongs in very fast
time and now has a win going a mile. His pedigree suggests 10 furlongs should be
no problem, and the good thing about his race on Saturday was how he was able to
pass horses willingly.
The other star at Churchill’s Saturday card was the sire Tapit, who sired
three winners on the day. In the 1ST race, SWITCHING GEARS (Tapit) won by 5 1/4
lengths in a seven-furlong maiden special weight race for juvenile fillies. Her
final time was 1:24.44 and it came in her fourth career start, as she was second
in her first two and then a distant sixth in the Pocahontas S. (G2) last out.
In the 5TH race, a first-level allowance race going six furlongs on the main
track for males, WINCHILL (Tapit) stalked the pace and won by a length at 17-1
odds for Dale Romans and Rosemary Homeister Jr. This was his fourth career
start, as he broke his maiden by five lengths at Ellis Park first time out and
then showed little in his next two starts. City Cool (City Zip) and Razmataz
(Forest Wildcat) showed that the “bounce theory” is alive and well as they both
were beaten after running career-best races last time out.
Finally, with the lights on and the sun already down, Steve Asmussen sent out
TAPIZAR (Tapit) for the 12TH race going 1 1/16 miles on the main track for
maiden special weight males. The lukewarm betting choice at 7-2 odds, Tapizar
was making his fourth start and all of them were going two turns on the main
track. He chased the early leader through a good half in :47.82 and then took
over at the top of the stretch to win by a widening 10 1/2 lengths. Tapizar’s
final time was 1:44.19 — faster than both juvenile stake races run earlier in
the day.
So, here’s the handicapping puzzle as we look forward to next year. Did we
see a winner of a classic race on Saturday? My guess is no; at least not from
the stakes races which were run in average time. Horses like Tapizar had already
run three two-turn races, so it was not a stretch that he was able to win his
race. Had he been a first-time starter or a horse going long off a single sprint
race, I would give his performance greater credibility. The fact that he ran
faster than the winners of the stakes races downgrades their performances. The
lone classic winner, among the males, that we might have seen at Churchill last
Saturday had to be Brethren. He’s two for two with unlimited upside.
***
Bill Mott made the Hall of Fame at a young age by giving his young horses
time to grow and mature. So when Mott has a horse like TO HONOR AND SERVE (Bernardini),
as good as he looks, you have to assume that there’s more to come since Mott is
not known for tightening the screws early in their careers.
In Saturday’s Remsen S. (G2) at Aqueduct going nine furlongs, there were two
scratches on raceday morning leaving a field of only five horses. At the start,
Buffum (Bernardini), who was expected to go the front, ducked in at the start
and that left the early lead wide open. With the short run into the first turn,
riders have a short amount of time to decide whether to go or take back, and
Johnny Velazquez looked the gift horse in the mouth and decided to go.
To Honor and Serve took the lead around the first turn, and the race was
essentially over. When a big, fast horse is able to stride comfortably on the
lead, they are hard to beat since they use all their positive attributes to full
advantage. After a first quarter in :24.35, he threw in a middle half
(wind-aided) of :46.83 while under a little pressure. Around the far turn, he
maintained his advantage of about a length before he opened up a sizeable
advantage after turning for home. From there, Velazquez just let him run on his
own and the final margin was two lengths.
To Honor and Serve completed the nine furlongs in 1:50.03 and earned a BRIS
Speed rating of 102. In and of itself, this is excellent, but coming off a
career-best 105 earned in his win in the Nashua S. (G2), it shows that even if
he bounces it’s not by much. He showed he can get nine furlongs and with a
standout pedigree, should have no trouble going even longer.
One thing that bears watching is Mott using Velazquez. Velazquez, first-call
rider for the powerful Todd Pletcher stable, is already the rider of probable
juvenile champion UNCLE MO (Indian Charlie), so it will be interesting to see
what Mott does next year. If Uncle Mo’s prep races go according to plan, and we
are probably only looking at two of them, when does Mott begin to look for a new
rider? Normally, he would secure the services of a top rider going into the year
if he feels Johnny is going to stick with Uncle Mo. There will be many months
before Uncle Mo and To Honor and Serve make their next starts, but there will be
a point where a decision has to be made.
DIXIE CITY (Dixie Union) went to the front in the Demoiselle S. (G2) earlier
in the card and never looked back. She made the lead right at the start of her
two-turn debut and pulled away in the stretch to win by a throttled-down 3 1/4
lengths. Her final time for the nine furlongs was 1:52.84 and she earned a BRIS
Speed rating of only 88. Believe in A. P. (A. P. Indy) rallied for second after
getting no help with the early pace.
Finally, the Cigar Mile (G1) was run at Aqueduct as the last Grade 1 stakes
in New York until next April’s Wood Memorial (G1). On Friday, the races were off
the turf and the main track was listed as “good” after rain hit the New York
City area. I thought JERSEY TOWN (Speightstown) might have a shot if Saturday’s
track stayed wet. But, Saturday dawned clear and windy, so the main track was
dried out and I lost interest in Jersey Town. Big mistake.
Sent off at 34-1 odds even though he has a terrific one-turn pedigree,
Cornelio Velasquez had him in stalking position for most of the mile and in the
deep stretch, there he was taking a tenuous lead. Haynesfield (Speightstown),
showing no ill effects from his Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) race, was battling
down on the rail and Girolamo (A.P. Indy) was rallying on the outside. It never
looked like Jersey Town would hang on, but despite drifting out in the last 100
yards and then going back toward the inside, he pulled off the shocker and paid
$71.50 to win. Haynesfield was a very game second and Girolamo was a half-length
back in third. Jersey Town earned a career-best 111 BRIS Speed rating and could
be a fun horse to watch down the road.