Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

JANUARY 7, 2011

by Dick Powell

Gulfstream Park opened up its 2011 racing season on Wednesday with some

significant changes for those who will be betting on the track's races. In an

effort to attract new customers and try to get former customers to come back,

Gulfstream is now offering up a new wagering menu that not only offers more

opportunities but at a lower cost.

The big change in the Gulfstream Park wagering menu is the addition of a 50

cent Pick-5 with a very low 15 percent takeout. This is similar to what Monmouth

Park did last summer and it was a big success. By having the 50 cent increment,

small bettors can use more horses in their combinations without breaking the

bank but the 15 percent takeout will attract the more price-sensitive bettors as

well. With good-sized fields, there is still the possibility of carryovers and

we saw that on opening day when the Pick-5 was not hit even with $55,229 in the

pool. Weekends should see pool sizes in the six-figure range.

There will be early and late 50 cent Pick-4s with a very low takeout of 20

percent, so this will also provide all customers the ability to chase big

payoffs on limited budgets. Bet-3s will have the same low 20 percent takeout.

Gulfstream Park has never been a big track for the Pick-6 so this year they

are trying to stimulate business by offering a 10 cent Pick-6 that is designed

to have carryovers grow the pool to where it might be worth betting. According

to the Gulfstream Park web site, "The 10 cent Pick-6 will be awarded to one

unique ticket. On days when there are multiple winners, 60 percent of the pool

will be shared equally while 40 percent goes back into the jackpot."

This is an offshoot of the Beulah Park Pick-6, which did generate six-figure

carryovers going to the last day of the meet last year. Gulfstream is going to

seed the Pick-6 with $5,000 to make it worth your while to play.

On opening day, there was $7,457 bet on this year's 10 cent Pick-6 compared

to last year's $2 Pick-6 pool of $9,996. Granted, last year's opening day was on

a Sunday, so that might explain why this year's pool might be down. But, I don't

know if this year's pool included the $5,000 seed money.

My problem with the new Pick-6 is that it is very complicated and, while it

might achieve its goal, there is a steep learning curve to fully understand its

nuances. With a terrific 50 cent, low-takeout Pick-5, why even bother with it.

Plus, some of the tote companies have not undergone the expensive

re-configuration needed to even take this bet, so don't be surprised to see your

local simulcast outlet or ADW not making it available.

As for the racing itself, Gulfstream will still be the speed-favoring main

track track for dirt sprints that it has been for the past few years. Speed is

king from 5 1/2 furlongs to one mile on the dirt track as the Gulfstream main

track has a strong bias toward it. Here are the numbers:

Remember, at one mile on the main track, there is a very short run up to the

timing pole so the races are timed almost as if they were breaking from a

standing start. Thus, the first quarter-mile times are unusually slow; 24

seconds flat is a good time from the starting gate in a one-mile race so don't

make the mistake of thinking that these races are run at a slow pace.

Analyzing two-turn races on the main track is problematic. First of all,

there are very few of them carded since they start very close to the first turn

and many trainers do not want to run if they draw an outside post. Thus, the

one-mile races are very popular. Secondly, many of the two-turn turf races that

are washed out and switched to the main track are run at one mile, resulting in

even fewer races run at 1 1/8 miles around two turns.

Turf racing is a challenge at Gulfstream since the portable rail is moved

each week in 12-foot increments. Historically, we have found that when the rail

is down (0 feet) or set at 12 feet, inside speed horses tend to have an

advantage. When the rail is set at 72 or 84 feet, wide closers seem to have an

advantage.

Using the same BRIS Ultimate Past Performances information as we did for the

main track yields the following results:

In turf sprints going five furlongs, there is a huge speed bias. Once the

turf races stretch out to two turns, the speed bias goes away and the course

either plays fair or favors closers. The two most popular distances run on the

turf at Gulfstream -- one mile and 1 1/16 miles -- yield results that are

relatively fair in terms of running styles.

In turf sprints, horses that run up front early have a big edge. Once the

races stretch out to two turns, the turf races are relatively fair, with a one

in six chance of winning gate to wire or you want to come from midpack. Deep

closers have their best shot with the temporary set at its widest point.

We'll be keeping track of how the rail position affects the winning running

styles of the turf races and also see if the historical bias toward speed on the

main track sprints continues as the meet goes along.