Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

JUNE 22, 2012

by Dick Powell

Horse racing has been held at Ascot since August 11, 1711. The first four-day

meet began in 1768 and the Gold Cup was instituted in 1807 as its signature

race.

The Royal meet is now five days long and consists of six races each day. And

like Nascar, which kicks off its season with its marquee event, the Daytona 500,

Royal Ascot kicks off with the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes going a mile as its first

race.

In the past, we have seen Goldikova win it in 2010 and get beat in

2011. This year, Frankel put his unbeaten streak on the line but there

was not much risk. The highest-rated horse in the world was sent off at odds of

1-9 but even that doesn't begin to describe how strong a favorite Frankel was.

The Racing Post had a great headline that summed it all up before the race that

added him to the world's certainties: "Death, Taxes, Frankel."

In the Queen Anne, Tom Queally kept Frankel in behind his pacemaker, Bullet

Train, with Excelebration to his right and

Helmet to his left. The quartet raced like a flying wedge

down the straight course and all the riders seemed to be satisfied with their

position.

Nearing two furlongs out, Bullet Train drifted slightly to his left and that

gave Frankel the room he needed. Joseph O'Brien aboard Excelebration sensed what

was happening and began to ask his mount for more. Helmet was in an all-out

drive but Queally was still biding his time.

Frankel cruised past Bullet Train and, with only hands and heels urging, began

to draw off from his rivals, whose riders were riding them furiously. They

quickly lost their action and Frankel was just getting started. He charged up

the incline at Ascot and might have finished his race better than anyone ever

has in 300 years.

The final margin for Frankel was 11 lengths but it was the visual

impression of his run to the wire that will stay with us for ages. Unlike some

his races last year when he raced keenly, he was the consummate professional

this time, responding to his rider's cues immediately while using his high

cruising speed to best advantage.

After the race, Timeform gave him a provisional weighting of 147 which is the

highest they have ever given since founded 64 years ago. Keep in mind that it

was only in the second half of their existence that they rated American horses

so what our immortals from the 1970s would have earned is pure conjecture.

Frankel is now 11-for-11 and trainer Sir Henry Cecil indicated after

the race that he appears to be ready to stretch out to 10 furlongs. Let's hope

he does since there are already some criticisms about who he is beating and

might have come along at a time without many top milers.

Considering that he is

by the world's leading sire, Galileo, and how well he settles

in the early part of his race, 10 furlongs would certainly be within his scope.

The question is who will run against him. He's nominated to the Group 1 Eclipse Stakes

at Sandown next month, the Group 1 Juddmonte International in August and the

Group 1 Champions Stakes in October -- all at 10 furlongs.

If he decides to go to the Eclipse Stakes, he might finally get some quality

competition. Australian superstar So You Think ran in

Wednesday's Group 1 Prince of Wales's Stakes going 10 furlongs. Last year, in his

second start in Europe after dominating Australia, he was the hot favorite but

was nipped at the wire by Rewilding and his reputation began to

suffer.

Despite running down Workforce in the Eclipse and holding off

Snow Fairy in the Group 1 Irish Champions Stakes, he had other losses during the

year as trainer Aidan O'Brien still could not figure the horse out. As good as

he was last year -- and with all the criticism, he was still very good -- So You

Think never resembled the horse we saw in Australia where he ran horses off

their feet.

This year, after a failed attempt at the Group 1 Dubai World Cup on the Tapeta

at Meydan, O'Brien got some much needed advice from his precocious son, Joseph,

who often works So You Think in the morning gallops at Ballydoyle. Whatever it

was, it seems to have worked as he was brilliant in the Prince of Wales's.

Sitting in third place and relaxing beautifully for Joseph, So You Think just

bided his time behind the strong pace being set. With three furlongs to go, he

tipped to the outside for clear running but Joseph was still sitting chilly,

waiting as long as possible.

Ryan Moore burst between horses aboard the Queen's Carlton House and took a brief lead. Joseph responded quickly and engaged him. The two raced

as a team for about a hundred yards and then So You Think asserted his dominance

and drew off in an instant. His final margin was 2 1/4 lengths but it didn't

matter how far he won by; So You Think was not going to be denied.

After the race, Aidan O'Brien revealed the problems he has had figuring out

So You Think and how to train him. Regarded as the most talented horse he has

ever had -- and, he has had Galileo, High Chaparral, Giant's Causeway and Rock

of Gibraltar among

others -- it frustrated him that he could not produce the horse that Bart

Cummings did in Australia.

"We have had him a year and a half and it has taken me a year and a half to

learn how to train him," O'Brien said following the race. "We're just pleased to now have him in the place where

everyone in Australia said that he was.

"He's one of those special horses and I'd

like to say sorry to all the Australian people that I've made such a mess of it

for so long. I was probably working him too often, too long and too hard. I was

killing him by making him grind, but even so he was still very competitive.

"We

knew that we only had a few runs left and we knew that he had run in all the top

races, but there was just that little thing missing. We knew that we had only

today and maybe (the Eclipse Stakes at) Sandown (next month) to get it back."

One factor that turned Aidan O'Brien around was his son Joseph's advice to

train him to quicken rather than long, sustained runs. So You Think already has

tons of pace and the missing ingredient was his ability to accelerate like he

used. Based on the evidence seen in the Prince of Wales's, the big horse is back.

O'Brien wrapped up his media comments with something that bears notice. The

plan is to retire him after the Eclipse Stakes in July and then head back to

Australia to begin his stud career. Knowing that the clock is about to run out,

O'Brien spoke about a possible race against Frankel.

"So You Think's a horse

with loads of pace so I'd love to meet him," he said.

I know that sounds

kind of understated but for the normally taciturn O'Brien, that's as close to a throwdown as you will ever get from him.

So here we have these two great horses and the possibility of them meeting.

For So You Think, it will be his last race and final opportunity to show, along

with his Prince of Wales's victory, that all the hype about him was warranted.

For Frankel, it will be a welcome opportunity to quiet the criticism that he

is only a miler and has met inferior opposition. The date is July 7. Let's

hope Frankel shows up.