HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
MARCH 18, 2011
by Dick Powell
So, was the glass half full or half empty? Did UNCLE MO (Indian Charlie),
2010 juvenile champion and favorite for this year’s Kentucky Derby (G1), run a
race in Saturday’s Timely Writer S. at Gulfstream that will move him forward or
did it set him back?
When you look back at recent history, this will go down as one of the more
unusual prep races on the road to the Derby. Todd Pletcher called an audible a
few weeks ago and instead of running in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) going two
turns, he decided to take advantage of the Gulfstream Park race office’s
creation of a one-turn dirt mile stakes race that had no real conditions and
only minor weight penalties.
I’ve written many times that there is hardly any run-up to the timing pole in
one-mile dirt races at Gulfstream, which results in first quarters that seem
noticeably slow. But on Saturday, Uncle Mo’s first quarter of :25.53 was
crawling under any circumstances. This was not going to be the typical one-turn
mile stakes race where the first half is run around :46 and the second half
around :48. At least Uncle Mo showed that he can, in fact, rate early and run
slow fractions without resisting Johnny Velazquez’s urgings to slow down.
With a second quarter in :24.05, which is incredibly slow for Gulfstream as
they head down the backstretch with a full head of steam and usually go much
faster, Uncle Mo was just loping along in a way that I would deem the glass
being half empty. How much conditioning was he going to get out of this jog in
the park with only one other prep race scheduled?
Around the far turn, Velazquez began to ask him to pick it up a bit as
Rattlesnake Bridge (Tapit) mounted a bid on his outside. Uncle Mo ran his third
quarter in :24.13 and began to open up turning for home. And, it was here that
the glass began to look half full. Without a whole lot of encouragement from
Velazquez, Uncle Mo pulled away to win by 3 3/4 lengths while covering his last
quarter mile in :22.87.
That’s right, a last quarter in 22.87. And as they say on those infomercials
that are all over television, “But wait, there’s more!” After hitting the finish
line, Velazquez allowed Uncle Mo to get some more work in after the wire and he
galloped out another furlong around :13. Most observers had him covering 1 1/8
miles in around 1:49 and change. Granted, it was run mostly around one turn but
still, pretty remarkable.
If Uncle Mo did not run in the Timely Writer with all of us watching and
instead worked a mile at the crack of dawn going a mile in 1:36 and change with
a last quarter in :22 4/5, we would be anointing him as the second coming of
Seattle Slew. Yes, his final time of 1:36.56 was somewhat pedestrian but it was
not how fast he was going but how he was going fast.
The biggest handicapping lesson from the Timely Writer S. was how important
it is to watch races and understand the context that they are run in. If you
just went on his BRIS Speed ratings, you could draw many erroneous conclusions
about Uncle Mo’s effort.
Last year in his three starts, he earned BRIS Speed ratings of 110, 102 and
110. Now, he comes out at the age of three off a 126-day layoff and runs a 95.
Without knowing the circumstances of Saturday’s race, you could immediately
assume that he bounced off his last effort. Not all horses get better at the age
of three and with a speed rating way below any of his races last year run at
two, you could also assume that he hasn’t trained on this year and is not the
horse that he once was.
I’m not saying these conclusions are not true, if these are what you have
drawn. And the best Speed figure handicappers virtually ignore everything beyond
the figure and the pattern it fits into.
But the fact is that final Speed ratings are never fast when the early pace is
slow no matter how fast they finish. The big question for Uncle Mo is not how
fast he ran but how much he got out of the race and my answer is: enough.
*****
The world’s fastest horse was in action last Friday night in Australia and
she did not disappoint. BLACK CAVIAR (Bel Esprit) was undefeated in nine starts
and she was looking to make it a perfect 10 in the Newmarket H. (Aus-G1) at
Flemington Racecourse. Her chief rival, HAY LIST (Statue of Liberty), had to be
scratched the day before the race with a shoulder injury and it left 11 other
rivals, which included five individual Group 1 stakes winners, to try to give
her a race.
Carrying 128 pounds, Luke Nolen broke her beautifully and she raced forwardly
through the first half of the six-furlong sprint down the Flemington
straightaway. Without any discernible urging from Nolen, she took the lead with
about a quarter-mile to go and with a crack of the whip, she burst ahead of the
pace as has been her custom. As soon as she separated, Nolen had her in a
downshift as he tried to get her to slow down, but Black Caviar’s deceleration
is faster than the others’ all-out running.
Black Caviar hit the wire three lengths in front of last year’s Golden
Slipper S. (Aus-G1) winner Crystal Lily (Stratum), who was dismissed at 70-1
odds even though she has earned more than $2 million in her 10 career starts.
The final time of 1:07.36 was sensational and Black Caviar covered her last 600
meters (about three furlongs) in :32.67. Incredible!
After the race, Timeform, raised Black Caviar’s rating to 135, which not only
makes her the highest-rated sprinter in the world but one of the highest rated
in the past 60 years.
By the way, besides being able to watch these races on
twinspires.com, past
performances are available for free on
brisnet.com.