Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

DECEMBER 2, 2011

by Dick Powell

Gulfstream Park opens this Saturday with some significant changes to the

track. A second finish line installed at the sixteenth-pole will now enable them

to schedule 1 1/16-mile races on the main track. This will bridge the gap

between the one-turn mile races and the 1 1/8-mile races on the main track. The

Grade 2 Fountain of Youth will revert to its traditional distance of 1 1/16

miles and should be a more attractive target for trainers looking to get a prep

for the Grade 1, 1 1/8 mile-Florida Derby.

Another significant change will be a coordination of post times between

Gulfstream and Aqueduct. Aqueduct will begin its day at 12:20 p.m. (EST) and

Gulfstream will follow along at 12:35 p.m. The plan is to not just try to keep

post times from overlapping, but give customers time to bet and cash on each

track.

Last year's racing on the main track was dominated by speed. And, as well as

speed did on the main track, it did terrible on the turf where closers

dominated. Let's look at the numbers courtesy of the Track Bias Stats that can

be found in BRIS Ultimate Past Performances.

On the main track going 5 1/2 furlongs, there were 28 races run last year and

the speed bias was 75 percent -- 36 percent of the races were won going gate to

wire and the winner was an average 1 1/2 lengths behind at the first call. There

were 133 races run at six furlongs and the speed bias was 81 percent -- 37

percent of the races were won going gate to wire and the winner was an average

1.4 lengths behind at the first call.

Going seven furlongs, there were 35 races run last year at the distance with

a speed bias of 69 percent -- 34 percent of the races were won going gate to

wire and the winner was an average 2.1 lengths behind at the first call. At the

one-turn mile distance, there were 59 races run last year and the speed bias was

70 percent -- 21 percent of the races were won going gate to wire and the winner

was an average 2.2 lengths behind at the first call.

The turf has been enigmatic for me the past few years. I thought I had it

figured out a few years ago when I did research on the rail placement and how it

affected running styles and post positions. But last year, that all seemed to go

out the window as past truisms turned out to be false.

That said, and without drilling down too far, closers dominate the turf

racing at Gulfstream Park. Other than five-furlong sprints, speed does terrible

in the two-turn turf races.

On the turf going five furlongs, there were 62 races run last year with a

speed bias of 71 percent -- 31 percent of the races were won going gate to wire

and the winner was an average 1.8 lengths behind at the first call.

Once the turf races stretch out to two turns, the bias against speed is

dramatic. On the turf going 7 1/2 furlongs, the speed bias was only 25 percent

and none of the 16 races run at that distance were won going gate to wire. The

winner was an average 3.7 lengths behind at the first call. Going a mile on the

turf, there were 93 races run last year and the speed bias was 36 percent. Only

15 percent of these races were won going gate to wire and the winner was an

average 4.2 lengths behind.

The most common distance run on the turf at Gulfstream Park is 1 1/16 miles

as 115 of these races were run last year. The speed bias was only 34 percent and

17 percent of these races were won going gate to wire. The winner was an average

4.1 lengths behind at the first call. At 1 1/8 miles, there were 27 races run

and the speed bias was 33 percent. Only 15 percent of these races were won gate

to wire and the winner was an average 3.9 lengths behind.

Even if it's bright and sunny for a week in Hallandale, Florida, I will be

handicapping Gulfstream like it just rained -- speed on the main track and

closers on the turf.

***

Aqueduct kicked off its four-month inner dirt track meet on Wednesday and to

everyone's surprise, inside speed did terrible. What is great about handicapping

the inner dirt track is the severe effect that weather has on it. Once

temperatures dip below freezing, the water trucks are hardly used. What often

happens is a long stretch of sunny weather will cause the track to dry out and

slow down noticeably. When it gets some precipitation, it will become faster and

speed-favoring.

Unlike past years when NYRA had trouble filling races, this year's inner dirt

track meet will be chock full of starters; $65,000 maiden races will do that.

The initial revenue from the VLT operation on track will begin to show up in the

purse account beginning at the start of 2012. Many new horsemen will be on the

grounds and many trainers that used to ship south will now be leaving not only

more horses behind, but better horses.

Simply put, the Aqueduct inner dirt track will be sensational this year with

not just quality but quantity. Field sizes should be much higher than last

winter and more big-name jockeys will be staying in town. It might be another

long, cold winter at Aqueduct but the racing figures to be hot with lots of

juicy wagering opportunities.