HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
MARCH 4, 2011
by Dick Powell
With the winter we have had this year in Saratoga, it’s hard to imagine that
there is only nine weeks to the first Saturday in May with most of the major
contenders only having one or two races before the Kentucky Derby (G1).
The South Florida road to the Derby heated up last Saturday with the running
of the Fountain of Youth S. (G2) at Gulfstream. The race was much anticipated as
the second-best horse of the 2008 crop, To Honor and Serve (Bernardini), was
making his seasonal debut for Bill Mott off two graded stakes wins at the end of
last year.
With more than enough graded earnings from last year, Mott was able to pick
his spots this year and he wanted no part of shorter races to get ready for the
10 furlongs of the Derby. The nine furlongs of the Fountain of Youth looked
perfect on paper but a funny thing happened on the way to the winner’s circle –
SOLDAT (War Front) showed up.
Gulfstream does not run that many nine-furlong races on the main track
anymore as many horsemen do not like the short run into the first turn and the
extreme bias against horses drawn outside. In eight weeks of racing this year,
there have only been 14 races run at the distance and even when most turf races
come off the turf, they are run at one mile and not 1 1/8 miles.
Looking at the BRIS Track Bias Stats in the Ultimate Past Performances, 36
percent of the 14 races run at nine furlongs were won gate to wire. More
surprisingly, the winner’s average beaten distance in lengths at the first call
was a sprint-like 1.9 lengths. The Post Bias shows a severe advantage to the
rail and to the horse’s that draw between posts 1 and 3.
The betting public took all this into account and made Soldat the 7-5
favorite with To Honor and Serve the second choice at 17-10 odds. In his last
start here at Gulfstream, Soldat dominated a first-level allowance field when he
gunned to the front from post 2 and cruised to a 10 3/4-length victory on a
sloppy track, stopping the teletimer for nine furlongs in 1:49.22 while earning
a career-best BRIS Speed rating of 108.
Here was Soldat again breaking from the inside in the Fountain of Youth with
Alan Garcia back in the irons and To Honor and Serve breaking from post 7.
Soldat was getting two pounds from his rival and all the ingredients, with the
exception of pari-mutuel value, were there.
Right from the start, Garcia sent Soldat to the lead and he opened up a
length through a first quarter in :24.34. He was pressed some on the outside by
80-1 longshot El Grayling (El Prado) with To Honor and Serve farther out while
racing three wide. Garcia maintained his advantage while slowing the middle half
down to :48.09, but nobody was able to pounce on him and force his hand.
Around the far turn, Johnny Velazquez moved up three wide and lapped on
Soldat with three furlongs to run. It looked like To Honor and Serve did it
willingly but he never was able to get ahead of Soldat as Garcia would loosen
just enough rein to keep his lead. As they hit the top of the stretch, To Honor
and Serve suddenly weakened as Soldat began to pull away with authority. He had
a three-length lead at the eighth pole and his only challenge came from Gourmet
Dinner (Trippi), who saved ground for most of the trip and pulled out to go
around To Honor and Serve to mount a mild challenge.
Soldat won by two lengths in 1:50.23 for the 1 1/8 miles and earned a BRIS
Speed rating of 104. Gourmet Dinner continues to outrun his pedigree and To
Honor and Serve was beaten almost seven lengths in third.
When you step back and put the Fountain of Youth in context, Soldat was not
as good as he looked and To Honor and Serve was not as bad as he looked. To
Honor and Serve does not have great gate speed so post 7 was going to be a
problem into the first turn. He raced wide most of the trip and came up empty in
the last five-sixteenths in his first start in 91 days. It did not look like
Velazquez rode him that hard through the lane and he should get a lot out of the
race.
One thing with Bill Mott, go back to last year’s Peter Pan S. (G2) when his
Drosselmeyer (Distorted Humor) was beaten six lengths by Fly Down (Mineshaft).
When the big money was on the line in the Belmont Stakes (G1), Drosselmeyer came
back to beat Fly Down. If you are a To Honor and Serve fan, nothing happened on
Saturday that was out of the ordinary that should cause you to like him any
less. I would love to see him go to the Fair Grounds for the Louisiana Derby
(G2), now at 1 1/8 miles, on March 26 and get out of Gulfstream.
Juvenile champion UNCLE MO (Indian Charlie) will make his seasonal debut on
March 12 in the Timely Writer S. going a mile at Gulfstream. From there, it is
expected that he will go to Aqueduct where he will use the Wood Memorial (G1) as
his final Derby prep so Soldat doesn’t have to worry about him showing up in the
Florida Derby on April 2 and taking away his pace advantage.
The final leg of the Al Maktoum Challenge (UAE-G2) was run Thursday at Meydan
and the race lived up to its billing. The expected favorite, Bold Silvano
(Silvano [Ger]), bruised a foot this week and when he missed a few days of
training, Mike de Kock did not enter him. Instead, he will train him up to the
$10 million Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1) on March 26. With no Bold Silvano in the
race, de Kock entered Musir (Redoute’s Choice) instead of running him in the
one-mile Burj Nahaar (UAE-G3). And, with South African horse of the year Irish
Flame (Dynasty) not liking the turf course at Meydan in two starts, he decided
to put him on the Tapeta and try the main track in the Maktoum Challenge.
A field of 14 was entered and the North American betting public made Musir
the 6-5 betting favorite breaking from the rail with Christophe Soumillon.
Second in the betting at 4-1 was the highest rated horse in the race, TWICE OVER
(GB) (Observatory), who was making his seasonal debut from post 13 for Henry
Cecil.
The quandary in analyzing Twice Over’s chances on Thursday was how hard he
would be ridden knowing that a race with a purse 33 times higher was awaiting
him in three weeks. Yes, he could win on class alone as he is that good. But,
there were serious doubts about how fit he was going into the race and post 13
would only make it more unlikely that he would be ridden hard to try to overcome
it.
Despite all of the above, Tom Queally had Twice Over on the far outside for
most of the 1 1/4 miles and surged to the lead in the stretch. His acceleration
was terrific and he coasted to a 2 3/4-length win over Musir, who narrowly held
off Gitano Hernando (Hernando) for the place. All three horses distinguished
themselves and the other 11 horses that will face them on March 26 better have
their running shoes on.
In last year’s third round of the Makoum Challenge, the Dubai World Cup
winner, Gloria de Campeao (Brz) was second behind Japanese filly Red Desire
(Jpn) (Manhattan Cafe), with World Cup runner-up up Lizard’s Desire in fifth and
third-place finisher Allybar (King’s Best) finishing fourth. Thus, I wouldn’t
quite anoint Twice Over as the one to beat in the Dubai World Cup, but he was
certainly impressive Thursday.