HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
DECEMBER 21, 2012
by Dick Powell
Todd Pletcher had two juvenile colts at Saratoga that
caught my eye this year. The first was Revolutionary, who flew home in
a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight race on closing day at Saratoga after being
clobbered at the start.
He came back eight weeks later at Belmont Park going six
furlongs and wound up second as the 2-5 favorite behind Little Distorted, who was extremely impressive winning his career debut.
So at that point, Revolutionary had a legitimate excuse in
his debut then had the misfortune of running into a monster next time out. The
public made him the 3-10 favorite in a maiden race going a mile on the Grade 1 Cigar Mile
undercard and, once again, Revolutionary failed to deliver, beaten just over four
lengths while finishing third.
So even if he turns out to be a nice three-year-old next year, I was
wrong about Revolutionary.
The other Pletcher two that caught my eye was Violence. He began his career going seven furlongs on August 18 and went off as
the 4-5 favorite. On a track that was very fast and speed-favoring, he wound
up in a stalking position after a poor break. Titletown Five gunned to
the front in his third career start and looked like a winner every step of the
way.
Violence was put into a chasing role for about five
furlongs and he was up to the task. He gradually wore down Titletown Five and
won by a hard-earned neck in the terrific time of 1:22.91, which was way faster
than the Grade 2 Hopeful Stakes that was run at the end of the meet.
What I loved about
the race was how he did it against the bias and kept on trying. Maidens that gun
to the front and win by five really don’t answer any questions about how they
will do when up against winners. Violence’s maiden win was as legitimate as you
will ever see.
With so many winning juveniles at Saratoga, it didn’t matter
where Pletcher put his horses as he had the task of keeping them apart. Violence
was brought back 10 weeks later in the Grade 2 Nashua Stakes at Aqueduct going a
mile. He raced behind the leaders, pulled out about four wide to go around them
but lugged in at the eighth-pole as he took the lead.
After a steward’s inquiry, the result stood and Violence
was now a graded winner with a BRIS Speed rating of 96. At this point,
his options were the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs, the
Grade 2 Remsen Stakes back at Aqueduct or the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity later in
December. Pletcher decided on the Futurity and the results were spectacular.
Last Saturday’s Futurity drew a field of 11 and four of
them came from the Bob Baffert barn. Even so, the betting public was well aware
of Violence and they bet him down to 6-5 favoritism.
Four horses decided to go to the front, which enabled Javier Castellano to sit in behind while saving ground. With a first quarter in
:22 4/5
and a half in :46, the pace was true and Castellano was getting the
garden trip. As the quartet headed into the far turn, Castellano tried to split
them but wound up getting shuffled back a bit.
Finally, at the three-eighths pole, Castellano was able to get
Violence off the rail and he split horses at the top of the stretch and set sail
after the leader, Fury Kapcori, who had forged to a clear lead after
putting away all the other speed horses. Violence showed no signs of the lugging
in that he did in the Nashua and went after the leader. In no time, he reeled
him in and drew off to a convincing win. The final margin was 1 1/4 lengths and his final time of 1:43
2/5 earned him a 98 BRIS Speed rating.
In my mind, Violence is the leader going into next year’s
classics. He has tons of stamina in his pedigree, a high cruising speed and a
finishing kick. Switching to the synthetic track was no problem and he showed he
can race in traffic and pounce when a hole opens up.
Pletcher will have to spend many a night with his owners
devising a plan to get them through the Kentucky Derby prep season so I
have no idea where Violence will show up next. I’m hoping he goes to Fair
Grounds, which has a kinder main track than Gulfstream Park.
Three wins on three different tracks is important as the
Churchill Downs main track can be quite different from day-to-day. Violence had
handled everything thrown at him and he still projects the impression that there
is more in the tank. I would rate him as every bit as good a two-year-old as Pletcher’s
Derby winner, Super Saver, was at this point in his career.
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