HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
JANUARY 25, 2013
by Dick Powell
The Triple Crown season begins in earnest this Saturday
with the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes going 1 1/16 miles on the main track at
Gulfstream Park. It attracted a terrific field of 10, including recently crowned
champion juvenile male SHANGHAI BOBBY, who will risk his
undefeated record against some serious rivals.
Yes, it would be nice to start the season off with an easy
race but that went out the window when this race was drawn. If Shanghai Bobby is
to win, he’s going to have to come out running as the field has many horses with
BRIS Speed ratings just as good if not better than his best ones.
The winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile going this
distance at Santa Anita, he has tactical speed and a decent finishing kick. In
the Juvenile, his pace figures were 102, 107, 74 which is usually the line you
see of a horse that gives it up in the stretch when the tank empties out.
Instead, Shanghai Bobby battled back on the inside when
challenged and showed the courage and determination that he will need if he is
to be a classic winner. His win in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes going a one-turn
mile was excellent and he’s back on Lasix for the Holy Bull. He has not missed a beat since
the Breeders’ Cup with a series of strong workouts at Palm Meadows, and he draws
the rail with regular rider Rosie Napravnik.
Breaking right next to him will be Ken McPeek’s FRAC DADDY, who will have the riding services of David Cohen. I was critical of
Cohen’s decision to leave New York and the comfort of riding first call for the
David Jacobson barn but this is the type of mount that he sacrificed for. A big
maiden winner going two turns at Churchill Downs in his second career start,
Frac Daddy came back in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and missed by a neck to the
classy UNCAPTURED with Cohen aboard.
CLEARLY NOW had three career starts, all up
at Woodbine on the synthetic Polytrack, and now tries dirt for the first time. He has good
tactical speed and should be a pace factor with Luis Saez in the irons.
BERN IDENTITY won the Grade 2 Sanford Stakes at
Saratoga going six furlongs, then came back with a third in the Grade 2 Hopeful Stakes
behind Shanghai Bobby. Kelly Breen sent him down to Delta Downs where he
won the Jean Laffitte going a mile, but his late rally could only get second when
the big money was on the line in the Grade 3 Delta Downs Jackpot. When he’s on his game,
Bern Identity cruises, and then pounces, and he gets the perfect rider for that
style — Paco
Lopez.
SR. QUISQUEYANO won his first three
career starts, including a 13 3/4-length win in a minor stakes race at Calder going
two turns. He followed that up with three straight seconds there in stakes races
at various distances, then was second here in the Gulfstream Park Derby in fast
time going a mile.
DEWEY SQUARE broke his maiden at Hoosier Park
by more than 11 lengths, then went to Churchill and beat allowance foes by four
lengths going this distance. He came back in the Kentucky Jockey Club and rallied wide for third. The son of Bernardini is out of a
dam by Forestry who won four stakes races and more than $342,000. Trained by Dale Romans, he
gets Corey Lanerie back aboard and has the look of a horse who will get better
with maturity and distance.
ITSMYLUCKYDAY has already had eight starts and
won the Gulfstream Park Derby here last out by more than six lengths to earn a
huge BRIS Speed rating of 111. He began his career as a sprinter but showed a
new dimension going a mile last out. Winning race over the track should make him
dangerous here.
TULIRA CASTLE broke his maiden second time out
going seven furlongs on the synthetic Polytrack at Arlington, then ran second at Keeneland
at the same distance. He came to Gulfstream and won going a mile, and now tries stakes
company for the first time. His sire, juvenile champion War Pass, is already
responsible for fellow three-year-old Revolutionary, who broke his maiden by a wide margin on the inner dirt
track while earning a strong BRIS Speed rating of 103 on December 28.
FREDERICKSBURG began his career with four
turf starts but tried dirt last out for the first time at Gulfstream and was a good
second going a mile behind Tulira Castle. He’s trained by Michael Matz, who adds
blinkers for the Holy Bull, and has a strong bottom-side pedigree.
The only horse in this year’s Holy Bull that really doesn’t
have a chance is JOSHUA’S COMPRISE, but he’s from the Rose Family
Stable who is always good for a shocking upset each season at Gulfstream.
I think Dewey Square has a big shot at upsetting the champ
in here and he’ll be my top choice. He has a strong dirt pedigree and shows the
good cruising speed that the better sons of Bernardini show. Romans has
made a living with these types of improving horses and this one should sit a
good trip.
*****
Every once in a while a horse does something that makes you
sit up and take notice. On Saturday at Santa Anita, the 2ND race was a very strong
maiden special weight for three-year-olds going six furlongs. Let Em Shine showed high speed in his career debut before tiring late. Now,
he was making his second start and the question was would Edwin Maldonado try to
rate him? Not a chance.
Let Em Shine gunned to the front and quickly
opened up by three lengths with the first quarter mile run in :21. Not urging
him but not fighting him either, Maldonado was content to let him go on and his
next quarter-mile around the turn was :22.23. He continued to widen his
margin until he hit the finish 7 1/2 lengths in front while stopping the teletimer
in 1:08.36.
I know the Santa Anita main track is especially quick but I
doubt if you will see a faster first quarter there. It was a dominating
performance and it looks like stakes company will be his next assignment since I
can’t imagine an allowance race filling if they suspect he’s going to enter it.