POST PARADE
AUGUST 29, 2012
The State of the Races
by Vance Hanson
For political junkies, the next couple of months represent their quadrennial
opportunity to experience a state of frenzy and euphoria. Those with an
addiction to analyzing turnover in legislative bodies have it even better,
getting their high on a biennial basis.
Close observers of the Thoroughbred sport arguably are luckiest by getting to
eat their cake annually. These next few weeks leading up to the Breeders’ Cup,
which often decides a large share of Eclipse Award championships, typically sees
a lot of movement in the electoral fortunes of horses in various divisions. A
key victory, a bad loss or an unfortunate injury are just some of the ways that
can sway voters in one direction or another.
What follows is one elector’s view of the way the major divisional races are
shaping up at the moment. This is not a consensus view and only indicates the
way I’m thinking at the moment. In no way does this analysis pretend to be fair
and balanced or leaning forward. If you’re looking for the former or latter, you
know where to find it on your television dial.
Three-year-old male: It was going to take a lot to displace I’ll
Have Another following his unbeaten season of four wins, including
two-thirds of the Triple Crown. His coronation has become even more likely as
rivals have followed him to stud or suffered untimely illnesses and injuries.
The events of the past week have done little to change this perception.
An explosive victory in the Haskell Invitational suggested Paynter
could make a strong late-season rally in the championship race. A victory over
older horses would have been imperative — arguably nothing less than the
Breeders’ Cup Classic — but those hopes look increasingly dim.
Owner Ahmed Zayat tweeted Tuesday morning that Paynter has fallen sick again.
Illness forced the colt to miss last weekend’s Travers, and has now all but
ended his chances of making the Pennsylvania Derby, which would have been his
final Breeders’ Cup prep.
Unless Paynter gets healthy again soon and manages to stay undefeated the
rest of the season while sweeping the right race(s), his candidacy appears
doomed.
Alpha recently replicated the feat of his sire, Bernardini, by
sweeping the Jim Dandy and Travers. The comparisons stop there as Bernardini was
already a classic winner when he annihilated his opposition in both Saratoga
races, while Alpha just barely managed to dead heat with the unheralded Golden
Ticket in the Midsummer Derby.
Alpha’s next port of call is the Pennsylvania Derby, certainly a path of
least resistance toward the Breeders’ Cup Classic. A sweep of the two races
would be game-changing, but his weak speed ratings suggest he probably doesn’t
have the tools to defeat older horses, and might partially explain why his
connections are avoiding a more immediate confrontation with his elders in the
prestigious Jockey Club Gold Cup.
Dullahan registered a strong win in last Sunday’s Pacific Classic at
Del Mar, giving a somewhat maligned and injury-prone crop of three-year-olds a
needed boost with a credible triumph against older horses.
While that win would normally have given Dullahan’s candidacy a boost, the
victory proved little other than the colt remains a creature of Polytrack. All
three of his career wins have been on the surface, and he is 6-0-0-2 on dirt.
With the Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita rather than at Churchill Downs, where
he finished a decent third in the Kentucky Derby, Dullahan has his work cut out
for enhancing his resume sufficiently to seize the championship with a late bid.
His connections also seem to have turned their focus toward keeping him happy
and healthy for a shot at the $10 million Dubai World Cup next March.
***
Three-year-old filly: A nine-length romp in the Alabama, which came on
the heels of a 4 1/4-length decision in the Coaching Club American Oaks, has put
Questing in the driver’s seat for divisional honors. Unless one of the
vanquished from the Alabama, say Grace Hall or In Lingerie, turns
the tables on her in the upcoming Cotillion at Parx Racing, Questing will enter
the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic an overwhelming choice to be champion.
One potential stumbling block for Questing is the location of the Breeders’
Cup. Only Ajina (1997) managed to travel from the East Coast to win a Ladies’
Classic/Distaff at either Santa Anita or Hollywood Park without any prior
experience on the circuit. That home court advantage might play into the hands
of a filly like Potesta, who has laid low since taking the Hollywood Oaks
in her stakes debut in June. She’s about to embark on a fall campaign in
Sunday’s Torrey Pines at Del Mar.
***
Older male: You know the older male division is trending in the wrong
direction when two of its last three champions were turf and/or synthetic
specialists. Right now, it seems there is sufficient talent among the dirt
performers to keep most of the electorate from unnecessarily venturing off the
reservation again.
The present favorite still looks like Game On Dude, who lost nothing
in defeat to Dullahan in the Pacific Classic. I was going to give Game On Dude a
pass regardless of how he performed at Del Mar, given his below-par try in the
same race last year, but the five-year-old ran a super race to finish a close
second behind a Polytrack specialist while easily besting the rest of the field.
Aside from his Dubai World Cup debacle over an unfamiliar Tapeta surface,
Game On Dude has posted a stellar record this season with daylight scores in the
San Antonio and Californian, and a more workmanlike tally in the Hollywood Gold
Cup. If he has a final Breeders’ Cup prep, it would likely be in the Awesome
Again (formerly the Goodwood). His home court advantage makes him the probable
favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Ron the Greek is the second most interesting candidate. While far from
a win machine, he hasn’t finished worse than second in five starts this season,
posting wins in the Santa Anita Handicap and Stephen Foster Handicap. The former
victory is key as it’s been historically difficult for East Coast-based runners
to find their way into the winner’s circle following a Breeders’ Cup Classic at
Santa Anita. At least we know he likes the track.
Fort Larned‘s most important stakes win among four so far this year
was the Whitney Handicap, when he got the jump over Ron the Greek. If he can add
the Jockey Club Gold Cup to his resume, he could be in very good shape with a
strong Breeders’ Cup performance. He has no experience racing out west, but as a
grandson of the Hall of Fame mare Bayakoa he might have inherited a fondness of
the San Gabriel Mountains as a backdrop.
Wise Dan can run on anything, but trainer Charlie Lopresti seems to be
concentrating on getting the colt ready for the Breeders’ Cup Mile rather the
Classic. We’ll discuss him more in depth below. Shackleford is another
who looks like a more serious contender for another division, namely champion
male sprinter.
This weekend’s Woodward at Saratoga features Mucho Macho Man and To
Honor and Serve, two colts both trying to prove they are more than just
one-turn specialists against top company. Alternation, a prolific winner
this term, looks a cut below these.
By missing the Pacific Classic due to injury, a successful title defense by
Acclamation seems unlikely as he’ll probably concentrate on grass racing
when he returns to action. Or at least I hope it’s unlikely.
***
Older female: Last Sunday’s Personal Ensign Handicap was a
disappointing loss for both Royal Delta and It’s Tricky, but their
championship hopes were hardly affected.
Royal Delta, who was quite washy in the pre-race warm-up, might not have been
at her best psychologically to run to her usual standard. Although she wound up
losing by only a half-length, she never looked like a potential winner at any
point in the final furlong.
It’s Tricky arguably ran the best race under the circumstances. She stumbled
twice leaving the gate so it obviously took longer than normal for her to regain
her footing. She did manage to make a strong rally rounding the final turn when
she found an open path along the inside, but her bid petered out rather quickly
trying to overcome too much.
Both fillies have had solid campaigns this season, and another match between
the two might be in the offing in the Beldame in late September.
As is the case with Questing, Royal Delta and It’s Tricky might be at a
potential disadvantage over the Santa Anita strip in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’
Classic. One who will not be is Include Me Out, who has compiled an
excellent record on the West Coast this season with seemingly little national
fanfare.
Outside of a loss in the Vanity Handicap, where she idled with a big lead in
the stretch only to be run down by a longshot, Include Me Out claimed the
hardware in the La Canada, Santa Margarita, Marjorie L. Everett Handicap and
Clement L. Hirsch.
***
Turf divisions: The European contingent will always be tough to knock
off in Breeders’ Cup grass races, and often a victory on the day propels one or
two into Eclipse Award favoritism. We really won’t know whose traveling from
across the pond for awhile yet, but awaiting them will be some talented American
performers.
On the male side, the best Turf candidates appear to be Acclamation
and Point of Entry. Acclamation has been all by himself in winning most
of the leading grass races in California, and if he recovers sufficiently it
will be interesting to see how he adapts to facing a much more talented group of
opponents than he’s run against the past couple of years.
Point of Entry has been a pleasant surprise this year for owner “Dinny”
Phipps and trainer Shug McGaughey, and could easily pad his championship
credentials in the Joe Hirsh Turf Classic in late September. With consecutive
wins in the Elkhorn, Man o’ War and Sword Dancer Invitational, all by increasing
margins, he’s undoubtedly America’s past 12-furlong grass horse at the moment.
The aforementioned Wise Dan could present a strong challenge to any
European turf miler who comes over, especially if he can reproduce his recent
Fourstardave Handicap performance in the Woodbine Mile in a few weeks. We think
a little less of Little Mike, who was fortunate to receive no pressure
when scooping up the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic and Arlington Million in
wire-to-wire fashion. A miler at heart, he’s gotten in trouble in the past when
hooked into a fast pace.
The result of the Beverly D. a couple of weeks ago suggests the female turf
division is much more vulnerable to European exploitation. Marketing Mix,
whose second-place effort prevented an all-Europe trifecta in the Beverly D.,
seems best on the American bench but doesn’t yet look the kind to beat higher-class European imports.
The three-year-old Lady of Shamrock, who hangs her hat in Southern
California, is the dominant force in her division and will probably step up to
face her elders in the Rodeo Drive (formerly the Yellow Ribbon) en route to the
Filly & Mare Turf. The home course advantage should her Eclipse Award chances.
***
Male sprinter: Despite setbacks in two of his four starts this year,
defending champion Amazombie probably holds the cards with his home
course hosting the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. He’s won four of his past five starts
over Santa Anita’s main track, including last year’s Ancient Title, now blandly
renamed the Santa Anita Sprint Championship, which will serve as his final prep
for the Breeders’ Cup.
California has other viable candidates like Pat O’Brien winner Capital
Account, as well as veterans The Factor and Camp Victory.
The East Coast sprinters don’t appear to be a strong group. If successful in
Saturday’s Forego at Saratoga, Shackleford would have two seven-furlong
stakes wins on the year to go with his Metropolitan Handicap score at a mile,
but it would be a surprise if he cuts back to six panels for the Breeders’ Cup
Sprint to take aim at an Eclipse Award. The Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile would be a
more likely option.
***
Female sprinter: The Filly & Mare Sprint has the potential to be one
of the most intriguing races of Breeders’ Cup weekend, at least from a
championship perspective.
Turbulent Descent, who endured a terrible trip in last year’s renewal
at Churchill Downs, will be among the favorites after winning her first two
races of the season — the Desert Stormer Handicap and Ballerina. Winner of the
Santa Anita Oaks early last year, Turbulent Descent should have no trouble
readjusting to Southern California living when the time comes. The trip, as was
shown last year, will be key.
With Questing a potentially stronger candidate for the Ladies’ Classic,
trainer Kiaran McLaughlin might opt to put It’s Tricky in the Filly &
Mare Sprint instead. Her one-turn record this year — victories in the Distaff
Handicap and Ogden Phipps — is stellar enough.
Groupie Doll, who impressively captured the Humana Distaff and Madison
in the spring, is about to return to action in the Presque Isle Downs Masters as
she works her way toward California. Acorn and Test scorer Contested,
along with Rancho Bernardo Handicap heroine Winding Way, appear best of
the three-year-old class. Defending champion Musical Romance just started
getting back to work Tuesday in her first published move since taking the
Princess Rooney Handicap in early July.
***
Juvenile and Steeplechase divisions: The outcomes of the two-year-old
races are usually heavily dependent on the results of the corresponding
Breeders’ Cup races, so we’ll wait and see how things shake out in early
November.
As usual, the steeplechase division is currently in a great state of flux and
there’s not much sense forming an opinion until the Lonesome Glory, Grand
National and Colonial Cup have been run.