HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
JUNE 29, 2012
by Dick Powell
Murphy’s Law says, “If anything can go wrong, it will.” Murphy, meet Black
Caviar, who had to overcome a lot of things that went wrong to preserve her
record winning streak in last Saturday’s Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal
Ascot.
The best turf sprinters in the world race in Australia but even after 21
straight wins, trainer Peter Moody succumbed to the temptation of proving her
legitimacy by shipping her 22 hours to England. She apparently shipped well in
her space-age bodysuit and her workout the Tuesday before wowed the British turf
writers that spend many a morning watching and evaluating training.
With Frankel winning the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes by 11 lengths, the bar was
set pretty high and nobody, not even Black Caviar, was going to win a
six-furlong, Group 1 sprint by 11 lengths. Still, a dominant performance seemed
likely and expectations were still high.
No sooner had The Queen arrived in her carriage did the skies open up with a
rainstorm. Considering the ground was mostly between “good” to “soft” during the
week, it was now rain soaked. Another storm hit around race two adding more
water to the track.
When the horses for the Diamond Jubilee Stakes came to the parade ring, Black
Caviar was throwing her head up and down while being walked. She wasn’t washed
out by any means but just looked anxious, which is not her way. When the field
made their way out on the track and down to the post, she was settled down some
but her coat was just average looking.
The Diamond Jubilee was going to be run at six furlongs down the straightaway
of Ascot. Black Caviar drew post 15 which meant that she would be breaking at
the end of the starting gate closest to the grandstand, or the “stands side.”
Normally, for a horse as fast as her, that might have been an advantage and for
a good part of the race it was.
Luke Nolen broke her alertly and sat third in the early going. He was riding
her without any urging and she looked like the old Black Caviar. Nearing the
two-furlong pole, Nolen asked her for more and she quickly assumed command of
the race. It wasn’t going to be a Frankel-like win but it sure looked like the
race was over, even on a course that she clearly did not like.
As she neared the wire, Nolen inexplicably stopped riding her. He didn’t
stand up in the irons, but he stopped urging her and she quickly slowed down.
Suddenly, her two pursuers, Moonlight Cloud and Restiadargent were right on top
of her with only a few strides to go.
Nolen finally came out of his stupor and rode her hands and heels to the
wire, winning by only a nose. It was an added thrill that we didn’t really need
and one of, if not, the biggest jockey screw-up in racing history.
Besides Murphy’s Law, which seemed to be in place all day last Saturday for
Black Caviar, there is Colonel John Stapp’s Ironical Paradox which says, “The
universal aptitude for ineptitude makes any human accomplishment an incredible
miracle.”
Miraculously, Nolen got Black Caviar’s head down at the wire despite an
attempt the snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and avoided a 42-day
suspension that the stewards at Ascot would have given him had he not won the
race. Had the race been in Australia, the suspension would have been 60 days.
Based on Peter Moody’s reaction to what happened at the finish, I think his
suspension would have been to walk home to Australia.
To be fair to Nolen, what seemed to have confused him was the wide draw,
which resulted in him racing on the stands side of the straightaway. On the
other side of the track, the winning pole is quite visible. From the stands
side, it is not.
To further complicate things, the finish line is at the end of the
straightaway and when the horses hit it, they have to start turning right. From
the stands side of the course, all you can see is the outer rail curving to the
right so Nolen must have thought he already passed the finish as the outer rail
was coming up on him.
After the race, when things finally calmed down, Moody indicated that Black
Caviar came out of the race with some minor injuries. Nothing that an MRI or
X-ray would indicate but soft tissue injuries. He talked about getting her back
to Australia, once her quarantine is finished, and resuming training later in
the year. Don’t bet on it.
The Southern Hemisphere breeding season begins at the end of August and it
really makes no sense to continue to race her. More wins Down Under will just be
numbers but won’t add anything to her legacy. She’s had physical issues before
because of her gigantic size and speed. Frankie Dettori said you could serve a
dinner for 12 on her back.
She is also in the unusual position of being able to breed to one of the
European superstar sires on southern hemisphere time. Her quarantine was to be
four weeks, which takes her into late July. She could stay in England and breed
her to superstars like Galileo or Sea the Stars before going back to Australia
to foal.
Black Caviar has won all 22 of her starts and there’s nothing left to prove.
Once the dust settles, I say she’ll be retired as the reward does not come
anywhere near the risk they will be taking if they continue to run her. All good
things come to an end and by the narrowest of margins, Black Caviar’s career
ends on a high note.
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