HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
DECEMBER 28, 2012
by Dick Powell
Santa Anita opened the day after Christmas and had a terrific day of
meaningful racing. Rain hit the area and all the turf races were switched to the
main track with the exception of the Grade 2 Sir Beaufort Stakes, which stayed
on the turf. The main track started out listed as wet-fast and then was upgraded
by the 6TH race to fast, although there was plenty of moisture in it based on
the horses coming back to be unsaddled.
The Grade 1, $300,000 La Brea Stakes was the 4TH race and the first of the
three stakes races scheduled. My Miss Aurelia was making her first start since
the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic, where she was a game second behind Royal
Delta in her first career loss.
Instead of taking the rest of the year off and resting up for her
four-year-old campaign, her connections decided to try get one more Grade 1
stakes win on her resume to try and clinch the Eclipse Award for champion
three-year-old filly.
Unfortunately for her, the La Brea is at seven furlongs and a strong field
showed up to contest it. The betting public was not having any of it and made My
Miss Aurelia the 2-5 favorite.
Earlier this year, there were three sophomore fillies that were on the verge
of invading the top ranks of the division. Book Review broke her maiden going
seven furlongs at Belmont in her third career start and beat Dance Card in the
process. Book Review already had two starts and Dance Card was making her debut,
so the result was not that surprising, but it showed two emerging fillies that
are bred to go much longer.
Next time out, Book Review ran into Questing, who was making her main track
debut after some modest tries on the turf. Questing woke up with a sharp win and
earned a monstrous 107 BRIS Speed rating while Book Review earned a 103.
Questing went on to win the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks and the Grade
1 Alabama Stakes in her next two starts before losing to My Miss Aurelia in the
Grade 1 Cotillion Stakes. Book Review stayed in mostly sprint races for the rest
of the season and Dance Card lived up to her promise with a win in the Grade 1
Gazelle Stakes going nine furlongs while beating Book Review.
Wisely, Book Review was dropped back to seven furlongs for the La Brea and
not stretched out, but she was going to have to sacrifice a major pace edge
against these fillies.
At the start, Garrett Gomez gunned Reneesgotzip to the front and they were
challenged by longshot Nechez Dawn. No surprise there. Corey Nakatani went up
with My Miss Aurelia and challenged three wide instead of sitting behind the
dueling leaders. Big surprise there.
The three fillies went the first quarter in :22.42 and the half in a
blistering :44.17. Nakatani looked like he had a lot of horse underneath him
with My Miss Aurelia, but she was losing precious ground around the turn and
Reneesgotzip was not slowing down. Those two battled down the final furlong but
Rafael Bejarano had Book Review in full stride and was making up ground.
As they neared the wire, all three fillies were giving their all but the
momentum that Book Review had from her well-timed move was the difference in the
race. Under the conditions of the La Brea, My Miss Aurelia had to concede five
pounds to all her rivals so that, coupled with the ground loss, were more than
enough to explain the neck defeat.
Still, it was a bizarre ride by Nakatani who claimed after the race that My
Miss Aurelia was too fresh off the layoff and could not be controlled.
For Book Review, the race could not have set up any better and she joins
Eastern rivals Questing and Dance Card as a Grade 1 stakes winner.
The Grade 1 Malibu Stakes was the 8TH race, and it was another race where the
California bettors fell in love with an Eastern shipper. The Lumber Guy went off
as the 4-5 favorite with Unbridled’s Note next in the betting at 64-10.
Unlike some of the earlier races on the card, the Malibu actually had a slow
pace as Private Zone went the first quarter in :22.74. The Lumber Guy was
applying pressure in second while Basmati and Jimmy Creed stalked them.
The second quarter was a more-like-it 22.03 seconds as the pressure was
turned up. Private Zone was proving to be a tough customer showing that his
enormous BRIS Speed rating of 110 earned two starts back was no fluke. The
Lumber Guy began to fade and the horse with the most energy in the stretch was
Jimmy Creed.
The lightly-raced $900,000 yearling has been brought along slowly by Dick
Mandella, but then was thrown in the deep water in the Grade 1 Santa Anita
Sprint Championship two starts back and he was part of a blanket finish at the
wire. It was a good enough performance to earn a trip to the Breeders’ Cup
Sprint, but he was stuck down on the inside against the big field and showed
little.
Mandella showed his hand with a seven-furlong work in 1:24 4/5, which Andy
Harrington raved about in his National Turf Report. The finishing power he
showed in his last work was what he showed again when the money was on the line
and Jimmy Creed powered his way to a three-quarter length victory over a dead
game Private Zone. The final time for the seven furlongs was 1:20.36.
Being sired by Distorted Humor, Jimmy Creed could go anywhere from here. He
ran his career-best BRIS speed rating going two turns at Del Mar and with his
high cruising speed, there’s no reason to think he can’t get a distance of
ground. Especially when trained by Dick Mandella.