HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
DECEMBER 27, 2013
by Dick Powell
Japanese superstar Oefevre (Stay Gold) finished up his glorious career last
Saturday night with a sharp win in the Arima Kinen at Nakayama Racecourse. In
2011, he culminated a spectacular season with a win in this race after capturing
the Japanese Triple Crown.
The Japanese racing industry has an obsession on winning the world’s greatest
races and Oefevre spent the last two seasons focused on winning the Prix de
L’Arc de Triomphe in Paris.
Last year, he surged to the lead in the deep stretch at Longchamp and looked
like a sure winner. Suddenly, in the shadow of the wire, he veered right,
towards the rail, losing all momentum and was passed by Solemia, who Oefevre had
already gone by.
It was a cruel result as the hope of Japanese racing and breeding looked like
he finally bagged the big one. Still not deterred, Oefevre’s owners brought him
back this year at age five with his whole season geared towards another run at
the Arc. This year, he won the Prix Foy at Longchamp again in his Arc prep but
ran into super filly Treve and wound up second again in the main event.
This year’s Arima Kinen was Oefevre’s swan song and he delivered with a
dominating victory that was never in doubt. He blew by the field on the outside
and the race was over when he straightened away in the short stretch as the
Nakayama crowd of 116,000 celebrated Deep Impact style, throwing their programs
in the air as he went by.
Oefevre retires as the world’s richest racehorse with more than $19 million
in earnings and will be well received by the Japanese breeding industry. His
full brother, Dream Journey, also won the Arima Kinen and with the exception of
his immortal grand sire Sunday Silence, his pedigree is entirely Japanese.
The Aqueduct inner dirt track has been open for only two weeks but for those
of us handicapping it every day, it seems a lot longer. Leading trainer David
Jacobson has a bunch of new horses in his stable so he should have fresh troops
available throughout the meet and has had multiple entrants in many races.
At one point, apprentice rider Emmanuel Esquivel looked to be riding first
call for the Jacobson barn but that trend stopped recently as David Cohen has
re-asserted himself as the top dog in the Jacobson barn. Cornelio Velasquez
continues to get live mounts from him.
Velasquez rides first call for Linda Rice so he won’t have too many
opportunities to ride for Jacobson but when he does, watch out. Nobody on the
NYRA circuit gets their horses away from the gate better than Velasquez.
Junior Alvarado’s broken ankle will keep him out for three months and will
open up some opportunities for the other riders. The Ortiz brothers continue to
ride well and they should thrive this winter. Irad looks like he will ride first
call for the Todd Pletcher runners that have been left behind and Jose has made
one of the smoothest transitions from apprentice to journeyman ever seen.
With inner dirt track racing being a wide dichotomy of sprint and two-turn
races, jockey versatility is very important. Most of the better riders do well
going short and long, but some have significant differences.
Irad Ortiz Jr. wins 18 percent going long but only 14 percent going short.
Junior Alvarado was similar in that he did better going long than short. David
Cohen is just the opposite winning only 13 percent going long but 19 percent
going short. Cornelio Velasquez is the model of consistency, winning 19 percent
going long and the same rate going short, but shows a flat-bet profit with his
sprint starters. Manny Franco looks like he’s going to be the leading apprentice
rider.
All these stats are found in the BRIS Ultimate Past Performances and play a
major role in analyzing these races. Very quickly, sample sizes grow since there
are two main distances run and there is no turf racing to dilute the racing on
the main track so the statistics become significant.
Next week, we’ll take a look at the opening week of Santa Anita and how the
major stakes races were run. Gulfstream Park and Fair Grounds’ meets will be
heating up once we hit the New Year and Oaklawn Park will be open in
mid-January. By then, winter simulcasting will be in full bloom with lots of
wagering opportunities available and no matter where you live, there should be a
race to bet on regardless of the weather.