HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
AUGUST 31, 2012
by Dick Powell
Sometimes handicapping breaks down to dominant factors, which we
underestimate, while paying way too much attention to the insignificant ones.
Case in point: Dullahan.
He’s run on all three surfaces, but the one thing he really wants is
distance. The Dale Romans trainee was graded stakes-placed twice on the turf
last year and this year. On the synthetic, he won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity
at Keeneland last year and the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes this spring. And he was
a good third on the dirt in the Kentucky Derby this year.
The common thread is that the longer the race, the better Dullahan does
regardless of the surface. His three turf races were between 8 1/2 and nine
furlongs, which is way too short for him. His Blue Grass win was going nine
furlongs and he was just getting unraveled in deep stretch that day, making up a
big margin to catch Hansen.
Dullahan rallied hard for third in the Derby going 1 1/4 miles on a dirt
track that tends to favor turf horses more than most dirt tracks. Everything
went wrong in the Belmont going 1 1/2 miles when he might have worked too fast
the week of the race and caught a deep, sandy surface on race day.
But, his start in the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational on July 29 was completely
ill advised; going nine furlongs on a speed-favoring track was not going to work
out. At that point, Romans had two choices if he wanted to go 1 1/4 miles next
out: the Travers Stakes at Saratoga against fellow three-year-olds or ship to
Del Mar for the Pacific Classic on the synthetic and take on older rivals.
Considering Dullahan’s record on synthetics, Romans wisely chose Del Mar.
With his one-dimensional closing style, Dullahan would have been up against it
at Saratoga, which often favors speed going two turns. Instead, he got to race
at his optimum distance on a track that had a speed bias of only 39 percent,
with only 12 percent of the route races being won wire to wire.
If you told me before the race that the Pacific Classic would be run in
1:59.54, a track record by more than a full second, I would tell you that
Dullahan had no shot. But have a shot he did when he ran his final quarter mile
in about :23 2/5 to get up in time and nail Game on Dude in the shadow of the
wire, needing every inch of the 10 furlongs to do it.
Romans now has a quandary on his hands. The Breeders’ Cup Classic is 10
furlongs, but run on dirt at Santa Anita that tends to be speed-favoring. The
two major turf races that day are the Mile and the Turf at 1 1/2 miles, and
neither race looks appealing.
The smart move would be to point for the Group 1, $10 million Dubai World Cup
at 10 furlongs on the Tapeta surface at Meydan at the end of March and only
worry about how to get to that goal. The Breeders’ Cup is great, but $6 million
to the winner of the World Cup would be even better and with a
less-than-desirable pedigree as a son of Even the Score, it might make sense to
take a long-term approach with Dullahan and plot out a schedule that is focused
on the last Saturday in March every year.
The 143rd running of the Travers Stakes was incredibly exciting and memorable
as the “Midsummer Derby” had it’s first dead-heat since 1874 when favored Alpha
and Golden Ticket hit the wire together for the improbable result.
I’m proud to say that I had Ken McPeek’s Sarava when he won the Belmont
Stakes at 70-1, but Golden Ticket made no sense to me, even after the race, and
if you had him at 33-1 you had about a third of what the odds should have been.
Alpha went gate to wire on a wet track while setting slow fractions to win
the Grade 2 Jim Dandy, but he was more than a one-dimensional speedball that
needs things his own way on the front end. In fact, that was the first race that
he ever went gate to wire but handicappers were willing to typecast the favorite
as a need-to-lead type who would not get things his own way in the Travers.
When the gate was sprung, Speightscity gunned to the front and was closely
followed by Stealcase with Golden Ticket on the inside. Alpha was also up close
stalking on the outside, alternating between third and fourth with Magic Ticket
on the run down the backside.
The pace of the Travers was honest and legit with the half in 48.06 and six
furlongs in 1:12.62. At the top of the stretch, Ramon Dominguez sent Alpha to
the outside while David Cohen sent Golden Ticket through on the inside when the
two leaders drifted out. For most of the stretch, it looked like Golden Ticket
was going to pull off the shocker, but Alpha kept coming relentlessly and nailed
him on the wire.
Usually, dead heat finishes take a while to announce but this one was very
quick. Alpha had his head down and denied Golden Ticket a Travers victory all to
himself, and a second trophy and canoe had to be arranged for the two gallant
winners. There were no losers in this dead heat.
Golden Ticket had not won since breaking his maiden back in February and had
not raced since losing an optional claimer by a neck on Derby Day when he tried
to rally against a severe speed bias. He came into the Travers with three bullet
workouts over the Oklahoma training track and while that usually gets them fit,
there were legitimate doubts about a son of Speightstown getting 10 furlongs.
One thing Golden Ticket had in common with Sarava is that they both have the
same broodmare sire, Deputy Minister, whose daughters seem to pass along tons of
stamina.
One thing Alpha had in common with last year’s winner, Stay Thirsty, is that
they are both sons of Travers winner Bernardini. Both are relatively small colts
so when you hear about how big a horse is, it doesn’t really mean they can get a
distance of ground.