HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
JUNE 1, 2012
by Dick Powell
The Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap has been run 119 times, and it would be
hard to find one as exciting and close as last Monday’s renewal was. It looked
to be one of the best runnings ever and lo and behold, the race lived up to its
hype.
Only six horses entered but five were millionaires and Saginaw was coming off
a five-race winning streak. The betting public settled on To Honor and Serve as
the 8-5 favorite with Caleb’s Posse right behind at 2-1. Third choice was
Shackleford at 7-2 with Jackson Bend the only other horse at single-digit odds.
At the start, Shackleford’s new rider, Johnny Velazquez, broke the big
chestnut running and he quickly made the lead out of the long Belmont
backstretch chute. Surprisingly, Jackson Bend broke running and instead of
saving himself for his customary late charge, he went up and pressed Shackleford
on his outside.
The victim of all this was To Honor and Serve who wound up stuck down on the
inside from post 1. Usually, Jose Lezcano would have eased him back a bit and
swing to the outside to get clear running outside of Shackleford, but with
Jackson Bend pressing a :44.73 first half-mile, he was stuck down on the rail.
It wasn’t so much that To Honor and Serve was being squeezed for room, but
the long-striding colt never could run comfortably. Shackleford kept motoring
along out in the two path and he threw in a :23.79 third quarter around the turn
to maintain his advantage. Jackson Bend began to pay for his early efforts and
To Honor and Serve was going to finally get off the rail.
As big as Shackleford is, he is also amazingly long and his stride just keeps
him going. Just like in last year’s Preakness Stakes, when it looked like
Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom was going to go right by him, Shackleford
showed he is a tough customer to run down.
Out of camera range for most of the race, Caleb’s Posse finally appeared at
the top of the stretch and was flying as he swung to the outside for clear
sailing. Eating up ground with every stride, he quickly passed horses and set
sights on Shackleford.
Passing the eighth-pole, it looked like Caleb’s Posse was going to get up in
time but Shackleford, running with his head down like A.P. Indy, just kept going
on. It looked like Shackleford would get caught in the final stride, but just
when Caleb’s Posse drew next to him, the length of his stride kept him in front
and he held on by a thrilling nose. It was a race that neither horse deserved to
lose and a dead heat would have been very fitting.
But Shackleford got the job done and he joins an elite list of horses that
had success in any of the three triple crown races that came back to win it. For
Caleb’s Posse, it was the third straight heartbreaking loss of the year, and
this is the one that Donnie Von Hemel really wanted after losing the Grade 1
Carter Handicap by a nose also. He was giving two pounds in the Met and he
continues to be one of the most exciting horses in training no matter what the
distance.
For To Honor and Serve, it was a tough loss at a distance that he was
pointing toward since last year. Winner of the Grade 1 Cigar Mile at the end of
last year, he came out this year with an easy win in the Grade 3 Westchester
going a mile again. He did not get the best trip but he is my early pick to win
the Grade 1 Whitney going two turns as he should be able to stretch his legs and
run to his ability.
To Honor and Serve’s inside trip in a long sprint is illustrative of what we
have to deal with on a daily basis. Post 1 is great for horses that habitually
go to the front or go to the back of the pack. For the horses that like to run
up near the lead or in midpack, it can be a challenge for the rider who has to
make some quick decisions.
As tough, and obvious, as To Honor and Serve’s trip from the rail was, it
could have been different but just as harmful. What we see regularly on a daily
basis is a horse that gets urged from the gate, clears the field and then tires
late. The energy used to maintain his inside position can be as big a problem as
racing in tight quarters.
It might not be as visible, but racing on the lead from post 1 puts the horse
under severe pressure. If Lezcano would have gunned To Honor and Serve from the
rail, you would have seen him duel through demanding fractions which would have
softened him up for the stretch drive.
The other subtle trip note was how Jackson Bend, coming off a win in the
Carter Handicap, broke so well that he pressed a fast pace. Belmont’s main track
on Monday was very fast and riders had adjusted to it by the end of the day.
Knowing that Shackleford would be hard to catch if loose on the lead, Corey
Nakatani did not take back and let him go, but stayed with him aboard Jackson
Bend. He did not have anything in his way as far as traffic was concerned but it
was still a bad trip for Jackson Bend who wound up being victimized by a fast
start.
In Shackleford’s prior start on Derby Day in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs
Stakes, Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Amazombie wound up pressing a very demanding
pace over a track that was lightning fast since Mike Smith knew that his
customary late kick was not going to work that day. His only chance was to lap
on Shackleford and he gamely was beaten a length. If he took back, Shackleford
would have been long gone.
Contested did not mind being in post 1 in the Grade 1 Acorn Stakes going a
mile since she broke so fast, she had a three-length lead after a quarter-mile
was run. It didn’t matter what post position this speedball broke from, as she
dominated every step of the way to win by five lengths.
Bet the Belmont Stakes at TwinSpires.com