HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
MARCH 25, 2011
by Dick Powell
The world’s richest horse race will be run Saturday from Meydan Racecourse in
Dubai for the 16th time. This year’s renewal of the Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1) should
be one of the best ever with a deep and talented field comprised of horses from
all over the world.
The purse of $10 million is always going to attract many horses that are willing to make
the trip to the Middle East. Racing over the synthetic Tapeta further attracts some
of the best turf horses in the world as they are able to race on it with
confidence that they will get the traction they need without having to deal with
the kickback of dirt tracks. The end result is Saturday’s 14-horse field is
as good as there will be in the world this year.
The morning line that you will see in your past performances is done by me. I
use the form guide that can be found on Emirates Racing’s
website,
which only has five past performance lines. But I am very familiar with the odds these
horses have been going off at during the Dubai International Racing Carnival.
During the Carnival, about half the betting pool is from America while the
rest is mostly comprised of betting from South Africa. But on Dubai World Cup
day, about 90 percent of the betting is from North America. That said, the bettors are
pretty sophisticated in that they do not automatically gravitate to the
American-based horses and put their money with the horses with the best chance
of winning and not nationalistic leanings.
I made TWICE OVER (GB) (Observatory) the lukewarm 4-1 favorite. I would have had
him lower based on his terrific win at Meydan in the Round 3 of the Al
Maktoum Challenge (UAE-G2) on March 3, but he drew post 12 for Saturday and will have
to race outside for most of the trip. He was great three weeks ago but I am a
bit suspicious of him being able to repeat that effort at the age of six. A lot
of times older horses run their best race off the layoff and then go downhill
from there so I am negative on Twice Over’s chances on Saturday but still think
he will take a lot of money.
In examining Meydan’s past performances, which are available from
Brisnet,
you will notice in the comment lines of the horses that there is not
much speed in this year’s race. Last year, GLORIA DE CAMPEAO (Brz) (Impression) was
able to go gate-to-wire to pull off the upset. I don’t see anyone doing that on
Saturday but if anyone can do it, look for MONTEROSSO (Dubawi) to get loose on
an easy lead.
Part of the Godolphin contingent, Monterosso won the King Edward VII S.
(Eng-G2) last year
going 12 furlongs on the turf and was a good fourth in the Irish Derby (Ire-G1). He
showed up during the Carnival and won the 1 9/16-mile Dubai City of Gold
(UAE-G2) on the turf and has
consistently shown solid gate speed. He won two races on the lead early last
year over Lingfield’s all-weather track, so he should have no trouble
handling the Tapeta. Mahmood Al Zarooni has had an awesome 12-month start to his
training career and one thing that seems to be his strength is his horses
running long. The immensely talented young rider, Mickael Barzalona, returns in
the irons.
Another horse that I think has a big shot is the second choice on the morning
line, MUSIR (Redoute’s Choice), who comes from the lethal combination of Mike de
Kock and Christophe Soumillon. He won three times on the Tapeta here last year,
including a spectacular win in the UAE Derby (UAE-G2) going 1 3/16 miles while carrying
131 pounds.
This year, he’s been pointing for this race throughout the Carnival. He was a
good second to the talented SKYSURFERS (E Dubai), who is entered in the
Godolphin Mile (UAE-G2), going a mile when he had some
traffic problems, then was second to Twice Over last out in the Maktoum
Challenge. In that race, Twice Over got the jump on him turning for home and Musir could not make up the deficit.
I can’t imagine that de Kock had him cranked up for a 100 percent effort that
day so there should still be some improvement for this. Musir drew perfectly in
post 7 and he just looks like a horse that will be at his best on Saturday
with the big money on the line. De Kock narrowly lost last year’s World Cup when
Lizard’s Desire (Lizard Island) missed by a nose and I don’t think he’s taking
any chances this year.
But the horse I have on top of my picks for this year’s Dubai World Cup is
10-1 VICTOIRE PISA (Neo Universe) from Japan. One of their top three-year-olds last year,
his best races have come at 10 furlongs. He tried the Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) last Ocotber in Paris but came up short. The grandson of Sunday
Silence went
back to Japan and ran third in the Japan Cup (Jpn-G1) going 12 furlongs and won the Arima Kinen (Jpn-G1) when he got the jump on BUENA VISTA (Special Week) and held off
her late charge in the short stretch of Nakayama.
Victoire Pisa came back four weeks ago and won the Nakayama Kinen (Jpn-G2) going nine
furlongs in very fast time. He breaks from post 6, has some tactical speed and
I think that he will be the one to make the first move to get the jump on the
deep closers. He oozes class and should be able to handle the Tapeta. At
generous odds, he’s a great bet for Saturday. I like Victoire Pisa over Musir
and Monterosso.
*****
I was fortunate enough to attend last Saturday’s Rebel S. (G2) at Oaklawn
Park. The main track was blazing-fast and the blazing-fast THE FACTOR (War
Front) was able to gun to the front and cruise to an easy victory in his
two-turn debut. As much as he fit the track conditions, The Factor was awesome
and now will continue on the path to the first Saturday in May.
What was most impressive about the Factor was how easily he made the lead but
was able to settle nicely. It’s not easy to ask a horse for speed going into the
first turn while trying to get him to rate but The Factor looked like he was an
old hand going around two turns and relaxed as easily as could be. There were
more than 34,000 fans at Oaklawn on Saturday, so he showed he can handle large crowds,
ship across the country and handle two turns with ease. You couldn’t ask for a
better result and if you are Bob Baffert you are having visions of War Emblem.
*****
Elizabeth Taylor died on Wednesday at the age of 79 and there have been
wonderful tributes to her career. But, her role as Velvet Brown in “National
Velvet” was her most memorable for me. Has anyone ever captured the relationship
between girls and horses better than Taylor did? I know you could get diabetes
watching this sugary movie but try watching it and not rooting like hell for Pie
in the Grand National.