The 1 1/16-mile Rebel shapes up as a true test for the highly-regarded colt.
Named for O’Reilly’s top-rated cable news program, The Factor has sizzled in
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The Factor battled foot issues in January and, as a result, lost valuable
training time. Baffert transferred him across town to Hollywood Park, where he
was able to get in two works on the Cushion Track in advance of the San Vicente.
Despite not being perfectly fit for the seven-furlong affair, The Factor burned
off his pace rivals through torrid fractions, opened up a 1 1/2-length
advantage, and had enough left to stave off the furious rally of Sway Away by
three-quarters of a length. The result was flattered when San Vicente
third-placer Premier Pegasus (Fusaichi Pegasus) came back to romp in last
Saturday’s San Felipe S. (G2). Yet, a contrarian could contend that The Factor’s
task was aided considerably by the track bias in favor of speed.
With a pedigree and running style that prompt questions about his stamina,
The Factor sets out to prove that he can harness his natural speed over a route
of ground. He has drawn in the middle of the field, in post 6, and should have
little difficulty in securing the early lead with Baffert’s go-to rider Martin
Garcia. The only other Rebel entrant who might attempt to go with him early is
the Wayne Lukas-trained SARATOGA RED (Eddington), a debut winner going a mile
here in the slop on February 24.
The Factor, who arrived at Oaklawn Wednesday, galloped about 1 1/2 miles at
around 8:15 a.m. (CDT) Thursday.
“He got over the track good this morning,” assistant trainer Jim Barnes said.
“He just jumps such a long way out there. He has a huge stride.”
Sway Away will also be stretching out to two turns for the first time, but
his pedigree and running style suggest that he’ll improve with added distance. A
hard-charging runner-up to J P’s Gusto in the August 8 Best Pal S. (G2) at Del
Mar, Sway Away was sidelined for the next six months until the San Vicente. The
Jeff Bonde trainee trailed early in that sprint, but uncorked a huge move down
the stretch to reach contention. Although drawing up to The Factor’s flank, he
could not get any closer, and must hope that the change of venue, and longer
trip, will help him turn the tables. Garrett Gomez renews his partnership with
the deep closer, who will break from post 9.
Sway Away is not the only son of Afleet Alex who bids to erase his sire’s bad
memories of the Rebel. Afleet Alex suffered the only unplaced effort of his
career in the 2005 Rebel, finishing an uncharacteristic last before being
diagnosed with a lung infection, and the champion sends out two potential
avengers Saturday.
The other is ELITE ALEX (Afleet Alex), who has had more than his share of bad
luck this meet at Oaklawn. Conditioned by his sire’s trainer, Tim Ritchey, Elite
Alex virtually lost all chance when breaking awkwardly in a January 15
allowance/optional claimer. Yet he regrouped and nearly pulled off the victory,
just being outdueled by ALTERNATION (Distorted Humor). In the Southwest, Elite
Alex was compromised in a different way. Parked out wide throughout, he got up
for third. The two losses have not discouraged his rider, Calvin Borel. The
winner of three of the past four runnings of the Kentucky Derby, Borel has said
that Elite Alex reminds him of Street Sense, the 2007 Derby champ. His luck
didn’t improve at the Rebel draw, however, for he wound up in post 10.
Fires will nearly have the field surrounded, for his other contender,
“They’ve got us wedged pretty well down in there,” Fires said of
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J P’s Gusto is entitled to move forward in his second start for new trainer
Joe Petalino. Previously based in Southern California with David Hofmans, the
bay was an accomplished two-year-old last season. Besides his Best Pal victory
over Sway Away, he also garnered such notable events as the Del Mar Futurity
(G1) and Hollywood Juvenile Championship (G3). J P’s Gusto was not as successful
when stepping up to 1 1/16 miles, finishing second in the Norfolk S. (G1) and
CashCall Futurity (G1) and sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). He was
switched to Petalino’s barn in order to compete in Oaklawn’s stakes series for
three-year-olds, and opened his campaign with a troubled second in the
Southwest. Ramon Dominguez once again flies in for the mount aboard J P’s Gusto,
who will break just to the inside of The Factor from post 5.
PICKO’S PRIDE (Cactus Ridge) was another who met trouble in an eventful
running of the Southwest, with the 79-1 longshot having to wait in traffic en
route to his fourth-place effort. Caleb’s Posse, the Smarty Jones winner, didn’t
have clear running room either at the decisive juncture and checked in sixth.
Though the Southwest didn’t pan out well for Caleb’s Posse, trainer Donnie
Von Hemel’s other promising colt, Alternation, impressed in an allowance on the
same Presidents’ Day program. The Pin Oak Stable homebred swept to a convincing
3 1/4-length score over Dreaminofthewin at this same 1 1/16-mile trip, and in
the process, fueled speculation about how he might have done in the Southwest.
The patient strategy could pay off in the end for Alternation, who brings a
three-race winning streak into his stakes debut.
Trainer Tony Dutrow has taken a similarly cautious approach with J W Blue. A
last-to-first allowance winner at this track and distance on January 29, he
opted to skip the Southwest. J W Blue enters the Rebel off a 49-day freshening,
but must overcome being marooned in the far outside post.
Two Rebel entrants have already been scratched: Glint (Sharp Humor), who
would have been wheeling back on just 14 days’ rest following his third in the
March 5 Mountain Valley S., and Smarty Jones runner-up Dreaminofthewin.
J W Blue and Bluegrass Jam were coupled as a two-horse mutuel field
because 13 horses were originally entered, and Oaklawn’s infield toteboard only has space for 12 betting interests.