HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
NOVEMBER 18, 2011
by Dick Powell
The focus of the racing world will be on Vinton, Louisiana, this Saturday
where Delta Downs will host the $1 million Delta Jackpot and $500,000 Delta
Princess, both Grade 3 stakes, as part of a terrific afternoon of racing that
includes six other stakes races.
Not only is $1 million on the line, but a win would sew up a berth in next
year’s Kentucky Derby and even a second should do the job as well. The winner
will have more than enough graded earnings to get a spot in the Derby. The
runner-up earns $200,000, which is enough to ensure that a horse needs only
another graded placing to make it. That was the case with Decisive Moment, who
finished second in the 2010 Jackpot and has never won a graded stakes. His
placing in the Grade 3 Spiral in March guaranteed him a spot in the Derby
line-up.
What the $1 million purse offers trainers is the ability to map out a plan
where they know they are going to be eligible for the Derby and take the best
route to get there. They will have no need to worry about whether or not they
are in the top 20 horses as far as graded earnings go and can avoid races that
they do not want to compete in but have to because of the purse. It’s a nice
luxury and 10 trainers were smart enough to try to take advantage of it.
From the rail out, here is the field for the 1 1/16 mile event:
LONGVIEW DRIVE drew the rail and has more than enough speed to be put in the
race early. He broke his maiden on the dirt at the Pleasanton Fair then came
back to win a minor stakes race going six furlongs at Santa Rosa. He stretched
out to this distance last out and won another stakes race when he sat just off
the pace to win going away after surviving some bumped near the top of the
stretch. Trained by Hall of Famer Jerry Hollendorfer, he will be ridden for the
first time by Joel Rosario. By Pulpit, Longview Drive is out of a dam that has
produced four winners from five foals to race including graded stakes winners
Pyro and War Echo.
SEVEN LIVELY SINS broke his maiden second time out at Keeneland going seven
furlongs in good time then just missed in the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes last out
at Churchill Downs. He’s another with good early speed and Julien Leparoux rides
him back for Al Stall Jr. The Stormy Atlantic colt is out of a dam by the speedy
Carson City who is a half-sister to stakes winner and Grade 3 runner-up Jaramar
Rain and to the very classy Imperial Council, who was second in the Grade 2
Peter Pan and Grade 3 Gotham Stakes.
TIZ MOE broke his maiden first time out going 7 1/2 furlongs at Hoosier Park
then came back here and was second in the Jean Laffitte Futurity going a mile.
He raced wide that day but draws well here with Jamie Theriot riding back for
Bret Calhoun. He’s by Tiznow and is out of a dam that has produced five winners
from five other foals to race; his dam is a full-sister to two graded stakes
horses in Argentina and a half-sister to Fernando Po, who won two stakes races
as a two-year-old.
BASMATI took six starts to break his maiden but ran well against graded
stakes winners along the way. He has been remarkably consistent in all six
starts and two turns have not been a problem for him at all. He has good
tactical speed and should be able to sit off the front-runners in here with
Corey Nakatani who has had a great year with horses that race near the lead. The
Borrego colt is out of a dam that is a half-sister to two stakes winners.
MY ADONIS improved when blinkers were added three starts back and as
expected, he has done well as the races have gotten longer. He broke his maiden
two starts back at Monmouth Park then came down here to win the Jean Laffitte
Futurity. Elvis Trujillo is in to ride for his man Kelly Breen. Sire Pleasantly
Perfect could run all day, winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic and Dubai World
Cup, and the dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Lakota Brave.
DRILL won the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity going seven furlongs and was then
second as the 3-5 favorite in the Grade 1 Norfolk Stakes in his two-turn debut.
He lost all chance in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile when he broke in at the start
and had to be dragged off the horses to his inside. That was his first start
without blinkers and Bob Baffert will put them back on Saturday. The Lawyer Ron
colt is out of a dam who is a half-sister to a graded stakes winner. Martin
Garcia will be in to ride.
LAURIE’S ROCKET broke his maiden at Saratoga after being shuffled back from
post 1 going 5 1/2 furlongs then was an even fourth on a sloppy track in the
Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes. He did nothing in the Grade 1 Champagne but looked good
last out at Churchill in a long sprint, rallying from off the pace with blinkers
added for the first time. The son of Bluegrass Cat is out of a stakes-placed dam
that has produced a stakes winner with her first foal to race and is a
half-sister to three stakes winners.
SABERCAT broke his maiden in his fourth start going two turns on the main
track for the first time then came right back and romped in a stakes race at
Monmouth Park. The Bluegrass Cat colt is out of a dam who has produced seven
winners from seven foals to race, including another stakes winner, and is a
half-sister to two stakes winners.
DOUG’S BUDDY ships in from Canada and is undefeated in four starts. He
settled nicely last out going two turns for the first time and even though his
competition is suspect, the son of Badge of Silver has looked very professional.
He will get Lasix for the first time and has enough speed to overcome the wide
post.
JAKE MO showed good speed when he broke his maiden by almost 10 lengths in
his second career start then came back and won a sprint stakes there. After
running third in a stakes race at Remington Park, he was fifth in the Breeders’
Cup Juvenile Sprint when he broke poorly and had to race extremely wide. The
Giacomo colt is certainly bred to go long and has shown an ability to run on or
off the pace.
I am going to take a stand against Drill in here. My Adonis already has a
race over the track and Kelly Breen is one of the sharpest trainers around. He’s
bred to go long, has improved since blinkers were added and should be able to
get a perfect stalking trip with Trujillo behind the inside speed.