DEROSA’S BLOG
FEBRUARY 28, 2014
Future wagers offer chance to drink Kool Aid
by Ed DeRosa
There is no shortage of opinions regarding a horse’s
performance following races on the
TwinSpires.com
Kentucky Derby
Championship Series, and the beauty of the
Kentucky Derby
Future Wager is that it allows bettors to put their money where their mouths
are (assuming the price is right).
Pool 3 is now open and closes Saturday before the Gotham
Stakes at Aqueduct. For FREE
Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs with comments for the Gotham,
click here; for FREE future wager PPs,
click here.
The most popular flavors of Kool Aid following last
weekend’s races were Top Billing in a loss (third in the Fountain of Youth
behind Wildcat Red and General a Rod) and Intense Holiday in a Risen Star Stakes
win. The former is 8-1 on the morning-line while the latter is 15-1. I
don’t want either at those prices, and I have Top Billing shorter on my fair
odds line as well, but Intense Holiday is more likely to be a bet come Saturday
afternoon.
In this week’s
Bullet Train Stud Kentucky Derby Platform, Sean Feld shares my distaste for
the Top Billing Kool Aid.
Others in Pool 3 who ran last weekend are Wildcat Red and
General a Rod from the aforementioned Fountain of Youth, Constitution from a
Gulfstream allowance race, and Albano and Vicar’s In Trouble — second and third,
respectively — in the aforementioned Risen Star.
There is a lot of early speed among the 23 individual
betting interests, and while I definitely think it’s too early to get hung up on
handicapping the pace scenario of this year’s Derby, I think the combination of
potential pace and pedigree of Albano, Uncle Sigh, Vicar’s In Trouble and
Wildcat Red is enough to be bearish on their chances as four of the 14
individual entries with at least five
Quirin Speed Points.
The three “E” types I like best are Bayern, Kristo and Samraat, though my concern with Samraat is he faces a lot of speed in the Gotham
and picks up seven pounds. More on that race Friday, but for future wagering
purposes, it might be better to sit tight on him. The time for Kristo was
probably last time at 76.6-1, but at least you know he’s training forwardly,
has a few points and is pointing for a race soon. Bayern turned a lot of heads
when crushing stablemate Tap It Rich last out but needs points, and the waters
are getting deep.
Overall, it’s hard to judge too much based on the morning-line because the field being 6-1 on it when I expect it to be no more than
4-1 in actual betting skews individual contenders low.
The Southwest exacta of Tapiture (15-1 morning-line) and
Strong Mandate (20-1 morning-line) look interesting, as I’d be inclined to
bet either of them at 20-1. I know some wouldn’t touch two-year-old champion
male Shared Belief at any price, as in addition to the soundness concerns he has
no points, but I can’t ignore that he’s the fastest horse of his generation, and
I’d take a flyer on him in that 20-1 ballpark.
Honor Code is
number one right now as far as
polls go (with Shared Belief number two), but that’s based on what happened
last year, and time is running out to show me something this year. At least
Honor Code is back working, though, and I’d take a chance on him at 15-1 or
better.
All that might be moot, though, as I expect my biggest bet
to be on the field if the odds are 4-1 or better. I bet the field in Pool 2
when its odds were 9-5, but I wasn’t alone in my thinking there, as it went
down to 3-2 by the time the pool closed. I also bet Bobby’s Kitten and Rise
Up, and neither made the current pool, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see
Bobby’s Kitten back for the final pool March 27-29 if he wins this weekend at
Gulfstream.
Below is my fair odds line for Pool 3 as well as a summary of my action to
date:
For those looking for even more bang for their future wager
buck, the TwinSpires.com
1-million points Future Wager fantasy draft gives you action throughout the
170-point races for $15 by betting $7, $5 and $3 on one horse in each of three
groups (no field). Scoring is the same as the TwinSpires.com Kentucky Derby
Championship Series with the Derby itself worth 5x points.