KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT
MAY 3, 2013
Preview & Wagering Strategy
by James Scully
A lot of factors go into handicapping the Kentucky Derby. We can analyze all
the data available, watch race replays and workouts, but it’s seldom an easy
process and the one thing you can’t count on is racing luck.
With that being said, I am confident Orb will win Saturday’s 139th running of
the Run for the Roses.
I try to identify “key” prep races every year and believe the March 30
Florida Derby featured the two top contenders in the Kentucky Derby field, Orb
and Itsmyluckyday. Both appear set for a big race on Saturday.
Orb was far from precocious, needing four starts before breaking his maiden
in a slow time at Aqueduct in late November, but he blossomed over the winter
for trainer Shug McGaughey and will enter the Derby on the upswing, winning four
straight.
The bay colt likes to drop back and make one run, but his ability to adapt to
any pace scenario is a major attribute. He displayed those skills in his last
two starts, rallying from well behind in the Fountain of Youth before racing
closer to the action in the Florida Derby.
His BRIS Speed ratings dropped to a 97 in the Florida Derby due to slow early
fractions, but the 102 he earned for the Fountain of Youth stacks up well
against his Derby rivals. And Orb will be one of few in the 20-horse field with
a favorable pedigree for the 1 1/4-mile distance.
His training at Churchill Downs was the final deciding factor. By all
accounts, Orb has performed brilliantly under the Twin Spires, gliding over a
surface that he appears to be clearly relishing in the mornings. He’s full of
energy, is bred to handle mud and looks to be still improving. And Orb gets the
hottest jockey in America, Joel Rosario.
Orb will launch his move on the far turn and I expect him to finish up
strongest of all.
Itsmyluckyday is my second selection. He opened the year with a pair of
outstanding efforts, recording convincing wins in the Gulfstream Park Derby and
Holy Bull Stakes that produced huge Speed numbers (111 and 106), but trainer
Eddie Plesa elected to freshen his change for two months after the Holy Bull to
avoid squeezing the lemon dry before Derby Day.
The colt proved no match for Orb in the final furlong of the Florida Derby,
finishing about three lengths behind on the wire, but Itsmyluckyday was a short
horse that afternoon and gained needed fitness for the Derby. He has made a
strong impression since arriving at Churchill Downs, moving superbly over the
oval, and I like his tactical speed and post position (12). Itsmyluckyday should
enjoy a perfect trip.
I will include the following horses underneath in exotic wagers (exactas and
trifecta):
Overanalyze ended 2012 on a promising note, registering a 104 Speed rating
for winning the Remsen Stakes, but performed badly when making his 2013 debut in
the Gotham. He rebounded nicely in the April 13 Arkansas Derby, drawing away to
score by daylight, and I liked his recent fast work at Churchill Downs. He
appears to be coming to hand at the right time and could perform best among the
Todd Pletcher horses.
Revolutionary is also part of the five-horse Pletcher armada. The Louisiana
Derby hero owns a three-race win streak, has received rave reviews for both
workouts at Churchill Downs and picks up the services of Calvin Borel. The
inside post (No. 3) isn’t being regarded as a drawback considering that Borel
likes to ride along the rail, but the Withers Stakes two starts back sends mixed
signals – Revolutionary clearly resented being kept inside that afternoon. He
will be far back early and must avoid leaving himself too much to do in the
stretch.
Will Take Charge rates as a sleeper for D. Wayne Lukas. A two-time stakes
winner at Oaklawn this year, the well-bred colt recorded a 101 Speed rating last
time and should be rolling late Saturday.
Verrazano is a classy individual, capturing all four career starts, and I
liked his Wood Memorial win last out. But he’s had everything own way in both
route starts and has never raced behind horses. His effectiveness at 1 1/4 miles
is another legitimate concern, and I don’t think Saturday is going to be his
day, but it would be foolish to dismiss his chances outright.
Betting
Utilizing a $100 bankroll, I will recommend the following wagers on the
Kentucky Derby:
$20 Win & Place 16
$10 exacta box: 12 & 16
$5 exactas: 16 over 3,9,14,17
$1 trifecta: 16 over 3,9,12,14,17 over 3,9,12,14,17
Enjoy the Derby!