HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
MARCH 11, 2011
by Dick Powell
Juvenile champion UNCLE MO (Indian Charlie) makes his 2011 debut in Florida
on Saturday, but way south of where it was expected. A few weeks ago, Todd
Pletcher announced that his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner would not go to
the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) but would stay home in south Florida and contest the
ungraded Timely Writer S. going a flat mile at Gulfstream Park. It has raised a
few eyebrows as many consider it to be a red flag, but we’ll just have to see.
Gulfstream Park has done its job by rounding up five overmatched opponents to
race for the $100,000 purse. Having already won the Juvenile around two turns at
Churchill Downs last year, Pletcher has the luxury of starting him out at one
turn instead of having to prove himself around two. Plus, Pletcher has the
further luxury of using the Tampa Bay race for his BRETHREN (Distorted Humor),
as he does everything he can to keep his juggernaut of sophomore colts separated
until the big money is on the line on the first Saturday of May.
Uncle Mo needs no introduction to the readers of this column. He’s one of the
best juvenile champions we have ever seen and now it’s time to get him ready for
the deep waters. Pletcher has been working him consistently at Palm Meadows with
STAY THIRSTY (Bernardini), and we saw how well that one ran last Saturday in the
Gotham S. (G3) at Aqueduct.
Mike Repole’s pride and joy draws post 1, from where Johnny Velazquez will
have to make some decisions coming out of the gate. Depending upon what Pletcher
wants to get out of the race, does Johnny use his pace advantage and go to the
front or does he try to get him to settle and make one run? Chances are, most of
his training has been to build stamina so it will be interesting to see if he
still has last year’s natural speed.
Although a bad betting race, it should be fascinating to watch and see how it
unfolds and what conclusions we can draw from it afterwards. In my mind, a good,
hard mile can get a horse in much better shape than a slow-paced two-turn event,
but we’ll have to wait and see if Uncle Mo gets a hard race. The danger for
Pletcher is to have a race that is too easy and he doesn’t get enough fitness
out of it.
Up in central Florida on the Gulf Coast, Pletcher sends out the also
undefeated BRETHREN in the Tampa Bay Derby against eight rivals. Winner by four
lengths of the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) in his last start over the track, he’ll
probably go off at odds-on even though he is breaking from the far outside.
As good as he has looked in his three starts, many handicappers are down on
Brethren. He has only earned a best BRIS speed rating of 94 and he’s going to
have to break triple figures for him to be considered a legitimate Derby
contender.
The other factor in many negative perceptions of Brethren is, well, his
brethren. He’s a half-brother to last year’s Kentucky Derby (G1) winner SUPER
SAVER (Maria’s Mon) which is now considered a negative for some since the rest
of Super Saver’s career was not real pretty. Why this matters is anyone’s guess.
I wouldn’t just like him because he’s a half-brother to a Derby winner, but I
wouldn’t dislike him just because that Derby winner turned out to be a one-hit
wonder. The fact that Brethren is sired by the fantastic Distorted Humor should
give him some bonus points.
Pletcher and Repole were in action last weekend at Aqueduct when their Stay
Thirsty made his seasonal debut. I like this horse and have him in the future
pool at 40-1, so I was paying close attention to the Gotham, which used to be a
one-turn mile but has been run at two turns recently as NYRA had to move it
earlier in the schedule to accommodate trainers’ demands to have more time
between races.
Off since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile but training weekly with Uncle Mo, Stay
Thirsty looked fit before the race. Not the size horse you would think being
sired by Bernardini would be, he still made a good appearance in the paddock.
When the tallish (for a rider) Ramon Dominguez got aboard, he looked even
smaller as Ramon’s legs hung down much farther than we are used to seeing.
I don’t know why many commentators think that bigger horses do better in
longer races. Up to a mile; yes. Beyond a mile, I just don’t see it. Stamina is
something that comes from your cardio-pulmonary system and not necessarily how
long your stride is.
After breaking a bit poorly, Dominguez had to send Stay Thirsty into the
first turn pretty hard and he did it willingly. What was impressive was when
Dominguez asked him to back off, he did that willingly as well. He stalked the
leaders down the backstretch while racing wide and then began to close in on
them four wide around the turn.
Dominguez had him three wide at the top of the stretch, but had to wait to
ask him to go since he was lugging in and Ramon was doing all he could to keep
him off the inside horses. Once he got him straightened out nearing the
eighth-pole, it was all over and Stay Thirsty pulled away to a handy score. He
only earned a BRIS speed rating of 95, but he overcame adversity and showed he
can handle two turns with a strong finish.
Stay Thirsty’s BRIS pace figures were a turf-like 69, 81 and 106 as the pace
figures for the race were a pokey -15 and -9. Slow-paced races rarely generate
high speed figures, so the 95 was a lot better than it looked. With Uncle Mo
coming to New York for the Wood Memorial (G1), Stay Thirsty could show up in the
Arkansas Derby (G1) or the Florida Derby (G1). Wherever Pletcher sends Brethren,
Stay Thirsty will probably go to the other race.
***
The world’s fastest horse will be on display late Friday night or early
Saturday morning, depending on where you live. Undefeated BLACK CAVIAR (Bel
Esprit) will contest the Newmarket H. (Aus-G1) at Flemington Racecourse in
Melbourne, Australia, down the straightaway at six furlongs. The last time she
ran this course and distance, she covered it in 1:07.96.
Last time out, Black Caviar won a five-furlong Group 1 stakes as easily as
possible by three lengths while covering her last 600 meters (about 3 furlongs)
in :32.95 while completely throttled down. She has to concede as much as 17
pounds to her rivals as she goes for her 10th straight victory. You can watch
the race on twinspires.com live as the 6TH of the Australia “A” card or you can
watch it the next day in the race replays section. Go back and watch her win
last out on February 18 in the Lightning S. (Aus-G1) as race 6A if you want to
see a filly totally dominate going five furlongs. She is one of the world’s most
amazing horses.