HEAD TO HEAD ANALYSIS
SEPTEMBER 2, 2011
Silent Saga to make some noise
by Ed DeRosa
The bad news is that unless my choice to win this week’s head to head matchup
pays $6.60, I will not finish in the black for the wager on the Del Mar feature
each Saturday of the meeting.
The good news is I plan to ride a two-race winning streak and positive
momentum into next year after tabbing Calimonco to finish ahead of Victory Pete
in the Del Mar H. (G2), which he did by a head.
The interesting thing about that finish was that Calimonco was 12.4-to-1 in
the win pool compared to 8.8-to-1 on Victory Pete, but both were 4-to-5 in the
head to head wager. I said last week that 4-to-5 was the price I needed on
Calimonco, and I got it, so I consider it a “win,” but considering bettors gave
him about a 25 percent less chance to win the race outright I kind of wish he
had been a higher price in the head to head.
I don’t think I’ll have that problem this week, however, as I fully expect
Emerald Gold to be favored over Silent Saga in the head to head wager on the Del
Mar Debutante (G1). Both are just maiden winners, but Emerald Gold has sexier
connections, a better pedigree, and defeated his foe the only other time they
met.
Still, I think enough is here to back Silent Saga at anything better than
even money. When Emerald Gold defeated Silent Saga, it was the winner’s second
career race while Silent Saga was making her debut, but she followed that
third-place finish up with a victory. Both fillies are stretching out to seven
furlongs, which I don’t see as benefiting either of them more than the other.
What I like about Silent Saga in this spot is that it does not appear as if
anyone else in the field can run with Coup de Coeur early. Silent Saga won’t be
on the lead, but she’ll be ahead of Emerald Gold through soft fractions, and I
don’t think Silent Saga will let her head to head competitor get by her late.
Thanks for following along this Del Mar meeting. Keep tabs on the tops in
fall racing and Breeders’ Cup prep season over at Blog.TwinSpires.com!
Ed DeRosa is the Director of Marketing for Bloodstock Research Information
Services (BRIS) and a lifelong Thoroughbred racing enthusiast and astute
handicapper