KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT
FEBRUARY 7, 2013
by James Scully
A pair of well-regarded maiden winners, Flashback and Revolutionary,
passed their first stakes test last weekend in dramatically different styles,
with Flashback leading all the way in the Robert B. Lewis and Revolutionary
rallying from last to take the Withers, and while neither performance proved a
whole lot in terms of the Kentucky Derby, it’s still early in the process and
both colts have a lot going for them.
Flashback rates as probably the top Derby contender for Hall of Famer Bob
Baffert, but Revolutionary comes from a much deeper Todd Pletcher barn that
includes Violence, Shanghai Bobby, Overanalyze, Capo
Bastone, Delhomme and Verrazano. Both conditioners have been
prime players in the Kentucky Derby chase for many years.
Pletcher leads all trainers in horses nominated to this year’s Triple Crown
with 29. He is seeking his second Derby win and third overall Triple Crown race
victory. Baffert ranks second with 23 Triple Crown nominees, and his resume
includes three Derby scores and a total of nine Triple Crown race wins.
Flashback and Revolutionary weren’t the only three-year-olds of note for
their trainers last weekend. Baffert sent Tiz the Truth to a 7 3/4-length
maiden tally at Santa Anita on Saturday, the colt’s first attempt at two turns.
The son of Tiznow, who just missed by a head to the promising Demonic in his
previous start, got away with an easy lead but finished full of run, completing
his final quarter-mile in a sparkling :23 2/5. All options are on the
table for Tiz the Truth’s next start, but he will likely ship to either Oaklawn
or Fair Grounds for his stakes debut given that Flashback is pointing to the
March 9 San Felipe at Santa Anita.
Pletcher’s Verrazano blitzed the track at Gulfstream on Saturday, rolling to
a 16 1/4-length decision in a one-turn mile allowance. By More Than Ready and
out of the successful Giant’s Causeway mare Enchanted Rock, Verrazano netted a
terrific 104 BRIS Speed rating and could make his highly-anticipated stakes
debut in the March 9 Tampa Bay Derby.
The Lewis and Withers were both part of the new “Road
to the Kentucky Derby” points system last Saturday along with the Sam F.
Davis, which went to the John Terranova-trained Falling Sky.
Bob Lewis
Flashback displayed push-button acceleration when capturing his career bow at
seven furlongs, rallying to win going away by 3 1/2 lengths at Hollywood Park in
early December, but he faced only three rivals with no early speed in the 1
1/16-mile Lewis. That forced the gray son of Tapit to change tactics and
Flashback easily led the way through slow fractions in :24, :48 3/5 and 1:12.
The ideal set-up makes his victory difficult to gauge, but Flashback did it
the right way, drawing away in the stretch to a convincing 6 1/4-length tally,
and it was good to see him earn a 102 BRIS Late Pace rating in his first attempt
at two turns. His BRIS Speed rating (95) was down from his debut (98) due to the
slow early fractions, but the stalker remains eligible to post much better
numbers with a legitimate pace scenario.
The Lewis didn’t answer any questions about his effectiveness at longer
distances, especially the 1 1/4-mile Derby, and his full sister Zazu was a
middle-distance specialist. But I wouldn’t put it past him because Flashback
still owns a suitable pedigree (his dam, the Mr. Greeley mare Rhumb Line, is out
of a mare by Derby winner Pleasant Colony and the third dam is by English Triple
Crown legend Nijinsky II) and a long stride. We will get a better line on the
talented colt when he steps up to face deeper competition as the likely favorite
in the San Felipe.
Den’s Legacy was good enough for second, his third consecutive placing
versus stakes rivals. Winner of the Generous on turf, the Medaglia d’Oro
colt then finished third in the CashCall Futurity and second in the January 5
Sham. He wasn’t a serious factor in those starts and rates as more of a plodding
type right now, but Den’s Legacy possesses a touch of class and can’t be
completely dismissed for Baffert.
Third-placer He’s Had Enough was disappointing given his commendable
nose second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, his first attempt on dirt. The gray
son of Tapit didn’t fire from off the pace when fifth in the CashCall Futurity,
which came on Hollywood’s Cushion Track, and it was reasonable to expect an
improved performance in his second start at Santa Anita. But he came up empty
after rating in a good spot behind Flashback during the early stages and will
need to show much more in the future for Doug O’Neill.
Withers
Revolutionary didn’t beat top-class competition or run particularly fast in
the Withers (96 BRIS Speed rating), but it was a remarkable effort given the bad
trip he experienced on Aqueduct’s inner track. The slow-starting colt got
shuffled back to last twice in the 1 1/16-mile race, initially while entering
the first turn and later as he was hemmed in approaching the stretch drive, and
was forced to wait behind horses until a seam opened in midstretch, quickly
accelerating into contention between rivals. Revolutionary then bullied his way
between runner-up Escapefromreality and third-placer Siete des Oros in the
shadow of the wire, winning by a neck as he galloped out strongly past the
finish line.
Jockey Javier Castellano gave his thoughts on the educational benefit of the
race.
“I could have gone around horses at the three-eighths pole because I had so
much horse, but I just wanted to teach him something, have him learn something,”
Castellano explained. “I knew he could get it done; in my mind it was just
waiting for the best opportunity to make a move. That’s exactly what I did, and
he responded so well today.”
Given the fact that he was just hitting his best stride at the wire,
Revolutionary impressed this observer. He’s a raw talent with a potentially high
ceiling, but the dark bay will need to get his head together over the next few
months.
Revolutionary placed in his first three starts at one turn, twice
experiencing less-than-favorable trips due to his own making, and finally broke
his maiden when trying two turns on December 28, producing an eye-catching 8
1/2-length decision at Aqueduct (good for a 103 BRIS Speed rating). He figured
to receive at least some speed from sire War Pass, who earned champion
two-year-old honors in 2007 following wire-to-wire wins in the Breeders’ Cup
Juvenile and Champagne, but Revolutionary is anything but quick during the early
stages of his races.
He inherited his run style, as well as the likelihood of plenty of staying
power, from his dam, Runup the Colors, a royally-bred daughter of A.P. Indy
whose signature win came in the Alabama Stakes at 1 1/4 miles. Runup the Colors
is a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 queen and Broodmare of the Year Prospectors
Delite, the dam of 2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft.
As opposed to Flashback, Revolutionary will receive only one more prep before
the Kentucky Derby, with the March 30 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds or the
April 6 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct as likely options. That gives Pletcher plenty
of time to work on gate/maturity issues and Revolutionary will need to keep
progressing from a mental standpoint because he has little room for error with
only 10 points to his credit.
Sam F. Davis
Falling Sky sprinted clear early and barely lasted late in the 1 1/16-mile
Sam F. Davis, winning by a neck over the fast-closing Dynamic Sky. The
winner had just been purchased for $425,000 at the OBS January sale and was
making his first start for Terranova.
Falling Sky equaled a career-best 92 BRIS Speed rating. A debut maiden winner
at Calder, Falling Sky stalked the pace in his first three career outings and
got away moderate early fractions in the Sam Davis. Overlooked at 12-1, the son
of Lion Heart received a heady ride from Luis Saez and has now won three of four
starts, but Falling Sky won’t receive a lot of respect off this upset win.
Dynamic Sky was wide on both turns and raced greenly while drifting in during
the stretch run, and his immaturity is a legitimate concern for trainer Mark
Casse. The son of Sky Mesa lacks strong Speed ratings, but he always gives an
honest effort and remains an interesting prospect, with plenty of stamina on his
female side (his dam won at 1 1/2 miles), if he can become more focused.
Top 10
- Normandy Invasion — He’s worked five times in South Florida this
year and the late-running son of Tapit will make his 2013 bow in the
February 23 Risen Star at Fair Grounds - Violence — Unbeaten colt captured the CashCall Futurity in
mid-December and returned to worktab on January 20, posting three works so
far in advance of the February 23 Fountain of Youth - Revolutionary — The talent is there but Withers winner will need
to get his act together; March 30 Louisiana Derby or April 6 Wood Memorial
could be next - Itsmyluckyday — He’s the fastest Derby contender so far this
year; will train up to the March 30 Florida Derby - Verrazano — Brilliant Gulfstream allowance winner will look to
transfer his form to two turns next out; the March 9 Tampa Bay Derby is an
option - Flashback — Unbeaten colt received a paid workout in the Lewis
and will now set his sights on the March 9 San Felipe - Oxbow — D. Wayne Lukas colt made a splash with 11 1/2-length
Lecomte win and will attempt to back it up in Risen Star - Overanalyze — Netted a 104 BRIS Speed rating for Remsen win and
appears to be training forwardly for 2013 bow in March 2 Gotham - Shanghai Bobby — Holy Bull runner-up performed admirably in
first defeat; adds serious speed to the equation - Goldencents — Sham and Delta Jackpot hero does his best running
on or close to the lead for O’Neill; will provide a better gauge on
Flashback in the San Felipe
Derby Future Pool 1
No points are available this weekend as Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future
Wager kicks off its three-day run on Friday, and Pletcher and Baffert are
responsible for 10 of the 23 individual interests.
The lowest individual morning-line price belongs to Shanghai Bobby and Violence, who are
both listed at 12-1. Last year, I’ll Have Another paid more in all three
Kentucky Derby Future pools — $60.20 in Pool 1, $46.20 in Pool 2 and $45.60 in
Pool 3 — than he did on Derby Day ($32.60).
The “all others” mutuel field will take the lion’s share of the betting
action in Pool 1, and could be bet down lower than the 9-5 morning line, but
it’s not for me. I will make at least three win plays on Sunday, and no more
than five horses, and my strategy is simple: value.
I want odds in the vicinity of 25-1 or more, with nothing lower than 20-1,
and that will likely eliminate a number of horses from consideration, including
Shanghai Bobby, Violence, Flashback (15-1 morning line), Itsmyluckyday (15-1),
Overanalyze (15-1) and Verrazano (15-1).
My short list contains:
Normandy Invasion (20-1)
Revolutionary (20-1)
Oxbow (20-1)
Delhomme (30-1)
Dynamic Sky (30-1)
Delhomme and Dynamic Sky fit the bill and I could wind up betting a smaller
amount on both horses at long odds. Oxbow could easily drift above his morning
line (his stock will jump if he wins the Risen Star), and I would love to see
the betting public ignore Normandy Invasion since he’s unraced this year and
Revolutionary due to his erratic nature.
I will bet all three (Normandy Invasion, Revolutionary and Oxbow) if the odds are right, but I will keep an eye on Flashback, Overanalyze
and Verrazano in case their price drifts upward, eliminating Dynamic Sky and Delhomme (in order) from consideration if necessary.