HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
MARCH 30, 2012
by Dick Powell
The Group 1 Dubai World Cup will be run at 1:40 p.m. Eastern time this
Saturday, and it is one of the most intriguing renewals of the world’s richest
horse race we have ever seen. With a $10 million purse, it has attracted top
horses from all over the world that will compete on the Tapeta main track at
approximately 1 1/4 miles.
The post position draw that was held on Wednesday afternoon in the Imax
Theater that is part of the gigantic Meydan complex produced some drama when top
American contender Game on Dude drew post 14. All the connections of all the
horses feigned content with their post positions but I actually think that the
extreme outside post will not hurt him.
Meydan’s main track is approximately 1 1/8 miles in circumference, so there
is a decent run into the clubhouse turn. Game on Dude looks to be the fastest of
the fast horses in here and should be able to make the front without too much
effort. Chantal Sutherland did indicate that he occasionally breaks slow but at
least on the outside, he can recover if he gets away slowly. He schooled at the
gate Thursday morning here and Chantal fits him perfectly.
There is much discussion about the Tapeta main track and how well speed does
over it. As I have written before, it should be more speed favoring as the night
goes on but that might be a minority opinion. I just hope that Chantal ignores
all the theories about the track and lets Game on Dude run with his usual
running style. What I don’t want to see is her in front through a first half in
52 seconds. I would much rather see her set a legitimate pace and take the kick
out of the stretch runners. A slow pace brings them into the race and there is
no reason that he can’t control things on the front end.
Being on the outside on the main track is not a big deal since the turns have
a gentle banking and horses are able to maintain their position without using
too much energy fighting the turn. I would love to see Game on Dude on the lead
but if one of the other speed horses, Smart Falcon or Transcend decide to take
up the running, Chantal can sit first over and stalk the speed. Either way, he
has the pedigree and running style to win.
Underneath Game on Dude I like So You Think and Royal Delta. Both horses
excel at 10 furlongs, and it looks like Bill Mott has Royal Delta in great
condition as she excels during the morning in the looks department.
In the other races, I like Mahbooba in the Group 1, $5 million Dubai Sheema
Classic. She’s had two good runs on the turf course here which can be a little
quirky for horses running on it for the first time. Mike de Kock is a master at
having his horses ready on the big night, so be aware that he hasn’t shown all
his cards and always saves some for the big jackpots.
In the Group 1, $5 million Dubai Duty Free going about 1 1/8 miles on the
turf, I’m looking for another upset with Await the Dawn. He was an emerging star
in the powerful Aidan O’Brien stable last year when he won three straight Group
stakes races before getting very sick. Throw out his last start when he came
back to the races after his trip to the sidelines and he makes a lot of sense.
He won his career debut then won his seasonal debut off a longer layoff than
this so he’s shown he can run well fresh. High hopes for him show up in the fact
that he’s been nominated for the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup coming up in May.
The night will begin with an Arabian race that there is no North American
betting, then comes the Group 2 Godolphin Mile on the main track. I liked
African Story during the Carnival this season and he won a Group three going a
mile in fast time last out here. Frankie Dettori will try to get the boys in
blue from Godolphin off to a fast start.
The Group 3 Dubai Gold Cup will be contested at two miles on the turf course
and looks to be a two-horse race — both from Godolphin — between Fox Hunt and
Opinion Poll. I give the edge to Fox Hunt, who ran great in the Group 1
Melbourne Cup in November, then returned here to win two marathon races. Opinion
Poll was making his first start of the year last out when Fox Hunt beat him, but
I just think that Fox Hunt is the better horse. Frankie Dettori, who looks like
he had his pick of both horses, chooses Opinion Poll which is fine by me as we
will get better odds on Fox Hunt.
The Group 2 U.A.E. Derby is next up for three-year-olds going about 1 3/16
miles. Last year, O’Brien almost won this race with Master of Hounds, who was
making his Tapeta debut, and he will try to get the job done with Wrote, who
romped in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last year at Churchill Downs. Coolmore
is so high on him that if he runs well on Saturday, we could see him next in the
Kentucky Derby.
The 5TH race is virtually impossible to figure out, but the talking horse
here is Ortensia, and that’s good enough for me in a wide-open affair. I like
the fact that she has a win at Flemington which is a straightaway sprint course
like Meydan and won a Group 1 last out going six furlongs.
The Group 1, $2 million Golden Shaheen will test my theory about how the
Tapeta main track gets tighter as it cools off after sundown. With a post time
of 7:35 p.m. local time, the sun will be down, but might not be speed-favoring
yet. In a field that is loaded with speed, I’m going for Hitchens to pull off
the upset over the brilliant American sprinter The Factor, who will be under
severe pressure on the lead. Hitchens has a win in a Group 3 here going this
distance and might get the perfect set-up at long odds.