INTERNATIONALS IN THE
BREEDERS’ CUP
NOVEMBER 2, 2012
Breeders’ Cup Saturday
Although Santa Anita’s reversion from synthetic Pro-Ride to dirt has ended
European interest in such main-track events as the Juvenile and Classic,
international intrigue abounds in the Breeders’ Cup races on turf.
Accordingly, here’s the intelligence briefing on the cavalry invading
Saturday.
Juvenile Turf
DUNDONNELL — Juddmonte Farms homebred brings arguably the strongest form to
a competitive race. The Roger Charlton trainee got his first-crop sire First
Defence off to a fast start at stud with a 12-length maiden conquest at
Lingfield, and in juvenile course-record time to boot. Dundonnell once again
encountered his preferred firmish ground in the Acomb at York, rallying to beat
a very good Mark Johnston colt in Steeler. Later Steeler beat Juvenile Turf
runner Artigiano in the Royal Lodge and most recently checked in third to early
Epsom Derby favorite Kingsbarns in the Racing Post Trophy. Dundonnell met with a
narrow defeat in his only outing in the interim, a half-length second to
Toronado in the Champagne at Doncaster. Toronado, one of Richard Hannon’s
most-touted juveniles, had everything his own way on the front end that day, and
Dundonnell performed well to close the gap as much as he did. The top two were
clear of one of Godolphin’s admirable servants, Tha’Ir, in third, giving further
evidence of the depth of the race. Dundonnell was under serious consideration
for the Dewhurst and Racing Post Trophy, but the wet conditions ruled him out,
to the benefit of the Breeders’ Cup. He descends from the male line of 1990
Classic winner Unbridled and 1995 Juvenile winner Unbridled’s Song. First
Defence is out of Honest Lady, runner-up in the 2000 Sprint, and Dundonnell is
himself out of a full sister to global supersire Danehill.
ARTIGIANO — Godolphin colt rates just behind Dundonnell in light of his
runner-up effort to Steeler in the Royal Lodge, but it would be no surprise if
he steps up at Santa Anita. Bred on the potent Distorted Humor/Seattle Slew-line
cross, Artigiano has been a consistent improver all season. He was beaten two
lengths by Hannon’s top-class Olympic Glory in the Superlative on heavy ground,
and reduced that margin to just a half-length next time in the Vintage at
Glorious Goodwood. The Mahmood al Zarooni pupil took another step forward in the
Royal Lodge, where he had Steeler on the ropes until they hit the rising ground.
Artigiano won’t be subjected to such a stiff test going a flat mile here. Last
year’s Juvenile Turf upsetter, Wrote, also came out of a loss in the Royal
Lodge, and Artigiano could be a similar overlay at 8-1 on the morning line.
FANTASTIC MOON — Trainer Jeremy Noseda, who has finished fourth in this race
with both Awesome Act (2009) and Strike the Deal (2007), believes that Fantastic
Moon is a better Juvenile Turf prospect than either of them. Another overlay at
12-1, Fantastic Moon technically ranks beneath Dundonnell through collateral
form, but that is partly a product of his extreme come-from-behind tactics. The
Dalakhani colt flew late to deny Tha’Ir in the Solario at Sandown, but was
buffeted in the Royal Lodge, couldn’t regroup, and suffered first loss when
fifth. A similar trip would ruin his chances at Santa Anita, but Noseda is
astute enough to know that ahead of time. Speaking to Graham Cunningham in a
video on sportinglife.com, Noseda intimated that Fantastic Moon would secure a
more forward early position for new rider Kieren Fallon.
GEORGE VANCOUVER — Trainer Aidan O’Brien must be respected in this race,
having sent out Wrote as well as a couple of near-miss seconds in Westphalia
(2008) and Achill Island (2007), and George Vancouver has the profile to keep up
the percentages. Like his stablemate Infanta Branca (an also-eligible for the
Juvenile Fillies Turf), he is from the first crop of star miler
Henrythenavigator. Undone by soft to heavy going in his first couple of starts,
he had to resort to the Polytrack at Dundalk to break his maiden, but did so
handily. George Vancouver finally got good ground in the Prix Morny and finished
well to take second, beaten three-quarters of a length by the undefeated
Reckless Abandon. Although he disappointed next time out going six furlongs at
the Curragh, George Vancouver signaled that he’s going the right way with a
third to Europe’s presumptive champion juvenile, the unbeaten Dawn Approach, in
the seven-furlong Dewhurst. Another step up to a mile on firm turf could bring
out additional improvement from the well-bred colt. Out of millionaire
Versailles Treaty, he is a half-brother to Grade 2 victor Saarland.
LINES OF BATTLE — Although he doesn’t have Group 1 placings like his
stablemate George Vancouver, this fellow O’Brien runner also has upside. A debut
maiden winner over Jim Bolger’s tough Leitir Mor, Lines of Battle wasn’t
disgraced when sixth to Dawn Approach in the Coventry at Royal Ascot. He was
just outdueled by another Bolger pupil, Grafelli, in the Tyros and wasn’t seen
again for 2 1/2 months. Reappearing in the Star Appeal over the Polytrack at
Dundalk, Lines of Battle drove to a good-looking decision, leaving Infanta
Branca behind in fourth in her comeback. The addition of cheekpieces seemed to
help the colt along on his learning curve. He could progress again here, but
post 14 won’t help.
RISING LEGEND — New recruit to the John Sadler barn was left on the
also-eligible list for his potential U.S. debut. Formerly trained by Hannon, the
Rock of Gibraltar colt has been competing at a lower level than the other
Europeans in this race. Rising Legend dropped his first four starts, finally
broke his maiden in a weak race at Brighton, and won a nursery with the
assistance of a four-pound weight concession. As a three-quarter brother to the
terrific sprinting mare Danehurst, he’s a useful prospect for the U.S. scene,
but not necessarily in this spot.
Turf Sprint
STARSPANGLEDBANNER — The former Australian and European champion sprinter
should still be living the good life as a Coolmore stallion, but fertility
problems sent him back into training with O’Brien. Making his first start off a
nearly two-year layoff, the son of Choisir flashed speed, but understandably
tired to a tailed-off last in the Phoenix Sprint at the Curragh.
Starspangledbanner did himself justice next time, rallying for a good second in
the Renaissance Stakes. The winner, Maarek, later captured the British Champions
Sprint at Ascot. But Starspangledbanner hasn’t had any luck since. He was a
logical contender on paper for the Prix de la Foret at Longchamp, only to find
the heavy going impassable and again trailed. Shortening up to five furlongs for
last Friday’s Mercury over Dundalk’s Polytrack, he was outpaced at the trip, but
reported home a decent fourth in what was essentially a workout. The
Starspangledbanner of 2010 would have been a much more compelling figure.
Although his runner-up effort in the Renaissance hints that he still has
ability, it’s doubtful that he can recapture his old glory, especially over a
unique downhill course that will present its own challenges of raw speed and
agility. Post 14 makes it even trickier.
Turf
ST NICHOLAS ABBEY — Defending champion is right in his element going 1 1/2
miles on a left-handed course, but will probably have to run even better than he
did a year ago to beat a true American star in Point of Entry. St Nicholas Abbey
has had another productive campaign, hitting the board in six of seven starts.
When encountering these race conditions, the O’Brien veteran just missed to
Cirrus des Aigles in the Dubai Sheema Classic and later romped in the Coronation
Cup for the second straight year. His formline with Cirrus was further enhanced
when that French gelding finished second to the all-conquering Frankel in the
Champion Stakes. St Nicholas Abbey ran three fine thirds over the summer, beaten
by Danedream in the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth going right-handed, by
Frankel in the 10 1/2-furlong Juddmonte International, and by Snow Fairy and
Nathaniel in the 10-furlong Irish Champion. His only blot this year was a
toss-out 11th in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on bottomless ground last out.
While he ought to bounce back here, it’s worth noting that he’s had a more
demanding schedule ahead of this trip to the Breeders’ Cup. Last year, he didn’t
start out in Dubai, and he had the benefit of a late-summer break. In contrast,
he’s been continually on the go in 2012. That might mean nothing, or if he ends
up being a touch flat, it would mean a lot in hindsight.
SHARETA — The Aga Khan homebred is another who seeks to rebound off a
completely uncharacteristic ninth in the Arc. In two respects, the Turf shapes
up well for her: she’ll get firm turf and a fast pace that will make it a
truly-run affair, bringing out her stamina. Last year’s Arc had both
prerequisites, and Shareta outperformed her 66-1 odds to finish best of the rest
behind Danedream. The daughter of Sinndar has verified that result with two
significant victories this season, just reeling in Filly & Mare Turf favorite
The Fugue in the Yorkshire Oaks and capturing the Prix Vermeille. But the big
question mark hanging over her head is whether she’ll act as well around Santa
Anita as around the vast, sweeping expanses of Longchamp or York. She’s yet to
win at the left-handed Saint-Cloud, although she has run some excellent efforts
in defeat there. Still, Shareta can be outkicked by horses with a superior turn
of foot, and such a scenario is likelier at Santa Anita. Trainer Alain de Royer-Dupre
had just about said as much after the Yorkshire Oaks, when he virtually ruled
out the Breeders’ Cup: “She’s not a filly for America, as her action is too long
and the track at Santa Anita is too short.” Hence the Turf appears to be a
change of plan for what is reportedly her swan song. That didn’t work out too
well for the same connections’ Sarafina last year.
TRAILBLAZER — Japanese contender has a serious chance, if he doesn’t regress
off a huge runner-up effort in his U.S. debut in the Arroyo Seco (formerly the
Oak Tree) Mile. Trained by Yasutoshi Ikee, whose star pupil is Japanese Horse of
the Year and Arc near-misser Orfevre, Trailblazer was in the form of his life at
this time last year. He took advantage of an eight-pound break in the weights to
defeat the grand old campaigner Oken Bruce Lee in the Copa Republica Argentina,
then followed up with a fourth against an international field in the Japan Cup.
Among those Trailblazer beat that day were Danedream and Shareta. Wheeling back
only two weeks later for the Hong Kong Vase, Trailblazer could do no better than
sixth behind Melbourne Cup hero Dunaden. He kicked off 2012 on a high note by
taking the Kyoto Kinen, but his Japanese career, and hopes of jetting off to
Dubai, were squelched by bleeding problems. The Breeders’ Cup then became his
objective. Racing with Lasix in the Arroyo Seco, he would have done well to make
up any ground at a distance shorter than he’d ever tried. But Trailblazer
exceeded expectations, rallying boldly to fall a half-length shy of Mile
contender Obviously in near track-record time. That was a fantastic prep for the
Turf, but he must avoid the pitfalls of his compatriot, Red Desire. She too had
bleeding issues, ran a tremendous race first time out in the United States, but
actually regressed to finish fourth in the 2010 Filly & Mare Turf.
TREASURE BEACH — St Nicholas Abbey’s stablemate has found life tougher since
his hard-fought wins in the 2011 Irish Derby and Secretariat Stakes. Indeed, he
appeared an unhappy globetrotter until last time out, when finishing second to
Point of Entry in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational. The yielding ground
at Belmont might have given him a little boost, but he’ll have no such crutch in
the Breeders’ Cup. Given how Treasure Beach was used as a pacemaker in last
year’s Arc, it would not be unheard of if he were employed as a tactical
assistant for St Nicholas Abbey. He won’t need to set the pace, with the likes
of Little Mike, Optimizer, Turbo Compressor and Slim Shadey all prominent. But
he might try to make an early move to put the leaders under pressure, and
possibly force Point of Entry to move sooner than he’d like, before St Nick
arrives.
COGITO — Reddam colorbearer would be a total surprise in his first start for
Doug O’Neill. His career-best effort was a solid second in the Prix Eugene Adam
to Bayrir, the eventual Secretariat winner, while beating a couple of subsequent
Group winners in Fractional and Starboard. Yet that isn’t sufficient for a race
of this caliber, and the rest of his record provides unflattering signals. The
well-bred son of Giant’s Causeway showed promise when taking his first two
career starts in England, but the form of his Heron Stakes victory has not held
up at all. Cogito deserves a pass for his eighth in the St James’s Palace, in
which several were hampered by a fatally-stricken rival. He has a couple of
excuses for his lackluster fourth in the Jamaica Handicap in his U.S. debut. The
Belmont turf was likely softer than the officially-listed “good,” and Cogito put
himself in a tougher spot by breaking slowly. After that kind of display,
perhaps the Twilight Derby would have been a more realistic option.
Mile
EXCELEBRATION — But for a cruel twist of fate, Excelebration would have gone
down in history as one of the most consistently brilliant milers that Europe has
produced in the modern era. He still could garner that description, but he will
most likely be remembered as the classy horse who kept chasing Frankel, each
victory of his own merely serving to prove his conqueror’s greatness. Since
finishing fourth in his career debut, Excelebration has won every single race
he’s contested, except for his five run-ins with Frankel. He has finished second
to the phenom four of those times, the lone exception being his troubled third
in the 2011 St James’s Palace. Purchased privately by Coolmore, Excelebration
was transferred to O’Brien for 2012. After more drubbings at Frankel’s hands in
the Lockinge and Queen Anne, his connections decided that discretion was the
better part of valor, and he studiously swerved Frankel. A lesser creature might
have been damaged beyond repair, his heart and spirit crushed by Frankel, but
Excelebration simply did what we always does away from Frankel: win. He beat
Cityscape by 1 1/4 lengths in the Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville, and by a
much more resounding three lengths in the Queen Elizabeth II at Ascot in his
latest. That was Excelebration’s most comprehensive career victory — he was on
cruise control throughout, overcame traffic trouble, and stuffed Cityscape in
short order. Cityscape, racing on his preferred soft ground, ran much better
than his somewhat tame third behind Mile favorite Wise Dan at Woodbine.
Extrapolating from that verdict, Excelebration could have Wise Dan’s measure.
MOONLIGHT CLOUD — If Excelebration is Frankel’s proxy, then Moonlight Cloud
is going to bat for Australia’s wondermare Black Caviar. A furiously-closing
second to Black Caviar in the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee, she came up just a head
short of inflicting a first defeat upon the world’s best sprinter. Although one
can otherwise poke holes in the overall strength of the Diamond Jubilee form,
Moonlight Cloud has plenty else to recommend her. She is trained by five-time
Mile winner Freddie Head, famous for his jockeyship aboard Miesque and his
conditioning of Goldikova. It would be hyperbole to put her in that category
just yet, but she does own two consecutive, wide-margin wins over males in the
Group 1 Maurice de Gheest sprinting about 6 1/2 furlongs at Deauville, and she
just earned her first victory at a mile in the Group 1 Prix du Moulin. In the
latter, she prevailed narrowly over Godolphin’s able Farhh, who boasts a pair of
runner-up finishes behind Frankel as well as placings to Nathaniel and So You
Think this year. Two starts back, Moonlight Cloud was a mightily-troubled fourth
to Excelebration in the Marois. She was banged into, lost position, yet still
closed well and would have been much closer without the interference. She still
has to be ranked below Excelebration until she proves otherwise, but Head has
been sounding rather confident this week.
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