HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
OCTOBER 18, 2013
by Dick Powell
A few first-out winners caught our eye over the weekend and they will
certainly bear watching down the road. At Belmont on Sunday, Chad Brown unveiled
Bakken (Distorted Humor) in a maiden special weight event for three years old
and upward going six furlongs. Making his belated debut after showing promise in
the morning at Saratoga last year, he met a pretty solid field that included Tiz
for Tat (Tiz Wonderful), second in all three starts this year against this
maiden level, and Moonluck (Malibu Moon), a rallying second going six furlongs
in fast time first time out last month.
Owned by Mr. and Mrs. William Warren of Saint Liam fame, he was presumably
named after the great St. Louis Cardinals’ placekicker Jim Bakken as the Warrens
name their horses after St. Louis connections. He broke in at the start from
post 3 but quickly assumed command down the backstretch through a first
quarter-mile in :22.31.
Cruising around the far turn, Bakken kept pouring it on without much effort
and arrived at the top of the stretch in front by three lengths, running his
second quarter-mile in 22.63 seconds. With Javier Castellano asking him for some
run, he exploded to a five-length lead with a furlong to go and coasted home to
win by 6 1/2 lengths. Bakken ran his final quarter mile in 23.52 seconds with
his final time for six furlongs being a very quick 1:08.46.
Don’t know where he will show up next but Brown will have to go with mostly
stakes races as his next start since I can’t imagine any allowance races filling
with him entering. He could be a major factor this winter down at Gulfstream
Park for the sprint stakes for older horses.
Out at Santa Anita, all eyes have been on the two-year-old stakes horses as
they ready for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) but a first-time starter from Bob
Baffert might have more talent than any of them.
Tap It Rich (Tapit) had been working brilliantly in the morning for Baffert
and Andy Harrington’s National Turf Clocker Report used adjectives like “monster
drill” and “giant upside here” to describe his last workout at Santa Anita.
Still, he went off at a generous 32-10 since the rest of the two-year-olds he
was meeting in this mile contest were pretty solid.
He broke a bit slow and was back in eighth place after a quarter-mile was run
and Mike Smith kept him on the outside to keep clear sailing. He closed the gap
some to where he was third on the outside turning for home and then just kept on
going. He opened up three lengths with a furlong to go and finished up 4 1/4
lengths ahead at the finish. His final time for the mile was 1:36.78 seconds but
it was the visual impression that he gave when he caught the leaders and then
blew right by them that stuck with me.
Tap It Rich earned a BRIS Speed rating of 92 and when you consider the poor
start and wide trip, it was a huge effort. The Breeders’ Cup might be coming
back too quick for him but a campaign that finishes with the CashCall Futurity
(G1) might be in the cards.
The son of Tapit is out of a dam by the immortal Mr. Prospector that won her
only start going long and has produced the stakes winner Adriano (A.P. Indy)
that won the Lane’s End S. (G2) on the synthetic and the Kent S. (G3) on the
turf. His second dam, Golden Treat (Theatrical) won the Santa Anita Oaks (G1) so
it certainly looks like longer distances will be in his future.
***
While handicapping the amount of races that I do each week, there are some
statistics that grab your attention. For instance, Street Boss (Street Cry) is
off to a sensational start at stud with his turf runners. He is the
fourth-leading second-crop sire overall and his first time turf starters are
winning 23 percent and overall turf starters 20 percent.
These numbers will level off some but they show a natural affinity for turf
racing; something that he never tried as he was a stone-cold sprinter albeit on
synthetic tracks. His offspring just take to turf naturally and it makes some
sense genetically with his sire being by Machiavellian, a multiple Group 1
winner on turf and his second dam is by Blushing Groom, one of the great
two-year-olds in European racing history.
The other statistical area that keeps popping up is Johnny Velazquez’s turf
versus dirt numbers. Most of the top riders are pretty consistent between dirt
and turf; short and long. Not Johnny.
Overall, going into Thursday, Velazquez is winning 20 percent. However, when
you break that down between dirt and turf, the results are startling. On 165
rides on dirt going long, he wins 29 percent. On 258 rides on dirt going short,
he wins 25 percent. But on 445 rides on turf, he wins 13 percent. What makes
this statistic troubling is that his main man, Todd Pletcher, wins 19 percent
with his turf starters so it’s not because he rides for someone that only wins
on the dirt.
Usually, when you see a rider’s turf win percentage go down, it is the first
statistical sign of problems. But with Velazquez, his win percentage on dirt is
extraordinarily high so any decline is not supported by the fact that he is
riding better than ever on dirt.
What it means to me is that Velazquez wins only 13 percent with his turf
mounts, more than half his business comes on the turf and he shows a ROI of only
-0.96 with his turf mounts. It pays to think of him as “Johnny Dirt” and “Johnny
Turf.”