HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
AUGUST 30, 2013
by Dick Powell
A total of 47,597 fans attended this year’s Travers Stakes (G1) and
more than $41 million was wagered on Saturday’s races at Saratoga nationwide. On
Sunday, 29,310 fans attended Del Mar for the Pacific Classic (G1) and $20
million was bet on the races nationwide. One thing that has been constant in
today’s world of declining business is that the major races days are as big as
ever.
Saratoga saw a continuation of the best weather ever.
Almost on cue, it started to rain Monday evening as the races were finishing and
by Wednesday, it was back to fast and firm. With the temporary rails taken down
late in the meet, speed has been very hard to beat with many turf races going
gate to wire.
For the Travers Stakes on Saturday, the weather could not
be any better with temperatures in the high 70s and little humidity. It
was almost Del Mar-like here in upstate New York and the crowds responded. The
14-race card contained eight turf races and none of us could ever remember a
Saratoga racecard with that many turf races. Thank God for good weather.
The stakes action kicked off in race nine with the Test
Stakes (G1) for three-year-old fillies going seven furlongs on the main track. It attracted
a field of eight with the betting favorite, California shipper Sweet Lulu, sent off at 9-5. The Jerry Hollendorfer shipper was undefeated in
three career starts on synthetic tracks and was making her dirt and stakes debut
all at once.
In California, she showed the ability to either relax early
or go to the front so Julien Leparoux wisely stalked the early pace of Baby J (J
Be K) through a half-mile in :44.95. When asked, she responded to take a
short lead and then battled to the wire to win the Test by a head over Wildcat
Lilly (D’wildcat), who was dismissed at 7-1 despite almost winning the
Prioress Stakes (G1) last out here. Second choice My Happy Face (Tiz Wonderful)
checked in a troubled-trip third.
In the Ballston Spa Stakes (G2), Laughing (Dansili) looked
to be in the perfect spot being the one to catch from the rail and, lo and
behold, she was. Jose Lezcano, who has been riding the turf here as well as
anyone, gunned to the front and never looked back after winning the Diana Stakes
(G1) last out with the same tactics.
The King’s Bishop (G1) was next and this one was nearly
impossible with 14 sophomores going seven furlongs. The race looked like a pace
meltdown was possible and sure enough, after a hotly contested first half-mile
in :44.60 , it happened. Turning for home, Mentor Cane (Mizzen Mast)
emerged with a clear lead and opened up four lengths with a furlong to go.
It was either going to be him or one of the talented
closers but few could have predicted that Capo Bastone (Street Boss) would be
the one to take full advantage and run the leader down and win going away at
odds of 28-1. Todd Pletcher had three runners in the King’s Bishop and this one
was given the least chance of winning but no matter — the race set up for him
and fell into his lap. Mentor Cane is the one to watch out of here with the big
sprint stakes coming up this fall.
The Travers attracted a field of nine with
three horses taking the majority of the betting money. Haskell (G1) winner Verrazzano (More Than Ready) was the favorite at 8-5 with Palace Malice (Curlin)
second in the wagering at 2.45-1 and Kentucky Derby winner Orb (Malibu Moon) the
third choice at 3.15-1.
Like most races, no matter what the distance, this one was
severely affected by the start when Palace Malice missed the break and was not
up on the pace as expected. Instead, Moreno (Ghostzapper) was loose on a steady
lead at 31-1 and led the field through modest fractions without much pace
pressure.
Jose Lezcano, filling in for the injured Joel Rosario, had
Orb down on the rail in fourth place for most of the trip and closer to the lead
than expected. Luis Saez wisely put Will Take Charge (Unbridled’s Song) right next to him and Orb
never had an opportunity to get off the rail.
Turning for home, the rail opened up enough for Orb to have
clear running and at one point he did have a short lead. But, Moreno would not
throw in the towel and kept battling back. He put Orb away in the final yards
but Will Take Charge came up on his outside and used his stride length to best
advantage and won the Travers by a nose. Orb won the photo for show over Palace
Malice, who raced extremely wide after his poor start and was probably tons the
best.
Even though Will Take Charge figured some off his second in
the Jim Dandy, his poor races in the Triple Crown races were hard to ignore.
Yes, some horses emerge in the second half of the season but they don’t usually
run seven times before waking up at the end of August. At 9.60-1, I thought
he was an underlay.
Moreno was a fascinating starter in this year’s Travers as
he has been a different horse since adding blinkers four starts back. Like his
sire, he is now maturing into a major racehorse and his terrific second showed
why a race over the track is critically important on the main track here.
With a better start, Palace Malice might have taken it all
and he bears watching the rest of the year. Fast and strong, he showed new
dimensions on Saturday that will only make him more dangerous down the road.
The dictionary is out of superlatives to describe Game On Dude (Awesome Again), who is still firing bullets at the age of six. Now with
earnings of more than $5.6 million, he just keeps getting better and better as he
uses his high cruising speed, coupled with his ability to relax, to run field
off their feet. His win in Sunday’s Pacific Classic was an absolute
tour-de-force and might have been his best race ever.
The issue Bob Baffert has is how to keep him in this form
nine weeks from now for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, which will be run on the
dirt at Santa Anita. He lost all chance last year when he broke poorly as the 13-10 favorite and it would be great to see him on the lead this year, daring a
top field of horses to catch him.