HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
DECEMBER 2, 2011
by Dick Powell
Gulfstream Park opens this Saturday with some significant changes to the
track. A second finish line installed at the sixteenth-pole will now enable them
to schedule 1 1/16-mile races on the main track. This will bridge the gap
between the one-turn mile races and the 1 1/8-mile races on the main track. The
Grade 2 Fountain of Youth will revert to its traditional distance of 1 1/16
miles and should be a more attractive target for trainers looking to get a prep
for the Grade 1, 1 1/8 mile-Florida Derby.
Another significant change will be a coordination of post times between
Gulfstream and Aqueduct. Aqueduct will begin its day at 12:20 p.m. (EST) and
Gulfstream will follow along at 12:35 p.m. The plan is to not just try to keep
post times from overlapping, but give customers time to bet and cash on each
track.
Last year’s racing on the main track was dominated by speed. And, as well as
speed did on the main track, it did terrible on the turf where closers
dominated. Let’s look at the numbers courtesy of the Track Bias Stats that can
be found in BRIS Ultimate Past Performances.
On the main track going 5 1/2 furlongs, there were 28 races run last year and
the speed bias was 75 percent — 36 percent of the races were won going gate to
wire and the winner was an average 1 1/2 lengths behind at the first call. There
were 133 races run at six furlongs and the speed bias was 81 percent — 37
percent of the races were won going gate to wire and the winner was an average
1.4 lengths behind at the first call.
Going seven furlongs, there were 35 races run last year at the distance with
a speed bias of 69 percent — 34 percent of the races were won going gate to
wire and the winner was an average 2.1 lengths behind at the first call. At the
one-turn mile distance, there were 59 races run last year and the speed bias was
70 percent — 21 percent of the races were won going gate to wire and the winner
was an average 2.2 lengths behind at the first call.
The turf has been enigmatic for me the past few years. I thought I had it
figured out a few years ago when I did research on the rail placement and how it
affected running styles and post positions. But last year, that all seemed to go
out the window as past truisms turned out to be false.
That said, and without drilling down too far, closers dominate the turf
racing at Gulfstream Park. Other than five-furlong sprints, speed does terrible
in the two-turn turf races.
On the turf going five furlongs, there were 62 races run last year with a
speed bias of 71 percent — 31 percent of the races were won going gate to wire
and the winner was an average 1.8 lengths behind at the first call.
Once the turf races stretch out to two turns, the bias against speed is
dramatic. On the turf going 7 1/2 furlongs, the speed bias was only 25 percent
and none of the 16 races run at that distance were won going gate to wire. The
winner was an average 3.7 lengths behind at the first call. Going a mile on the
turf, there were 93 races run last year and the speed bias was 36 percent. Only
15 percent of these races were won going gate to wire and the winner was an
average 4.2 lengths behind.
The most common distance run on the turf at Gulfstream Park is 1 1/16 miles
as 115 of these races were run last year. The speed bias was only 34 percent and
17 percent of these races were won going gate to wire. The winner was an average
4.1 lengths behind at the first call. At 1 1/8 miles, there were 27 races run
and the speed bias was 33 percent. Only 15 percent of these races were won gate
to wire and the winner was an average 3.9 lengths behind.
Even if it’s bright and sunny for a week in Hallandale, Florida, I will be
handicapping Gulfstream like it just rained — speed on the main track and
closers on the turf.
***
Aqueduct kicked off its four-month inner dirt track meet on Wednesday and to
everyone’s surprise, inside speed did terrible. What is great about handicapping
the inner dirt track is the severe effect that weather has on it. Once
temperatures dip below freezing, the water trucks are hardly used. What often
happens is a long stretch of sunny weather will cause the track to dry out and
slow down noticeably. When it gets some precipitation, it will become faster and
speed-favoring.
Unlike past years when NYRA had trouble filling races, this year’s inner dirt
track meet will be chock full of starters; $65,000 maiden races will do that.
The initial revenue from the VLT operation on track will begin to show up in the
purse account beginning at the start of 2012. Many new horsemen will be on the
grounds and many trainers that used to ship south will now be leaving not only
more horses behind, but better horses.
Simply put, the Aqueduct inner dirt track will be sensational this year with
not just quality but quantity. Field sizes should be much higher than last
winter and more big-name jockeys will be staying in town. It might be another
long, cold winter at Aqueduct but the racing figures to be hot with lots of
juicy wagering opportunities.