HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
DECEMBER 30, 2011
by Dick Powell
The Eclipse Awards process has always been flawed with far too many voters
making up their mind before the holidays and ignoring some significant events at
the end of the year. The major races at the end of the year in Southern
California have been victimized the most by the voters’ unwillingness to wait
for the entire calendar year to come to a finish.
Blind Luck should have been juvenile filly champion in 2009, but her win in
December’s Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet was not giving the weight it deserved since
too many voters had already made up their minds. This year, many voters who are
nice enough to publish who they will be voting for did not take into account
what would happen in the Male Sprint and 3YO Male category if The Factor won the
Grade 1 Malibu Stakes at Santa Anita.
The Bob Baffert trainee began the year with a sharp win in the Grade 2 San
Vicente going seven furlongs. He then went to Oaklawn Park to win the Grade 2
Rebel Stakes going 1 1/16 miles but came up empty in the Arkansas Derby. At this
point, Baffert decided to keep him going short and after a long rest, he came
back to win the Grade 1 Pat O’Brien Stakes against older horses at Del Mar where
he toppled the leader of the sprint division, Smiling Tiger.
Baffert used the Grade 1 Ancient Title as his prep for the Breeders’ Cup
Sprint but things went awry when The Factor was cooked in a speed duel from post
1 and had little left at the finish. Instead of going on to the Sprint, Baffert
put him in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile where he drew post 1 again. Considering
how poorly most of the horses ran while down on the inside that day, The Factor
had little chance and faded badly after contesting the pace for six furlongs.
After a brief rest, The Factor began to show up on the work tab at Hollywood
Park and it looked like he was back on his game. Andy Harrington’s National Turf
Report raved about his drills and there he was in the Malibu but this time,
breaking from the far outside.
On paper it looked like a good field and if The Factor was not on his game,
there were 10 others ready to win their first Grade 1 stakes. Martin Garcia got
him away well from the gate for the run down the backside and was able to get
him to relax well three deep off the rail. After a first quarter in a leisurely
:22.61, Garcia threw a :22 flat second quarter at the field and The Factor
forged to a short lead around the turn without a lot of effort. At the top of
the stretch, Garcia let it out a notch and The Factor hit the six-furlong mark
in 1:07.92. A final furlong of :11.97 made it impossible for any of his rivals
to make up any meaningful ground and The Factor hit the wire 3 1/2 lengths in
front while stopping the teletimer in 1:19.89.
For those keeping score at home, that’s two Grade 1 wins in sprints, one
against older horses for The Factor. He has a Grade 2 win in a sprint and a
Grade 2 win in a middle-distance race. The likely winner of the Eclipse Award,
Amazombie, has two Grade 1 sprint wins in the Ancient Title and the Breeders’
Cup Sprint. Another leading contender, Caleb’s Posse, has two Grade 1 wins in
sprints (King’s Bishop and Dirt Mile), one against older horses. The Factor beat
Caleb’s Posse in the Rebel and Caleb’s Posse beat The Factor in the Dirt mile.
The point is, if you waited for the Malibu to be run and took The Factor’s
win into account, there really isn’t much difference between him, Caleb’s Posse
and Amazombie. But I’ll be shocked if The Factor wins the award.
Another horse that will be victimized by this syndrome is Turbulent Descent,
who will be running in the Grade 1 La Brea Stakes on New Year’s Eve this
Saturday. She began her 2011 campaign with a close second in the Grade 1 Las
Virgenes going a two-turn mile then came back to win the Grade 1 Santa Anita
Oaks at 1 1/16 miles.
Turbulent Descent then went to Keeneland where she dominated the Grade 2
Beaumont Stakes by five lengths in a long sprint, but she was second on a muddy
track at Belmont in the Grade 1 Acorn Stakes going a one-turn mile next out. She
came back at Saratoga and won the Grade 1 Test Stakes in a laugher by almost
five lengths. Mike Puype trained her up the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint,
but Turbulent Descent had a nightmare trip and faded to fifth on a wet track.
A win in the La Brea would give her two Grade 1 sprint wins this year. The
only filly sprinter that has done that this year is Sassy Image, who won the
Humana Distaff going seven furlongs and the Princess Rooney at six furlongs. She
chipped an ankle leading up to the Breeders’ Cup and missed the race.
Coupled with her win in the Santa Anita Oaks, a win on Saturday in the La
Brea would give Turbulent Descent three Grade 1 wins for the year which not even
three-year-old filly divisional leader Royal Delta has done. What’s also frustrating about the
neglect of these races on this year’s Eclipse Awards voting is that they are not
even considered for next year. They are ignored as if they never happened. In
today’s world of instant communication, I can’t understand why ballots and past
performance information are not sent out electronically on January 1st.