Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

JULY 5, 2013

by Dick Powell

Saratoga is coming and it's coming fast. Watching and wagering on the races

from Belmont will give you a context looking back when the horses show up here

but it doesn't guarantee much.

In today's new world of racing, it will not be unusual to see as many as six

turf races run on a given Saratoga raceday. With two wide courses to handle the

traffic, they will be used until they can't be used anymore.

Luckily, at least so far, we have had torrential rainstorms up here with the

months of May and June showing record amounts of rain. The good part is that the

courses and infield will be a lush green with the grass as thick as can be. The

bad part is what if the position of the jet stream stays where it is for the

months of July and August? Then, we could see a record amount of races taken off

the turf with the usual plethora of scratches.

One thing to notice, even now, when you are analyzing workouts on the

Oklahoma training track is that it is not as deep as it was years ago. It used

to be you could subtract two full seconds off a workout at Oklahoma to compare

it to the main track. Now, it's closer to one second. Trainers usually don't use

it to work fast anyway since those works generally take place on the main track,

but those 49 second half-mile breezes are around 48 seconds this year.

With all the turf racing we will see for the 40 days of Saratoga, one glaring

void that will be hard to fill is the absence of Ramon Dominguez. The last few

years, Dominguez was spectacular navigating around the two-turn configurations

and despite large fields, always seemed to find room when he needed it. A

January spill has forced him into retirement and New York racing just hasn't

been the same since then. It will be especially noticeable this Saratoga meet.

One handicapping factor it pays to pay attention to is the difference between

the middle-distance (a mile to a mile and a sixteenth) races on the two turf

courses at Belmont and how they are all run going two turns at Saratoga. The

mile on Belmont Widener's turf course is basically a one-turn mile but up here

it is two full turns.

We will see numerous examples of riders trailing very slow fractions on firm

turf for no apparent reason as they did not adjust to going around the first

turn. Horses that might be five lengths behind at Belmont could be 10 lengths

behind up here.

With Ken Ramsey going all in to try to de-throne Mike Repole as the leading

owner, I would have to assume that this helps Joel Rosario the most and Javier

Castellano some. Maker and Rosario had a great Gulfstream Park meeting and

business should be booming for the agents as there will be much competition to

wear the red cap with the "R" on it.

Horses that drew inside going 1 1/16 miles on the inner turf course at

Belmont are at a disadvantage from those that drew in the middle. When they show

up at Saratoga, give them some extra notice as their prior race is probably

better than it looks.

It used to be that many of the 2yos that we would see racing at Saratoga had

a start or two down at Belmont before shipping north. Now, only a handful of the

open company maiden special weight races fill. They even instituted a $100K

bonus for a 2yo that starts at Belmont and wins a stakes race at Saratoga and

while it worked some (the bonus is back this year), there are still too few 2yo

races at Belmont to give us enough races to analyze up here.

On a somewhat unrelated note, Discreet Cat was a brilliant first-out winner

at Saratoga before being purchased by Godolphin, who promptly shipped him to

Dubai that winter. While Discreet Cat handed the previously undefeated Invasor

his only career loss overseas, he did his best at Saratoga in one-turn races.

In my mind, he's been a bit of a disappointment at stud but Discreet Cat is

excelling at two things. First, his turf horses are terrific as he is siring 15

percent turf winners including Grade 2 stakes winner Discreet Marq, who won the

Sands Point (G2) at Belmont.

And as we saw last Saturday night during the deluge at Churchill Downs,

Discreet Cat's wet-track runners are as good as anyone. When the heavy rains

hit, the track condition for the Bashford Manor (G3) for 2yos going six furlongs

on the main track was downgraded to sloppy.

Debt Ceiling, stalking an insane first quarter run in 20.93 seconds, took

over leaving the turn to win for fun on as wet a track as you will ever see.

Discreet Cat is now siring an astounding 27 percent wet-track winners and that

is with 143 starters on wet tracks so the sample is big enough. His offspring

aren't showing his same brilliance but it's being made up for with versatility.

Next week, I will do the definitive study of turf sprints at Saratoga.

Whether you like them or not, it's impossible to get through the day without

having to play one of them and if all your rivals say they hate them, maybe it's

time to start loving them. Stay tuned.