DeRosa's Blog

DEROSA'S BLOG

JUNE 7, 2013

Belmont Stakes pedigree: looking for that magic cross

by Ed DeRosa

When it comes to pedigree handicapping, I'm not a big fan

of saying a certain aspect of a horse's lineage means s/he can't do something on

the track. Rather, pedigree helps gives clues as to what a horse might most like

to do: run short, long, or somewhere in between and on which surface.

A horse who figures best going long on the turf can still win sprinting on the

dirt under certain circumstances, and vice versa and any other combination you

can think of.

That's not to say pedigree handicapping isn't important, because it absolutely

is, not only as an indicator of potential talent but also as one of the few

areas that not all handicappers utilize, which leads to better prices.

Pedigree is most used in maiden and turf races, and for horses stretching out.

The one thing those three categories have in common is that they involve horses

doing things they've never done before. That's why pedigree handicapping is such

a big part of handicapping races like the Kentucky and Epsom Derbys -- no horse in

those races has typically raced at 1 1/4 and 1 1/2 miles, respectively.

The Belmont Stakes is similar with its 1 1/2-mile distance, but for whatever

reason doesn't get quite the same attention as the Derby from a pedigree

perspective, and that's a shame because some trends have clearly developed over

the past 22 years since Hansel, by Woodman out of a Dancing Count mare, won the

1991 Belmont Stakes.

That marked the first time a Mr. Prospector-line stallion out of a Northern

Dancer-line mare would win the "Test of the Champion" but certainly not the last,

as it has happened an astonishing seven times since with Mr. Prospector-line

stallions accounting for another five wins on top of that and Northern

Dancer-line broodmares another three wins. The reverse cross of a Northern

Dancer-line sire over a Mr. Prospector-line mare accounted for last year's

winner.

The following chart below shows the sire and broodmare sire lines of all Belmont

Stakes winners going back to Summing in 1981. Mr. Prospector is present in 16 of

the past 31 winners with 15 of those coming on the sire side. Northern Dancer is

in 16 of the past 27 but more evenly distributed on top five times and with the

dam 11 times.

So who has the magic combo in this year's group (Belmont

2013 tab)? Palace Malice and Will Take Charge are both by Mr. Prospector-line

stallions out of Northern Dancer-line mares while Golden Soul and Midnight Taboo

have the reverse of that cross that last year's winner Union Rags has. The only

other Mr. Prospector-line stallion in the race is the filly Unlimited Budget,

whose dam is from the In Reality line. That's the same cross 2000 winner

Commendable had.

A.P. Indy is a popular sire line this year, but the only success he's had in the

race is winning it in 1992! Still, all three of his representatives are out of

either Northern Dancer- or Mr. Prospector-line mares.

Is all this to say that you need Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer influences

to win the Belmont Stakes? Of course not. There are plenty of pedigrees we could

look at with both those heavy hitters in the sire and dam lines and think this

horse has no business on dirt and/or around two turns, but the great thing about

the American classic races is that despite their distances they all require

brilliance. Plodders and deep closers rarely do well in any of the three races.

Classic breeding begets classic success.

Full disclosure: I happen to be director of marketing for

Brisnet.com, which specializes in providing a lot of this info to

handicappers.

Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances include pedigree information not

found in any other product, and the

Brisnet.com American Produce Records (APR Online) allows users to search by

entry and is great for handicapping maidens, turf races and stretch outs.