HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
JANUARY 11, 2013
by Dick Powell
The Dubai World Cup Carnival opened up at the spectacular Meydan Race Track
in Dubai on Thursday and, as always, it provided big, juicy fields with tons of
pari-mutuel value.
Each year, the Carnival offers 10 days of high class racing as a prelude to
the richest day of racing in the world; the night of the Dubai World Cup on
March 30. With strong purses available, many horsemen target the Carnival for a
special season of racing. With warm weather to train in and many expenses
covered by the Dubai Racing Club, more and more horsemen are showing up at
Meydan, which means big fields.
In fact, this year, the safety limit has been raised in some races from 14
runners to 16 to accommodate the amount of horses on the grounds and the
expansive turf course and Tapeta main track can handle it easily.
In no apparent order of importance, here are some of the areas you need to
know to have success at the races there:
Post positions do not match up with program numbers. Like most of the world,
post position draws are not tied to program numbers. In many cases, especially
in handicap races, the highest weighted horse is given program number 1 and so
on. Close to half the races at Meydan are international handicaps. When horses
have the same weight assigned, the numbers are then drawn alphabetically. In
most stakes races, the program number DOES match the post position.
Pay attention to the conditions of the handicap races. The typical ones that
you will see during the Carnival are for horses rated 95-105, 100-110 and 100+.
The ratings are found on the Dubai Racing Club web site:
www.dubairacingclub.com.
A horse could be rated 102 and eligible for all three conditions. The 100+
handicap races are similar to listed stakes races and many group stakes winners
show up in them since they could be rated 115 and be eligible.
Even though the turf course is usually “firm,” it will be listed as “good.”
And even though it usually is dry, the course has a degree of softness to it and
it is not the speed-favoring firm turf that we are used to. Previous experience
and success on it is important and you can use the Trakus information on the
Dubai Racing Club web site to see what the pace of the race was.
Frankie Dettori will not be riding this year’s Carnival as he is suspended
because of a positive drug test. The leading rider at the Carnival was always a
dominant presence here and it means major changes with the Godolphin operation,
which will now be using Mickael Barzalona and Silvestre De Sousa as their
primary riders. Ted Durcan gets a lot of rides from the Blue Team and does a
great job and often times you will see the lesser regarded entrant from
Godolphin get the job done.
The Tapeta main track provides a safe and fair racing surface for all the
horses. If there is a bias on it, it might be that the races run early on the
card do not favor speed as much as the races run late in the card. This is due
to the track cooling off and getting tighter as the night moves on. The main
track is banked on the turns so it’s not unusual to see a horse racing wide
coming out of the final turn and make a big move since he might be losing ground
but he’s not losing momentum.
On Opening Day this year, the simulcast feed sent over here did include the
Trakus information at the bottom of the screen, which makes it easier to follow
the races. Big improvement.
Pay attention to the various trainer interviews that are broadcast during the
raceday. Trainers like Saeed bin Suroor and Mike de Kock are incredibly candid
about their horses and hold nothing back. You can take what they say literally
and not have to get your “Trainer Speak” dictionary out.
Turf horses handle the Tapeta very well but if you pay close attention to the
past performances, there are plenty of European runners that already have form
on synthetic tracks. Just because a horse is coming in from there, it doesn’t
always mean that they are just a turf horse so pay attention to the “All
Weather” symbol in the past performances or the AW in the career box.
Betting is a bit different but similar to other international racing
jurisdictions. The pools are hosted by Phumelela in South Africa and are subject
to the rules of South African racing. There is Win and Place betting but Place
betting is similar to Show betting where it pays down three positions. So a
Place bet on a horse that finishes third still pays off.
Beyond Win and Place are the normal assortment of exactas, $.50 cent
Trifectas, $.10 cent Superfectas, rolling pick 3s and a late daily double. The
Exacta and Trifecta get a lot attention and the gigantic payoffs reflect the
field sizes that should be even bigger this year.
One guessing game that you have to play every year is when is a trainer using
a horse for just conditioning to get ready for a bigger race down the road. The
whole Carnival builds to a crescendo on World Cup night with its staggering
purses. Sometimes you’ll see a horse runs what seems to be a poor race, but it
really is just a stepping stone.
Last year, I misjudged Monterosso in the World Cup and it cost me dearly. The
previous year, I thought he had a big shot behind Victoire Pisa and he almost
pulled it off with a run up the inside at odds of 50-1. Last year, he was a dull
fourth, beaten 6 1/2 lengths in the Group 1 Maktoum Challenge Round III and I
didn’t use him the way I should of in the World Cup.
He came back three weeks later and was a different horse in the World Cup,
dominating by three lengths over a stellar field. His previous race was just a
warm-up and I missed it, which for me, was inexcusable since I gave him a big
chance the year before.
With racing each Thursday, you have plenty of time to go over replays, trakus
charts, and Steward’s Reports to get ready for the next week’s racing so you
should be tied on the next time they run.