KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT
APRIL 4, 2013
by James Scully
Orb and Revolutionary were the big winners last weekend, taking
the Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby, respectively, but neither was overly
impressive: Orb completed the 1 1/8-mile distance two seconds slower than the
filly Dreaming of Julia earlier on the program and Revolutionary got away
tardily and didn’t have his mind on business the entire way.
Despite earning only a 97 BRIS Speed rating, compared to a 105 for
Revolutionary, Orb is the better Kentucky Derby prospect in my estimation. He
rated behind a glacial pace while wide in the Florida Derby and the developing
colt proved himself from a speed-figure perspective when registering a 102 in a
fast-paced Fountain of Youth two back. Orb will adapt to any scenario up front
and I expect him to continue to show more at Churchill Downs.
Revolutionary is good enough to be a major factor if he puts it all together
next time, but that’s difficult to envision. He ran in spots Saturday, shutting
it down quickly upon reaching the finish line and continued to display an
unwillingness to break that is most disturbing, especially considering the fact
that Revolutionary raced close to the pace a couple of times last year. His
unprofessional behavior does not bode well for a 20-horse field in the Kentucky
Derby.
The “Road
to the Kentucky” scoring system continues with a pair of major prep races
this Saturday, the Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby, both offering
100-40-20-10 points to the top four finishers, and we’ll find out how this
year’s “buzz” horse, unbeaten Verrazano, handles his first trip
at 1 1/8 miles. He will be a strong Kentucky Derby favorite if he rolls at
Aqueduct.
Florida Derby
I didn’t understand why Shanghai Bobby took back from the rail post on
a track that favors inside speed. The opening fractions — :24.74, :48.56,
1:12.89 and 1:37.79 — were ridiculously soft, with the half-mile and
three-quarters splits being accomplished about two seconds slower than both the
Gulfstream Oaks and the 1 3/16-mile Skip Away on the same program, and it was an
ideal set-up for a speedy colt with perceived distance limitations on the
stretch-out.
Instead, Shanghai Bobby dropped back to race close to Orb, who was done no
favors as well by the walking pace, and Itsmyluckyday was in the best spot among
the three main contenders, up close tracking the action as they crawled down the
backstretch.
Itsmyluckyday got first run as expected, surging to a one-length lead in
upper stretch, and it was a carbon copy of the move he offered in the Holy Bull,
overhauling the pacesetting Shanghai Bobby en route to a two-length decision.
But this time he had Orb coming after him.
Orb raced in fifth during the early stages and was caught four wide on the
far turn before accelerating to win going away by 2 3/4 lengths, generating a
103 BRIS Late Pace rating. This isn’t the same colt who received an 89 Speed
rating when opening his sophomore season with a sluggish victory over optional
claiming rivals in late January.
Shug McGaughey is the antithesis of a Bob Baffert, Todd Pletcher or D. Wayne
Lukas; he would love to win a Triple Crown race but could care less about
competing in the Kentucky Derby. His stable isn’t geared toward those events and
the Hall of Fame trainer was in no rush to push along Orb, who was only a maiden
winner entering this year.
Bred to relish the 1 1/4-mile distance, the son of Malibu Moon has evolved
into a top three-year-old over his last three starts, demonstrating an excellent
turn of foot that is built for longer distances. He is on my short list of win
contenders — it simply will be a matter of whether he’s good enough on Derby
Day.
Itsmyluckyday came up short after not racing in more than two months but
gained fitness for his next start in the Kentucky Derby. He earned a lower Speed
rating Saturday due to the slow pace, but I wouldn’t give up on him based upon
the setback. My biggest concern is his effectiveness at 1 1/4 miles.
Louisiana Derby
Revolutionary notched his third straight win, but the last two have been
anything but pretty. The Louisiana Derby set up well for a late runner, with
wicked opening splits in :22.84 and :46.34 (no one could’ve envisioned a much
faster pace at Fair Grounds than in the Florida Derby), and after starting last
and racing at the back of the 14-horse field, Revolutionary circled rivals five
wide on the far turn. It looked like he might win for fun entering the stretch,
but the dark bay colt began idling when he struck the front.
Jockey Javier Castellano got his mount’s attention when Mylute rallied
alongside in deep stretch, as Revolutionary surged again to win by a neck, but
it shouldn’t have been that close. After behaving poorly in his previous start,
a narrow win over suspect rivals in the February 2 Withers, Revolutionary
continued to lack focus on Saturday. The big difference was that Castellano
utilized the overland route instead of trying to keep him inside, which the
Pletcher-trained colt greatly resented last time.
There will be no saving ground in the Kentucky Derby; Revolutionary will
travel as wide as necessary while attempting to go last to first.
Even though he has performed like a plodder this year, Revolutionary
possesses an ideal mix of speed and stamina in his bloodlines. He is by the
ill-fated sire War Pass, who was ultra-quick and passed plenty of early zip to
his only two crops of runners, and Revolutionary’s classy female family is geared toward
longer distances.
His maturity level does not come close to matching his raw ability at this
stage in his career, so races like the Belmont Stakes and Travers may prove to
be a better fit down the road, but Revolutionary is too talented to completely
dismiss in the Kentucky Derby.
Take nothing away from Mylute — he turned in an extremely encouraging effort
for second and will bring improving form and legitimate BRIS numbers into the
Kentucky Derby for Tom Amoss. His pedigree offers little encouragement for 10
furlongs (out of a Valid Expectations mare), but Mylute figures to be overlooked
in the wagering and offers some appeal for the bottom of the exotics.
Revolutionary, Mylute and fourth-placer Golden Soul were 12th, 11th
and 14th, respectively after the opening half-mile and all made at least a minor
impact from far back. Departing was stalking the pace in fifth at that
point and was the only horse up close that was around at the finish. I thought
it was a sneaky-good third from the improving Al Stall runner, but Departing
probably won’t have the points (20) to make the Derby field.
U.A.E. Derby
The U.A.E. Derby was worth the same amount of points as the Florida Derby and
Louisiana Derby but deserves little discussion. Lines of Battle, one of
only two Triple Crown nominees in the 1 3/16-mile event on Tapeta,
overcame a slow pace to capture his first start of the year. After winning on
Polytrack last fall, the Aidan O’Brien trainee reaffirmed his affinity for
synthetic ovals but will likely return to turf racing after the Kentucky Derby.
Coolmore bought into Verrazano and Shanghai Bobby, so they clearly fashion
the prospect of owning a classic winner stateside, but it won’t come via the
Lines of Battle route — he’s been readied in the same fashion as 2012
last-place finisher Daddy Long Legs, who was totally unprepared for the Derby
experience.
Preview
Verrazano drew well in post 8 and I don’t see much appeal trying to beat him
— he looks more than capable of carrying his form forward going 1 1/8 miles in
the Wood.
After opening his career with dazzling wins over maiden and allowance rivals,
Verrazano recorded a comfortable score in the Tampa Bay Derby that served a
perfect building block. The Wood is the next step in the process and I expect
another measured victory before the ultimate litmus test at 1 1/4 miles.
Vyjack is a worthy adversary and Normandy Invasion will be
cranked for his best, but Elnaawi is the most intriguing upset contender.
A smart maiden winner two back, the son of Street Sense could’ve easily spit the
bit following a dreadful trip during the early stages of the Gotham, but he
recovered to post a fine third and should be set for an improved showing in his
second attempt against winners.
The Santa Anita Derby features a trio of contenders from the Baffert stable
— Flashback, Power Broker and Super Ninety Nine — along
with San Felipe hero Hear the Ghost.
Flashback got caught in a speed duel in the San Felipe before gamely holding for
second and receives a positive rider switch to Garrett Gomez on Saturday. Expect
him to be much more relaxed during the early stages, waiting to pounce from just
off the pace as both stablemate Super Ninety Nine and Goldencents seize the
early initiative.
Flashback is the pick and I will use late runners Hear the Ghost and Tiz a
Minister underneath him.
Top 10
- Verrazano — Easily passed his first test at two turns in the
Tampa Bay Derby but would like to see him settle better during the early
stages of the Wood Memorial - Orb — Florida Derby and Fountain of Youth wins weren’t flashy
but we haven’t seen the best of him yet either; love the progress he’s
making - Revolutionary — Louisiana Derby winner is a prime candidate for
a troubled trip but there is still plenty to like from a talent standpoint - Oxbow — Speedy colt gained valuable seasoning while narrowly
losing last two and looks like a natural for the 1 1/4-mile trip; dangerous - War Academy — Exciting prospect will have to finish first or
second in Arkansas Derby to qualify and believe he is more than capable - Flashback — First setback in San Felipe figures to benefit
lightly-raced colt; expect him to keep moving forward for Baffert - Hear the Ghost — Improving gelding packs a strong late punch but
would like to see him corner a little better in Santa Anita Derby - Itsmyluckyday — Florida Derby runner-up has registered top BRIS
Speed numbers in his first two starts this year - Vyjack — Consider him to be a liability at longer distances but
it’s easy to admire his gutsy nature; expect another fine showing in Wood - Normandy Invasion — Bubble could burst in the Wood and trainer
Chad Brown will leave nothing on table; we’ll see whether he’s good enough