HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
JUNE 28, 2013
by Dick Powell
With the Triple Crown consuming most of our attention, we have not had time
to address other issues in the game. In no significant order, here goes.
What is everyone’s problem with Michelle Beadle? She
appeared on NBC and NBC Sports Network’s coverage of the Triple Crown races and
brought a different perspective to the races. Beadle never portrayed herself as
an expert, so when she would asked silly questions of trainers, jockeys, etc., it
gave the novice viewer an opportunity to learn something about the game.
I like her sassy, impertinent attitude that she brought to
the telecasts. Nationally televised races are not for designed for me so I don’t
expect the network to cater to my needs. They are trying to capture new viewers
and the ratings for the three races shows that they are doing a good job of it.
If we are to grow the game, it won’t happen by catering just to hardcore racing
fans and Beadle was their attempt to try to appeal to a younger audience.
One thing NBC did especially well was their post race
coverage. When the Preakness was in the books, Gary Stevens joined fellow Hall
of Fame rider Jerry Bailey on the set and the two of them discussed what just
happened in a way that you felt like you were eavesdropping on a private
conversation. It did not come off as staged but genuine as Stevens was still on the
high of upsetting the Preakness and who better to trade notes with than Jerry.
It was thoroughly enjoyable.
***
It’s nice that Horse of the Year Wise Dan is still racing at the age of six but it would be nice if he stepped it up a
notch and tried something different. Despite winning the Clark Handicap at
the end of 2011 and just missing in the 2012 Stephen Foster last June on
dirt, he has stayed on the turf at middle distances where he’s darn near
unbeatable.
I know the Arlington Million is coming up and that
would mean stretching out to 10 furlongs but I don’t see why he’s entered in
Saturday’s Firecracker Handicap at Churchill Downs going a mile on the
turf. He’ll have to concede significant weight to his rivals and, as I write
this, it’s not certain that he’ll start.
But wouldn’t the Whitney Handicap at nine furlongs at
Saratoga be a lot more fun? He could take advantage of the prevailing speed bias
there going two turns and rightfully defend his Horse of the Year title. A
six-year-old
gelding, I just wish we could see him against better horses; especially on the
dirt where he has excelled in the past.
***
One statistic I pay a lot of attention to is a jockey’s
record on the turf, which can be found in the jockey statistics within the
BRIS Ultimate Past Performances. Even though turf racing is less than half of the
races a jockey might have a mount on, it still is critically important to see if
a rider is in good form.
A few years back, Edgar Prado’s turf win percentage
dropped below 10 and it was a glimpse into the slump that he went into. This
past winter, Prado began to win again on the turf and his win percentage is now
16 percent and his 224 turf mounts show a flat-bet profit. What I think it shows
is that Prado began to ride much better but it took a while for the betting public
to catch up to the trend so his wins paid handsomely.
Luis Saez has held his own since moving his tack north to
New York, where he is winning at a 14 percent clip at the current Belmont Park
meeting. His win percentage on the turf is only 12 percent but his win
percentage in sprint races is a healthy 23 percent. His forte seems to be dirt
sprints and while not a bad turf rider, it still is not his strength. The high
number of turf sprints should help him since he is an aggressive rider away from
the gate but going two turns on it up at Saratoga might be a different
challenge.
David Cohen remains an enigma. He returned to New York
after his experiment riding first call for Ken McPeek failed. David Jacobson has
given him some business since returning but Junior Alvarado (37 percent) gets
first call these days.
For some reason, Cohen still only wins 2 percent with his
turf mounts. He has always been a low, single-digit turf rider but 2 percent is
as bad as it gets. Jacobson wins 13 percent with his turf starters so it’s not
because Cohen’s main guy doesn’t win on the turf. Until he gets his turf win
percentage up to a respectable level, he’s always going to be at a disadvantage.
With Ramon Dominguez retired, there are a number of solid
turf riders in New York. With Saratoga coming up and around six turf races per
day carded, knowing who succeeds on the lawn is a big edge.
Right now, Jose Lezcano is in the lead with 23 percent with
his turf rides. What is funny about this stat is that when you watch the races,
Lezcano probably gets his mounts into more trouble than any other top rider but
is strong and courageous enough to overcome it. He’s not afraid to save ground
and run the risk of getting stuck in traffic if it means he takes the short way
home. He should carry it into Saratoga with all the two-turn races run on the
grass.
Javier Castellano is winning 21 percent on the turf and
that is below his usual percentage, which was 26 percent last year at this time.
Joel Rosario wins 21 percent on the turf, which is not unusual since all the
major statistics show him above 20 percent.
Johnny Velazquez only wins 16 percent on the turf, which is
way below his 22 percent overall win percentage. When you factor out the turf
races, his win percentage on dirt has to be around 28 percent, so there’s a big
difference with how Johnny does on the dirt versus the turf.
Another rider with a similar profile to Velazquez is Alvarado. He wins 16 percent on the turf compared to 20 percent overall. His
turf mounts do show a flat-bet profit but they are clearly not his strength.