COMMENTARY
FEBRUARY 7, 2013
Finding value in pool 1 of Kentucky Derby future wager
by Ed DeRosa
My strategy in recent future wagers has been to play horses
in the 20-1 to 50-1 range that I thought had a good chance of making the gate
and showed talent enough to win it. It’s a grind having many units tied up for
months, but it paid off last year when I got about 3-1 on my money when I’ll
Have Another rewarded my confidence in him early (Derby week I switched my pick
to Hansen, ugh!) and returned $1,669.50 on $395 wagered.
2012 future wagers: All bets
| Horse | Price | Investment | Return | |||
| Prospective | 200 | $5.00 | $1,000.00 | |||
| Cyber Secret | 325 | $5.00 | $1,625.00 | |||
| Wharton | 200 | $20.00 | $4,000.00 | |||
| Take Charge Indy | 42 | $30.00 | $1,260.00 | |||
| Rousing Sermon | 70.4 | $20.00 | $1,408.00 | |||
| Longview Drive | 141 | $5.00 | $705.00 | |||
 Junebugred |
58 | $10.00 | $580.00 | |||
| I’ll Have Another | 23.85 | $70.00 | $1,669.50 | |||
| Midnight Transfer | 68.26 | $25.00 | $1,706.50 | |||
| Scatman | 97.5 | $5.00 | $487.50 | |||
| Castaway | 45 | $10.00 | $450.00 | |||
| Empire Way | 37.1 | $20.00 | $742.00 | |||
| Mark Valeski | 38.7 | $20.00 | $774.00 | |||
| Secret Circle | 30.9 | $30.00 | $927.00 | |||
| FIELD 3 | 6.1 | $100.00 | $610.00 | |||
| My Adonis | 73.2 | $10.00 | $732.00 | |||
| On Fire Baby | 80.9 | $10.00 | $809.00 | |||
| Total: | $395 |
I think
this year’s offering (click for FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs on the 23
individual horses plus select “field” contenders) requires a different approach,
however, because
three of the top four horses in my mind are far better than the next tier of
horses. If the field and/or the other 20 individual betting interests take too
much money, then I wouldn’t hesitate to play Itsmyluckyday, Flashback or Verrazano in the 15-1 range.
What would make me shy away from Itsmyluckyday and possibly others as we learn
more about their next targets is that they might not even run again before the
second (or third!) future pool. It’s important to ask yourself how dormancy
could affect prices. If individual interests run again, those who run well will
be shorter prices in future pools.
In this pool, Itsmyluckyday, Revolutionary and Shanghai
Bobby might not run until Pool 3 weekend or beyond. I.e., there’s a very good
chance Itsmyluckyday could be 12-1 in this pool but 15-1 in seven weeks.
Nothing will have changed except other horses showing capability (others will
drop off, too, of course).
That’s not as big a risk with Verrazano and Flashback since they’re both more
likely to run again, if not by Pool 2 then certainly by Pool 3. Verrazano, in
particular, has shown me enough talent that I’m interested in him if the 15-1
morning line holds up. Unfortunately, I think he’ll be more like 12-1.
| Horse |
Top Speed |
Top Class |
Track ML |
% |
Ed ML |
% |
My Line |
% |
||||||||
| Capo Bastone | 90 | 119 | 30 | 3.23% | 40 | 2.44% | 45 | 2.17% | ||||||||
| Code West |
99 |
117 |
50 |
1.96% |
60 |
1.64% |
100 |
0.99% |
||||||||
| Delhomme | 103 | 121 | 30 | 3.23% | 30 | 3.23% | 35 | 2.78% | ||||||||
| Den’s
Legacy |
94 |
119 |
30 |
3.23% |
45 |
2.17% |
60 |
1.64% |
||||||||
| Dynamic Sky | 96 | 119 | 30 | 3.23% | 30 | 3.23% | 50 | 1.96% | ||||||||
| Falling
Sky |
92 |
119 |
30 |
3.23% |
25 |
3.85% |
35 |
2.78% |
||||||||
| Flashback | 98 | 120 | 15 | 6.25% | 15 | 6.25% | 15 | 6.25% | ||||||||
| Frac
Daddy |
101 |
119 |
50 |
1.96% |
55 |
1.79% |
200 |
0.50% |
||||||||
| Goldencents | 101 | 120 | 20 | 4.76% | 25 | 3.85% | 40 | 2.44% | ||||||||
| He’s Had
Enough |
91 |
120 |
50 |
1.96% |
60 |
1.64% |
1,000 |
0.10% |
||||||||
| Itsmyluckyday | 111 | 123 | 15 | 6.25% | 14 | 6.67% | 12 | 7.69% | ||||||||
| Mylute |
94 |
119 |
30 |
3.23% |
35 |
2.78% |
45 |
2.17% |
||||||||
| Normandy Invasion | 104 | 122 | 20 | 4.76% | 22 | 4.35% | 25 | 3.85% | ||||||||
|
Overanalyze |
104 |
122 |
15 |
6.25% |
20 |
4.76% |
25 |
3.85% |
||||||||
| Oxbow | 94 | 121 | 20 | 4.76% | 25 | 3.85% | 40 | 2.44% | ||||||||
|
Revolutionary |
103 |
119 |
20 |
4.76% |
16 |
5.88% |
20 |
4.76% |
||||||||
| Shanghai Bobby | 103 | 121 | 12 | 7.69% | 15 | 6.25% | 20 | 4.76% | ||||||||
| Super
Ninety Nine |
103 |
119 |
20 |
4.76% |
22 |
4.35% |
25 |
3.85% |
||||||||
| Uncaptured | 106 | 121 | 20 | 4.76% | 30 | 3.23% | 40 | 2.44% | ||||||||
| Verrazano |
104 |
121 |
15 |
6.25% |
12 |
7.69% |
15 |
6.25% |
||||||||
| Violence | 98 | 121 | 12 | 7.69% | 16 | 5.88% | 25 | 3.85% | ||||||||
| Vyjack |
100 |
122 |
20 |
4.76% |
25 |
3.85% |
30 |
3.23% |
||||||||
| Will Take Charge | 93 | 120 | 30 | 3.23% | 40 | 2.44% | 100 | 0.99% | ||||||||
| FIELD |
1.8 |
35.71% |
2.5 |
28.57% |
3 |
28.57% |
||||||||||
| 37.90% | 120.61% | 100.30% |
Which brings us to the field. I can’t imagine the super horse it would take for
this option not to be favored in Pool 1, and we certainly don’t have that this
year, but I do think we have enough good horses that maybe the field drifts a
bit into the $7+ range for a $2 ticket, and I’m definitely interested at 3-1.
I’ve typically shied away from the field because the aforementioned
20-1 to 50-1-range horses offer the most value, but there is a good collection
of horses in the field that I suspect will be a part of Pools 2 and/or 3 next
month, which goes back into the concern I expressed for taking Itsmyluckyday now
versus later.
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