HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
FEBRUARY 18, 2011
by Dick Powell
The first pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager is this weekend and like
any other pari-mutuel betting pool, there could be some value in it. Don’t
listen to the critics of the Future Wager. While they might be right about
individual points, they are ignoring some opportunities that the wager presents.
My main goal is to have a horse that I played at long odds enter the starting
gate on the first Saturday of May. If they win, that’s fine. But, if they are in
the gate that day, it gives me the opportunity to hedge with the rest of the
field and guarantee a return on my investment.
The horse that I am most interested in playing is Repole Stable’s STAY
THIRSTY (Bernardini), who is listed at 30-1 on the morning line for the first
pool. I liked him last year when he showed far more precociousness than his
pedigree suggests. After breaking his maiden gate-to-wire at Saratoga going six
furlongs, he was thrown into the Hopeful S. (G1) going seven furlongs and rushed
up to take the lead after stumbling at the break. He held on for second behind
the once-classy BOYS AT TOSCONOVA (Officer) in a gutty performance.
While his much more heralded stablemate UNCLE MO (Indian Charlie) was prepped
in the Champagne S. (G1) for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), Stay Thirsty went
to Churchill without a prep at all. His regular rider, Johnny Velazquez, was
committed to Uncle Mo so Stay Thirsty wound up with Javier Castellano, who had a
career year last season.
Stay Thirsty took back that day for the first time, made a menacing move on
the far turn, and then came up empty in the drive while finishing fifth. He
wasn’t going to beat Uncle Mo no matter what but the fact that he went there off
a seven-furlong race two months earlier put him at a severe disadvantage. Like
Uncle Mo, trainer Todd Pletcher freshened him up and he’s training at Palm
Meadows with the same workout pattern.
Pedigree wise, Stay Thirsty should have no trouble getting 10 furlongs on the
first Saturday in May. He’s by Preakness (G1)/Travers (G1) winner Bernardini
(A.P. Indy) out of a Storm Bird mare who is a daughter of Make Change (Roberto).
Make Change ran second in the 1988 Alabama S. (G1) and is herself a daughter of
Equal Change (Arts and Letters), who was second to the immortal Ruffian in the
1975 Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) going 1 1/2 miles. That’s a lot of stamina
on the bottom side and there’s plenty on the sire’s side.
Last year at two, Stay Thirsty showed surprising speed and a top cruising
speed. I like Derby horses that have tactical speed with plenty of pedigree and
Stay Thirsty has it. While it’s too early to handicap the Kentucky Derby with
late developers, track condition and post position still unknowns, he’s a horse
that I will bet this weekend if his odds stay around where they are in the
morning line.
I’ll bet $100 on Stay Thirsty in Pool 1 if he stays around 30-1. Unless
something shocking happens between now and Monday, there’s no reason to think
that he won’t be around those odds. Like I said before, the goal is to have him
in the starting gate of the Derby. If he is able to make the race, I have $3,000
alive in the betting on him that day. If he does well between now and Derby day,
it’s even better since his post-time odds will be a lot less and it will be a
lot easier and cheaper to hedge against him.
It’s an expensive proposition but you can set yourself up to guarantee a
percentage of the $3,000 that is alive in the pool. If Stay Thirsty wins, I get
$3,000. If I hedge the race correctly, I could guarantee some portion of the
$3,000 depending on how much I am willing to spend. It might take another $1,000
but if I do it correctly I could guarantee a return on my initial investment of
$100 by proportionally betting the rest of the field. Or, if Stay Thirsty goes
into the Derby as my selection, I already have made my bet at generous overlaid
odds.
BRETHREN (Distorted Humor) won the Sam F. Davis S. (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs
and looked good doing it. The undefeated half-brother to last year’s Derby
winner, Super Saver (Maria’s Mon), won his stakes debut with ease in good time
and thrust himself into this year’s Derby picture with $120,000 in graded stakes
earnings.
Away from the gate a bit slow, Brethren chased a moderate pace while in
second place under Ramon Dominguez. For the 9-10 favorite, it was just a matter
of time before Dominguez pressed the button and he did in the stretch to pull
away and win by four lengths. The final time of 1:45.07 was average but
considering there was never a real pace up front, it was better than it looked.
Brethren’s BRIS pace figures were 82, 87 and 98, so he finished his race full of
run and gave the impression that the best is yet to come.
The past performances for all the entrants and other contenders for the Derby
future wager are available on BRIS. There is one thing that sticks out to me
while looking them over: I am throwing out any horse that races or trains at
Santa Anita. The newly installed dirt surface there is still too hard and
already you are seeing problems. By the time the Santa Anita Derby (G1) is run
on April 9, the horses stabled there are going to be pretty banged up by the
constant pounding.
Bob Baffert has already worked THE FACTOR (War Front) at Hollywood Park the
past two workouts after not having a timed work for a month. We’ll see how many
other follow suit.