FILLY & MARE TURF PREVIEW
Although North American-based runners have won eight of 13 editions of the
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, European shippers have taken two out of three
runnings here at Santa Anita, and the edge could lie with the internationals
again.
Team Europe features a couple of outstanding three-year-old fillies in The
Fugue and Ridasiyna, tested veterans in Nahrain and I’m a Dreamer, and the hardy
Up from the Aidan O’Brien yard.
The leading American contenders are Marketing Mix, Zagora, and the sophomores
Lady of Shamrock and In Lingerie.
The Fugue has been aiming for this race for some time. As a 1 1/4-mile
specialist who needs firmer ground to do her best, she will find Santa Anita’s
conditions ideal. Trained by John Gosden in England, The Fugue has scored a pair
of impressive victories this season, including a handy defeat of top older
fillies and mares in the Nassau. She has not raced since her terrific runner-up
effort in the 1 1/2-mile Yorkshire Oaks on August 23, when she was just
outdueled by Shareta (who takes on males in Saturday’s Turf).
Interestingly, The Fugue was sired by Dansili, who is himself a full brother
to two past Filly & Mare Turf winners — Banks Hill (2001) and Intercontinental
(2005).
The French-based Ridasiyna comes off the biggest win of her fledgling career
in the Prix de l’Opera, a “Win & You’re In” event, which guaranteed her a spot
in this field. That came on heavy ground, however, and it remains to be seen
whether she can duplicate a similar performance on the much quicker turf in
Southern California. Trainer Mikel Delzangles has also wondered how the Aga Khan
homebred will handle international travel. Four-for-five so far, Ridasiyna
became nervous prior to her only loss.
The English filly Nahrain, a close runner-up in last year’s Filly & Mare Turf
at Churchill Downs, most recently invaded Belmont Park and captured the Flower
Bowl. That was by far her best performance this season. Nahrain had run well
below that level in her first three outings of 2012, when beaten by The Fugue
and Up.
Aside from being a “Win & You’re In” race, the Flower Bowl has historically
been the key prep, producing four winners of the Filly & Mare Turf. But two of
those four had lost the Flower Bowl prior to winning the Filly & Mare Turf. That
statistic boosts the confidence of Zagora and I’m a Dreamer, the close runner-up
and fourth from the Flower Bowl.
Zagora, who began her career in her native France, has ranked as one of
America’s top performers in this division for the past two years. She has a
tremendous closing kick, as evidenced by her course record-setting victory in
the Ballston Spa at Saratoga two starts back. And she is trained by a rising
star in the sport, Chad Brown, who learned his craft by working for the late
Hall of Famer Bobby Frankel.
The only question is whether Zagora is as effective at this longer distance.
She has run very well in all four starts at 1 1/4 miles, but has won just once
at the trip. The 1 1/4-mile Flower Bowl doesn’t provide a clear answer: was
Zagora run down late by Nahrain because she was reaching the upper end of her
stamina, or did the rain-softened ground at Belmont sap her? Even if this trip
stretches her a bit, the firm turf could help her to see it out.
English invader I’m a Dreamer is better than her fourth in the Flower Bowl
implies, especially because she got off a step slow. A game competitor in strong
company in Europe, she had previously shipped to Arlington Park for the Beverly
D. and took home that “Win & You’re In” prize. I’m a Dreamer was given a perfect
trip that day.
Marketing Mix was arguably unlucky in the Beverly D., since she had to wait
for running room, and spotted I’m a Dreamer a tactical advantage that she could
not overcome. She got a rider switch to Garrett Gomez for the Rodeo Drive, the
“Win & You’re In” prep over the same course and distance as the Filly & Mare
Turf. Gomez executed a well-timed move, and Marketing Mix rolled to a convincing
win. Yet she must buck the historical trends in the Breeders’ Cup. The Rodeo
Drive was formerly known as the Yellow Ribbon, and that prep has yet to produce
a single winner of the Filly & Mare Turf.
An even more daunting historical challenge confronts Lady of Shamrock and In
Lingerie: no American-based three-year-old filly has managed to win this race.
Lady of Shamrock, the American Oaks and Del Mar Oaks winner, reigns as the
best three-year-old turf filly in California. She has yet to face the older
generation, however, and she missed her intended prep in the Rodeo Drive because
of a minor respiratory issue. As a result, Lady of Shamrock enters the biggest
test of her career off a 2 1/2-month layoff, and not the way that Sadler
envisioned it. But Lady of Shamrock boasts a three-for-three mark over this
course, and can be competitive if she’s sharp enough off works alone.
In Lingerie has never raced on turf before, and this is a tough spot for such
a debut. The Todd Pletcher trainee does have a few things in her favor, though.
As a daughter of Empire Maker, she figures to handle turf, and she is a perfect
three-for-three on Polytrack, a synthetic surface that often plays kindly to
turf horses. In Lingerie just defeated a solid group of older rivals in the
Spinster, proving herself outside of her own age group. Moreover, she has the
tactical speed to go to the front early in a race that lacks a dedicated front
runner. Drawing post 12 could prompt her to take up that pacesetting role.