KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT
MARCH 25, 2011
by James Scully
With an emphatic 6 1/4-length win in the Rebel S. (G2), THE FACTOR (War Front)
became a dangerous contender for the Kentucky Derby (G1). The rest of the field
will have to catch him.
Distance remains a potential stumbling block for The Factor — it’s difficult
to imagine a colt running six furlongs in 1:06.98 winning the Kentucky Derby at
1 1/4 miles four months later — but give him credit for a terrific performance in
his two-turn debut.
Three graded races, including the $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2), will be
offered this weekend. The Derby is six weeks from Saturday.
Rebel
The Factor ran a half-mile in :43 2/5 before winning by a diminishing
three-quarters of a length in the seven-furlong San Vicente (G2) on February 20,
his first start since his aforementioned maiden special weight victory in late
December. He was given the opportunity to ration his quickness in the 1
1/16-mile Rebel and received the perfect set-up, running loose on the lead on a
speed-favoring track at Oaklawn Park.
He went right to the front as expected and was clear by 2 1/2 lengths upon
completing the opening quarter-mile in :23 1/5. His next splits, :46 3/5 and
1:10 4/5, were very manageable on the ultra-quick surface, and The Factor
settled nicely for jockey Martin Garcia as he cruised along the backstretch
unopposed. He found another gear after turning into the stretch, widening his
advantage in the final furlongs, and his final time of 1:42.19 was nearly
identical to Havre de Grace (Saint Liam), a Grade 1-winning mare with loads more
seasoning who impressively captured the Azeri S. (G3) one race earlier.
It was an encouraging two-turn debut to say the least, but The Factor didn’t
prove he could last 1 1/4 miles on Derby Day. He just opened the door to the
possibility.
His pedigree is respectable for a Derby contender. From the first crop of the
Danzig stallion War Front, who is also responsible for Derby contender Soldat,
The Factor is out of a mare by Miswaki, sire of Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner
Black Tie Affair. Miswaki is by Mr. Prospector.
The Factor wasn’t predetermined to be a sprinter, but his brilliance at
shorter distances indicated a preference. That kind of speed doesn’t win the
Kentucky Derby typically, but there are exceptions. Trainer Bob Baffert has
mentioned 2004 Derby winner Smarty Jones as one to emulate and the Hall of Fame
conditioner has first-hand experience, preparing the speedy War Emblem for a
wire-to-wire Derby coup in 2002.
The Factor received a 106 BRIS Speed rating in the Rebel, the best two-turn
number of any Derby contender this year. He’s now headed to the 1 1/8-mile
Arkansas Derby (G1) on April 16, and his bandwagon will continue to grow with
another front-running victory
CALEB’S POSSE (Posse) didn’t flatter the opposition with his runner-up
performance. Overlooked at 24-1 following a well-beaten sixth in the Southwest
S. (G3), the Donnie Von Hemel trainee was the only late runner to make any
impact on the final outcome, launching a five-wide rally on the far turn into
contention. He could be a major factor in a race like the Derby Trial (G3) on
Churchill’s opening-day program.
ARCHARCHARCH (Arch) didn’t run back to his winning Southwest form, checking in third
after being out-finished in the stretch. He was third early and basically held
his positioning in a one-paced effort. SARATOGA RED (Eddington), a debut maiden
winner in the slop on February 24, showed a little speed early and managed to
save fourth.
SWAY AWAY (Afleet Alex) never got untracked from off the pace and finished a
disappointing sixth in his two-turn debut. Trainer Jeff Bonde will give the San
Vicente runner-up another opportunity to earn his way into the Derby field.
ALTERNATION (Distorted Humor) never got the opportunity to make his stakes
bow. A two-time allowance winner at Oaklawn Park, the promising colt washed out
in the post parade and wound up being scratched after acting up terribly in the
starting gate.
Previews
MUCHO MACHO MAN (Macho Uno) posted a 1 1/2-length score in the February 19
Risen Star S. (G2) at Fair Grounds and will be the one to beat in Saturday’s
Louisiana Derby. The Kathy Ritvo pupil already has experience at the
nine-furlong distance, recording a second in the Remsen S. (G2) last November,
and will be forwardly placed from the start with jockey Rajiv Maragh.
There isn’t a preponderance of speed in the 13-horse field, but that doesn’t
eliminate the possibility of a legitimate set-up if two or three runners come
out gunning it for the early lead. MACHEN (Distorted Humor) and ELITE ALEX
(Afleet Alex) will both drop back to the rear of the field and look to make
their presence felt in the stretch drive.
I’m going with Machen for top honors. The three-year-old opened his racing
career with a pair of easy wins at Fair Grounds this year but faced a whole
different level of competition when making his stakes debut in the Risen Star.
After offering a solid run to reach a striking position at the top of the
stretch, the Neil Howard colt lacked the sufficient finishing kick, holding his
position in a fourth-placed effort. That was a valuable learning experience for
the improving chestnut. Machen loves the Fair Grounds oval and I’m anticipating
a better-timed move on Saturday that carries him to the winner’s circle.
Elite Alex scratched from the Rebel in favor of the Louisiana Derby and is in
a similar situation to Machen. He came up a little short when making his first
stakes attempt, and third lifetime start, in the Southwest last out, rallying
into a threatening position on the final bend before being fanned six wide into
the lane, and the Tim Ritchey trainee will try to improve off the experience.
His BRIS numbers are commendable and Calvin Borel accompanies the
dangerous late runner, but Elite Alex will have to overcome post 11.
Mucho Macho Man has to be in the mix betting-wise, but he hasn’t shown much
willingness to rate during the early stages of his races. He could find himself
under a stranglehold or risks exerting too much energy if the pace is hot, but
it’s hard to knock his form. But I’ll try to beat him for the win at very short
odds.
LEFT (Arch) is an intriguing possibility for trainer Al Stall Jr. Unbeaten in
two career starts, he finished up full of run when capturing a February 26
allowance/optional claiming event at Fair Grounds and will attempt to make an
impact from just off the pace in his stakes debut. However, the lightly-raced
prospect wasn’t done any
favors in post 10.
Saturday’s $500,000 Spiral S. (G3) on Turfway Park’s Polytrack will feature a
well-matched field of 12 attempting to earn a spot in the Derby starting gate,
and POSITIVE RESPONSE (Pomeroy) looks tough to beat. After finishing third in
the El Camino Real Derby (G3), the Bill Morey-trained gelding shipped to Turfway
for an easy seven-length score in the local prep, the March 5 John Battaglia
Memorial S. He’s never run a poor one around two turns, compiling a 5-4-0-1
mark, and Positive Response doesn’t figure to face much pressure on the front
end of the nine-furlong event.
ANIMAL KINGDOM (Leroidesanimaux [Brz]) lacks seasoning, but the Graham Motion
runner showed an affinity for Polytrack when nicely breaking his maiden at
Keeneland two starts back and received a useful tightener for his stakes debut,
recording a head second in a deep Gulfstream Park turf allowance. The chestnut
recovered after missing the break that afternoon and has the tactical speed to
sit a favorable trip Saturday under Alan Garcia.
KING CONGIE (Badge of Silver) will bring highly respectable turf form into
the Spiral and Turfway stakes winner TWINSPIRED (Harlan’s Holiday) should
appreciate the additional distance. Both colts merit consideration in the
Spiral.
Sunday’s $800,000 Sunland Derby won’t feature the most talented field when 11
line up in the New
Mexico desert, and Grade 3 winner ASTROLOGY (A.P. Indy) could be odds-on in his
2011 opener. The Steve Asmussen charge will make his first start since a
close second in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) last fall and Julien Leparoux
will be in for the mount, but I’ll try to beat him at short odds. Astrology doesn’t
appear to be the most durable individual, returning to the worktab this year in
February, and he’ll have to overcome post 11 in his first start at nine
furlongs. He’s never earned a top BRIS Speed rating in five career starts and looks
vulnerable Sunday.
I’m leaning toward SUPREME RULER (Don’t Get Mad) in his stakes debut. The
Jinks Fires colt broke his maiden at first asking on January 15, rallying from
far back to win going away in a one-mile event at Oaklawn Park, and exits a head
second in his first start against winners. Supreme Ruler’s BRIS Speed and Late
Pace numbers are as good as any in the field, he shows a six-furlong bullet work
in preparation and the bay sophomore figures to receive a favorable pace
scenario. Oaklawn shippers also have recent history in this event, with
Endorsement posting an impressive victory last year following a maiden special
weight score at the Hot Springs, Arkansas, track.
Maiden winners SINAI (Rockport Harbor) and NACHO SAINT (Yes It’s True) also
offer some appeal in the Sunland Derby.
Enjoy the racing.