HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
NOVEMBER 30, 2012
by Dick Powell
Mike Repole has been an outspoken critic of the Breeders’ Cup the past few
years. First, it was Belmont Park not being part of any rotation of sites to
hold it. Repole was so mad each time the Breeders’ Cup announced that it was
going back to Santa Anita or Churchill Downs that he encouraged the New York
Racing Association to hold their major stakes races at the same time and give
East Coast horses an option instead of shipping to the Cup.
Repole, whose silks are the same blue and orange of the New York Mets (by the
way, blue and orange are the official colors of the City of New York) and who
was once rumored to have an interest in buying the baseball franchise, even
offered to put up his own money to seed the purse structure and make it
lucrative enough to stay home.
This year, Repole boycotted the Breeders’ Cup completely over the Lasix
issue. He did not send his juveniles, who would not have been allowed to race on
Lasix, and kept everybody else at home as well, including Stay Thirsty, who
skipped the Breeders’ Cup Classic in favor of the Grade 1 Cigar Mile at Aqueduct
on Saturday.
Despite a bulging bank account from the sale of Vitamin Water, everything
else about Repole is blue collar so what better venue than the Big A for his
horses to race after skipping the glitz and glamour of Santa Anita.
His weekend began on Thanksgiving Day when Caixa Eletronica dominated the
Grade 3 Fall Highweight Handicap while racing much closer to the pace than usual
and blowing away the speedy This One’s for Phil by four lengths in 1:08.69,
earning an excellent 108 BRIS Speed rating.
It was the culmination of a sensational year for Caixa Eletronica who has
earned over $1.1 million this year alone for the 6yo horse that was claimed on
March 11, 2011 for $62,500 by Repole. Instead of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint or
Dirt Mile, Repole picked up a Grade 3 stakes and $90K first prize.
On Friday, Repole had Notacatbutallama in the Super Mario Stakes instead of
the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Sent off as the 1-2 favorite for Todd Pletcher,
he broke a bit slow and had to race in behind horses before a hole opened up in
the stretch and Johnny Velazquez sent him through to win easily. It was the
second, wide-margin stakes win for Repole/Pletcher, which quickly ended on
Saturday.
The first graded stakes race on Saturday at Aqueduct was the Grade 2
Demoiselle Stakes for juvenile fillies going nine furlongs on the main track.
Velazquez put Unlimited Budget on the lead right from the start and kept favored
Emollient at bay. It was a brilliant ride by Velazquez as he took advantage of
his filly’s tactical speed and handiness to foil every challenge that Emollient
could mount. The final margin was 1 1/4 lengths, but they could have gone around
again and Unlimited Budget was not going to let anyone get by her.
Next up was the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes for 2yo males going nine furlongs on
the main track. Instead of Velazquez, Repole/Pletcher had Ramon Dominguez in the
irons aboard Overanalyze and he needed every ounce of talent and tactics to pull
this off.
At the start, Javier Castellano sent Delhomme, also trained by Pletcher, to
the front while Dominguez had Overanalyze perfectly placed on his outside flank.
They ran as a team through fractions of :48.08 and 1:12.54 and they both looked
to be in big trouble as Normandy Invasion was making up ground willingly on the
far turn.
It looked like Normandy Invasion was going to blow right by, but the Pletcher
team fought back and it was a three-horse, ding-dong battle to the wire.
Delhomme was the first to crack as he weakened ever so slightly and at the wire,
Dominguez had Overanalyze’s nose down when it counted to achieve the improbable
result.
Either Normandy Invasion used up all his fuel while making up the ground
needed to catch up with the leaders or just hung when it counted but if there
would have been in-race betting, he would have been odds-on turning for home.
For Overanalyze, it was his second Grade 2 stakes win of the year and first
going two turns. He earned a huge 104 BRIS Speed rating.
Not in the race, but a winner nonetheless, was Uncaptured, who won the Grade
2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes going two turns at Churchill Downs on Saturday for
Mark Casse. In the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes last month, Uncaptured beat
Overanalyze by eight lengths so his form looks terrific going into next year.
With four stakes wins in a row, I wasn’t too confident with Stay Thirsty’s
chances in the Cigar Mile. Yes, good things come in threes but to expect
Repole/Pletcher to win three graded stakes in a row is pretty unusual and I was
afraid that all the good karma was used up.
The field of seven was reduced to five when Jersey Town and Associate were
scratched in the morning. Associate figured to be part of the early pace so now
it looked even worse for Stay Thirsty since the pace might be too soft for him
to rally into.
At the start, Stay Thirsty broke a bit slow and wound up in fourth behind the
three horses dueling for the lead. As expected, Buffum went to the lead but he
was pressed by Coil, who broke well, unlike in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint when he
got left, and Groupie Doll, who was a late entry in the race due to coming out
of her Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint win in such great shape.
The leading trio went through the half in a pedestrian 47.04 seconds. The
track Saturday at Aqueduct was hard to figure out since most of the races were
run very slowly even though it was watered between races. The wind looked like
it was at the horses back down the backstretch but the early fractions did not
always support this. My guess is that the pace was real slow and the leaders
would have plenty left in the tank turning for home.
Dominguez kept Stay Thirsty in behind and after deciding not to wait for
running room on the inside, he swung to the outside to take clear aim at the
leaders. As they approached the final furlong, Coil and Buffum began to weaken
and suddenly Groupie Doll looked like she had an insurmountable lead.
The winner of five graded stakes in a row since adding blinkers was making
her bid for Horse of the Year and only one horse could now deny her. Stay
Thirsty was closing relentlessly but even a 100 yards from the wire, it looked
like he would fall short. Groupie Doll kept on going while Stay Thirsty would
not give up.
One stride short of the wire and Stay Thirsty had a nose in front and on the
final bob, he won it by the slimmest of margins. When you watch the replay
again, just watch the jockeys. At no time, even in the winning photo, was
Dominguez ever ahead of Rajiv Maragh on Groupie Doll. He’s at least a foot
behind at the wire.
For Stay Thirsty, it’s the end of a career where he played second fiddle to
stablemate Uncle Mo for his first two years of racing. This year, he was pointed
toward the championship part of the season but got off to an awful start and was
below the radar screen for most of the year. He now has a Grade 1 win going a
mile to go with his Grade 1 win going 10 furlongs in the Travers and should be
well received at stud.
For Groupie Doll, an agonizing inch might have cost her Horse of the Year
honors. Had she won the photo, it would have been very tough to deny her the
title. Luckily for us, she’ll be back next year for another campaign after a
well deserved rest.
And, for Repole, it was confirmation that the decision he made to stay home
was worth it. His only problem now is if NYRA ever follows his advice and holds
a major day of racing to compete with the Breeders’ Cup, Repole’s success on
Saturday might scare horses away.
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