Kentucky Derby Report

KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT

APRIL 8, 2011

by James Scully

With his victory in Sunday's Florida Derby, Dialed In will

bring momentum into this year's Kentucky Derby. The Florida Derby was the

most important Derby prep to date and Dialed In notched his first win at two

turns with another stirring late run. He's trained by a two-time Derby winner,

Nick Zito, a Hall of Famer who lights up the Derby atmosphere with his positive

energy, summoning all the mojo he can with tales of lore and divine

intervention.

"He's a gift from God," Zito says with a measure of reverence in his voice.

Dialed In has performed well at Churchill Downs, impressively winning his

career debut last November. He runs last to first with an explosive kick. Owner

Robert LaPenta and Zito came so close last year with Ice Box, narrowly missing

following a furious stretch rally, and Ice Box also captured the Florida Derby.

But the 2010 Derby runner-up isn't in the same class of Dialed In, according to Zito.

"It's a blessing how amazing this horse is," Zito noted. "I've had a lot of

great horses, but with this particular horse there's something about him, the

horse's courage, the way he is.

"He's amazing and I'm blessed."

Dialed In figures to be the second choice in the Derby regardless of what

happens in the remaining preps. His popularity will continue to rise in the

coming weeks if he trains well, as expected, in preparation for the ultimate

goal. Forget the Breeders' Cup or any other races; it's all about winning the

Kentucky Derby for Zito. And with only four races to his credit, Dialed In

generates the sentiment that the best is yet to come. Zito believes the "special

colt" will take him back to the promised land on Derby Day.

The probable Derby favorite, undefeated juvenile champion Uncle Mo, will receive his final tune-up in Saturday's Wood Memorial at

Aqueduct. There are no graded stakes winners among his nine rivals, only

questionable three-year-olds. But the competition isn't as bad as the Illinois

Derby field, which drew four maidens. The 9-2 second choice on the morning

line, El Grayling, was eased at 80-1 in the Fountain of Youth.

Saturday's Santa Anita Derby will be an important prep for Jaycito, who highlights a 10-horse field due to the withdrawal of the injured

Premier Pegasus.

The Derby is four weeks from Saturday.

Florida Derby

Dialed In was in no hurry leaving the starting gate and was immediately

guided over to the rail to save ground in the eight-horse field, five-to-six

lengths behind his nearest rival during the opening five-eighths of a mile. The

rest were all bunched up in a pack, with Shackleford surprisingly

leading the way at 68-1 with a short advantage.

Shackleford broke his maiden wire to wire in his second career start at Churchill

Downs last November. Freshened for a little more than two months, he reappeared

at Gulfstream Park in a nine-furlong entry-level allowance on February 5,

winning by a length in front-running fashion. But with relatively low Early Pace

numbers, it wasn't surprising to see him switch to rating tactics in his stakes

debut, the Fountain of Youth on February 26. Shackleford recorded a

non-threatening fifth, beaten 23 1/2 lengths.

Nobody could have expected the speed he displayed in the Florida Derby,

leading the way through early splits in :23 1/5, :46 1/5 and 1:10 3/5. The pace

was hot and Shackleford's E1 and E2 Pace figures -- 102 and 112 -- were easily

career bests.

Hutcheson winner Flashpoint was the expected pacesetter, but

he broke outwardly from post 8 and jockey Cornelio Velasquez made little attempt

to hustle his mount to the front. Flashpoint traveled wide into the first turn

and settled into a stalking position in third, about a length back of

Shackleford, for the run down the backstretch.

To Honor and Serve received a perfect trip in second and

appeared set for a serious assault entering the far turn before coming up

woefully short in the final furlongs, finishing third with no visible excuse. It

was a 6 3/4-length gap from runner-up Shackleford. With his breeding and

two-year-old class, To Honor and Serve rated as a top Derby contender entering

2011, but his stock has dropped precipitously. Trainer Bill Mott will look to

regroup this summer if his colt comes up empty once again at Churchill Downs.

Shackleford, To Honor and Serve and Flashpoint were 1-2-3 most of the way and

remained in the same positioning after being overhauled by Dialed In.

Shackleford, who won't race again before the May 7 Derby, has only $212,000 in

graded earnings and with big paydays still to come in Kentucky, New York,

Arkansas, California and Illinois for other hopefuls, the Dale Romans-trained

colt will need a number of defections to make the 20-horse Derby field.

Flashpoint has no chance with his $140,000 graded bankroll, but trainer Richard

Dutrow may opt to run the gray colt once more in pursuit of a coveted Derby

post.

Dialed In was visually impressive, but came home in a moderate 13 seconds.

His final time of 1:50 was nearly a full second slower than Kentucky Oaks contender R Heat Lightning needed to win the Gulfstream Oaks a day

earlier. Dialed In received a 101 BRIS Speed rating in the Florida Derby, three

points lower than the Speed number he earned for winning the one-mile Holy Bull

on January 30.

His Speed numbers are still respectable, and I don't put much stock into his

final time or figure. Dialed In is a dynamic closer who appears more susceptible

in a race with little pace. And pace won't be an issue in the Derby. His

inexperience is a concern -- deep closers have more to deal with than

lightly-raced speed horses in a bulky field -- but it may not matter. Fusaichi

Pegasus rallied to capture the 2000 Derby from the tail of the field and had

only four career starts beforehand.

With two starts at nine furlongs under him, Dialed In won't lack for fitness

in the Derby, and he received the perfect set-up with a confidence-building

victory Sunday.

Fountain of Youth winner Soldat and Gotham victor Stay Thirsty were never a factor in the Florida Derby, finishing fifth

and seventh, respectively, and I didn't understand the ride either one received.

Both horses were pushing the action from the rear of the pack, getting dirt

kicked in their face in tight quarters as the headed into the first turn, and

they continued to be hustled into the backstretch instead of settling for one

run. Both were through by the time they reached the final turn, and first-time

blinkers didn't help Stay Thirsty.

We've seen a number of horses turn in a clunker in their final Derby prep

race before rebounding with a much-improved showing, even if it's a

non-threatening second or third. Soldat and Stay Thirsty don't look like

legitimate win contenders, but they're capable of better at Churchill Downs.

Previews

Uncle Mo will make his first start at 1 1/8 miles following an easy romp in a

one-turn mile (virtual) exhibition (March 12 Timely Writer). The $1 million Wood

purse helped attract nine overmatched rivals for the plundering, and perhaps the

most interesting storyline centers around Duca. The D. Wayne

Lukas pupil is exiting a wire-to-wire maiden win at Oaklawn Park, netting an 87

Speed rating in the 1 1/16-mile event, and he's drawn to the outside of Uncle

Mo. Will Duca be able to cross over in front of the favorite early?

The answer is probably not but it won't matter if he does. All eyes will be

on Uncle Mo as he rolls through the stretch in another race against the clock,

searching for signs of vulnerability going forward in the 1 1/4-mile Derby. I

don't expect to see any flaws.

The Santa Anita Derby suffered a major hit with the loss of Premier Pegasus,

who catapulted up the Derby rankings with a 7 3/4-length score in the March 12

San Felipe. But the San Felipe was a strange race, with the front runners

acting like

it was six-furlong sprint (half-mile in :44 2/5) before running out of gas by the

conclusion of the far turn. Premier Pegasus was the only member of the field

finishing and wound up home free by midstretch. Expect a different pace scenario

on Saturday.

All the speed from the San Felipe is gone except for Comma to the Top, and I'll take a stab with the gelding who isn't even under

consideration for the Kentucky Derby. Comma to the Top hung in courageously for fourth in the San Felipe and

should be primed for a top

performance in his third start of the year for Peter Miller. Nine furlongs

remains a possible stumbling block, but Santa Anita tends to play faster on big

race days (like many tracks in the nation) and speed is eligible to hold all day

long.

Comma to the Top reeled off five straight victories at two, including the

CashCall Futurity, and should get to the rail and show the way under Corey

Nakatani. I'll key him top and bottom in the exacta with Jaycito, who appears

poised for a strong effort in his second outing of the year. Trainer Bob Baffert

apparently entered Midnight Interlude  as a rabbit for his

stablemate, but the one-run Jaycito must still avoid leaving himself too much to

do in the stretch. Jaycito gets the blinkers back on, and that should help him

to focus.

In the Illinois Derby, the first three horses from the rail are exiting

wire-to-wire wins and The Fed Eased will likely be winging it from

post 7. There appears to be plenty of pace present.

Tampa Bay Derby upsetter Watch Me Go is the horse to beat at

Hawthorne, but the Kathleen O'Connell trainee will be making his first start

outside of Florida. Give him credit for improving in last two starts at two

turns, but Watch Me Go remains a question mark outside of Tampa Bay and figures

to be overbet off his 43-1 shocker. He can beat me at short odds away from home.

Sour is my top selection. The late-running gelding posted a

sharp 2 1/2-length score when stretching out to a route two starts back,

breaking his maiden in his second career outing, but made his initial attempt

against winners in a small field with no pace last time, finishing second to

subsequent Louisiana Derby seventh-placer Left. The Illinois Derby

is practically a non-winners of one "other than" allowance for the Al Stall

Jr.-conditioned gelding and with a favorable scenario up front, Sour could be along

in time.

Enjoy the racing.