KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT
MARCH 18, 2011
by James Scully
UNCLE MO (Indian Charlie) launched his three-year-old season with an easy
victory in the Timely Writer S. at Gulfstream Park and the unbeaten champ will
receive his final prep for the Kentucky Derby (G1) in the April 9 Wood Memorial
(G1). Saturday’s performance won’t change many opinions about him — his
supporters were thrilled with the impressive showing while his detractors still
don’t like his chance at 1 1/4 miles.
PREMIER PEGASUS (Fusaichi Pegasus) turned the San Felipe S. (G2) at Santa
Anita into a rout, winning by a record 7 3/4-length margin over the
late-rallying JAYCITO (Victory Gallop), and the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) produced a
surprising conclusion with the 43-1 WATCH ME GO (West Acre) edging the 86-1
CRIMSON KNIGHT (Leroidesanimaux [Brz]) by a neck. The 1-2 favorite, BRETHREN
(Distorted Humor), was 3 1/4 lengths back in third.
The Derby is seven weeks from Saturday.
Timely Writer
Uncle Mo returned against a group of maiden winners at a one-turn mile
distance tailor-made for his natural speed, and his connections are taking the
easiest route possible to the Derby, with a likely short field of second- or
third-stringers awaiting him at Aqueduct in the Wood. And while he’s probably
five lengths better than any other three-year-old at distances up to 1 1/8
miles, some people feel 10 furlongs will be the equalizer that sets him up for
defeat.
I’m wondering how they’ll beat him. Uncle Mo appears to have filled out
nicely this year — his rear end looked bigger in the post parade — and his
stride through the stretch was once again tremendous. He covers a lot of ground
in an efficient manner.
It’s exciting to see Uncle Mo motoring for home. The Timely Writer was
basically a trial race, but Uncle Mo ran his last quarter-mile in :22 4/5 and
actually faced a little adversity when the rival to his immediate outside
slammed into him at the start. He was off slowly but quickly recovered, and
jockey John Velazquez rode him out an extra furlong after finish line. The Todd
Pletcher-trained colt wasn’t tired heading back to the winner’s circle.
We’re still nearly two months out, but the quality of the three-year-old
division remains questionable at this stage. The final prep races will be
critical. Right now, there isn’t much separating the likes of DIALED IN
(Mineshaft), SOLDAT (War Front), STAY THIRSTY (Bernardini), Jaycito, Premier
Pegasus and perhaps a few others — they could take turns beating each other for
second behind the only superb talent, Uncle Mo.
But the Wood could expose flaws in Uncle Mo’s armor or other developments can
change the landscape. It’s too early to be drawing definitive conclusions.
Tampa Bay Derby
Watch Me Go ran for a $75,000 claiming tag two starts before the Tampa Bay
Derby, winning a 6 1/2-furlong sprint by eight lengths over the Oldsmar,
Florida, oval. He was unplaced in his first four stakes attempts, including a
non-threatening fifth at 45-1 odds in December’s Inaugural S., but did enter the
Tampa Bay Derby off an encouraging third in the February 12 Sam F. Davis S.
(G3), his first start around two turns.
The dark bay colt recorded a career-best effort in his second try at a route
Saturday, advancing into contention on the far turn before wearing down a game
Crimson Knight, and Watch Me Go now has the graded earnings ($232,500) to make
the Derby field.
Conditioned by Kathleen O’Connell, the Florida-bred is out of a Deputy
Minister mare so it’s no surprise to see him handle the 1 1/16-mile distance,
but his affinity for the Tampa Bay oval, coupled with Brethren tossing in a
clunker, contributed mightily to the upset. Watch Me Go received a 95 BRIS Speed
rating.
The runner-up effort of Crimson Knight was baffling — he broke his maiden
for a $25,000 tag on December 26 and was claimed for only $16,000 from his
previous outing, a 1 1/16-mile turf affair on February 24. And he ran a big race
in defeat Saturday, doing all the dirty work for Watch Me Go by chasing Brethren
during the early stages. After disposing of Brethren just inside the eighth
pole, the Gerald Bennett trainee came up a little short in the final strides.
Claiming him for $16,000 proved to be a very savvy and profitable move by his
current connections, but Crimson Knight did not the flatter the formerly
well-regarded Derby prospect Brethren.
I was expecting a move forward from Brethren, who earned only a 94 BRIS Speed
rating when defeating a weak field in the Sam F. Davis, but he went backward on
Saturday. The Pletcher pupil will attempt to rebound in the April 16 Arkansas
Derby (G1).
Brethren will follow the same path of half-brother Super Saver, who wound up
third at 1-2 in the Tampa Bay Derby two starts prior to winning the Kentucky
Derby, but Super Saver had two-year-old stakes foundation that Brethren lacks,
recording a fourth in the Champagne (G1) prior to a five-length victory in the
Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). And Super Saver didn’t finish behind a couple of
claimers when running a game race in defeat at Tampa.
San Felipe
Premier Pegasus began to swoop past rivals on the far turn of the San Felipe,
stormed to the lead in upper stretch and poured it on all the way to the wire,
establishing himself as a leading Derby contender out West. He won his first
three starts last year in front-running fashion, including the seven-furlong
Hollywood Prevue (G3), but his ability to rate in midpack behind a wicked early
pace (:21 3/5 and :44 2/5) served him well on Saturday.
Bred, owned and trained by Myung Kwon Cho, Premier Pegasus figured to receive
plenty of stamina from his Kentucky Derby-winning sire and displayed a nice turn of foot
while making his two-turn debut in the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe. His 100 BRIS
Speed rating was a little disappointing, but he did post his final five-sixteenths
in
:31 2/5, and he’s eligible to keep showing more at longer distances.
Premier Pegasus will be the horse to beat if he runs back in the April 9
Santa Anita Derby (G1), but Cho is also considering the Arkansas Derby.
Jaycito ran well in his first start since a troubled effort in the Breeders’
Cup Juvenile (G1) in which he tried to bolt and exited the race with a chipped
tooth, and the Grade 1 winner may continue to build upon Saturday’s positive
performance. Transferred to three-time Derby winner Bob Baffert over the winter,
the bay colt dropped to the rear of the 10-horse field and left himself with plenty
to do at the top of the lane.
Jaycito ran by most of the field in the stretch, finishing 1 1/4 length clear
of BENCH POINTS (Benchmark) in third, and Baffert will continue to tighten the
screws for his final prep. He has the pedigree to flourish at 10 furlongs as
well as a dangerous conditioner. While he took the blinkers off for the San
Felipe, they’ll be back on for the Santa Anita Derby.
Rebel Preview
Saturday’s Rebel S. (G2) at Oaklawn Park is the only graded stakes for
three-year-olds this weekend and a deep field of 13 is set for the 1 1/16-mile
event. I give six of the runners a legitimate chance at the win.
THE FACTOR (War Front) will make his two-turn debut for Baffert following a
pair of sensational victories sprinting at Santa Anita. The speedball may be
geared toward shorter distances, but his pedigree is suitable for the trip and
The Factor is a threat to shake loose early and rate on the lead beneath Martin
Garcia. I don’t like him for the Derby, but I won’t dismiss his chances on the
front end in the Rebel.
SWAY AWAY (Afleet Alex) also invades from Southern California. The Jeff Bonde
pupil returned from a 6 1/2-month layoff with an encouraging second to The
Factor in the
seven-furlong San Vicente (G2), offering a visually impressive late rally, and
he’ll stretch out for the first time on Saturday. He’s an obvious candidate to
handle the added ground with his breeding and his BRIS numbers are strong, but I
think Sway Away will be overbet off perhaps a false finish last time.
Sway Away was still last turning for home in the San Vicente and the front
runners were coming back to him in the stretch after an opening half-mile in :43
2/5. I’ve seen a lot of horses offer a similar move, rallying dramatically for a
minor award while not seriously threatening the winner, and they seldom improve
upon the effort with a victory in their next start. Sway Away can’t afford to
leave himself too much to do in the Rebel stretch, but he’s eligible to
outperform my expectations.
J P’S GUSTO (Successful Appeal) was in tight during the short stretch run of
the Southwest (G3) but managed to finish up well for second once clear. The
Grade 1 winner could find the 1 1/16-mile distance within his scope and must be
viewed as a dangerous stalk-and-pounce candidate with Ramon Dominguez, but he’s
zero-for-four in two-turn races.
ELITE ALEX (Afleet Alex), who has been favorably compared to Derby winner
Street Sense by jockey Calvin Borel, rallied into a threatening position at the
top of the Southwest stretch but lacked the needed rally, settling for third. He was
fanned six wide, but it marked the second straight start where he came up a
little short in the final furlong. On the flip side, the Tim Ritchey trainee
gained valuable stakes seasoning that afternoon and should receive a more
favorable pace set-up in the Rebel. Elite Alex could be along in time.
Southwest winner ARCHARCHARCH (Arch) will look to secure favorable early
positioning from his rail post. He broke his
maiden three starts back in the six-furlong Sugar Bowl S. at Fair Grounds and
exited a disappointing fourth-place effort in the Smarty Jones with a foot
problem that quickly healed. The Jinks Fires charge was overlooked at 14-1 last
time and could offer decent value once again in the Rebel. I like what I’ve seen from the improving colt and will use him in any multi-race wagers.
ALTERNATION (Distorted Humor) is my top pick. Following a seven-length maiden
win at Remington Park in December, trainer Donnie Von Hemel resisted the urge to
throw his colt straight into stakes waters, electing to run him in a pair of
allowance events at Oaklawn. The late runner responded with two excellent wins,
defeating Elite Alex the first time and Smarty Jones runner-up Dreaminofthewin
(Successful Appeal) in the latter, and he’s posted two recent bullet works in
preparation for his stakes debut. Alternation is well drawn in post 2 and should
be in full flight after the leaders on the far turn. I think he can carry his
momentum forward in the stretch for a minor upset.
Enjoy the racing.