HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
FEBRUARY 7, 2014
by Dick Powell
The Donn Handicap has become America’s first, big Grade 1 stakes race for
older horses going two turns and this year’s edition should only add to its
stature. Any time you get the champion three-year-old male to make his seasonal
debut, it’s a big deal and Will Take Charge (Unbridled’s Song) has shipped in
from his Oaklawn Park base for the $500,000 race going nine furlongs on the main
track at Gulfstream Park.
Last year, after the Belmont Stakes (G1), what would be the odds that Will
Take Charge would go on to be crowned champion three-year-old male? I say at
least 1,000-to-1 after he was crushed in all three legs of the Triple Crown.
But then a funny thing happened. Wayne Lukas removed the blinkers and Will
Take Charge went on a tear of five straight strong races that culminated with
his near miss in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and win in the Clark Handicap (G1).
Now, he makes his 2014 debut in the Donn against limited competition. It will be
helpful to kick off the new Jockey Club Tour on Fox with a marquee horse
although Sunday’s races, even with the NFL season being over, will be broadcast
on Fox Sports 1 network.
There has been some criticism of the series being comprised of a bunch of
unconnected races. What I don’t understand is when I check my channel guide for
Sunday afternoon from 5 to 6:30 p.m. (ET), my local Fox affiliate has three,
half-hour shows listed for that time period: paid programming from 5 to 5:30,
Shaun T’s Focus T25 and a re-run of the Simpsons. Not sure why Shaun T was able
to buy time on national TV on a Sunday afternoon following the football season
but horse racing was not?
The broadcast will lead off with Groupie Doll’s (Bowman’s Band) final race
before going to the breeding shed, the Hurricane Bertie Stakes (G3), and will
also include the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap (G1). Got to give Gulfstream Park
for showing this kind of support. If you are on DirecTv, the races can be seen
on channel 219.
I was not the biggest fan of “Luck” when it was on HBO a few years ago. As
each episode went on, I found more to criticize and I guess I was not alone as
the number of viewers did not increase after its premiere.
But there is some, indefinable quality that makes the new “Horseplayers” on
the Esquire Channel on Tuesday nights at 10 p.m. enjoyable. I have watched all
three episodes and while I could pick it apart, I still like watching it and
look forward to it each week.
I know it’s a “reality TV” show but the horseplayers they have picked are
interesting enough to keep watching. Yes, some of it is contrived but what seems
to be working is each horseplayer’s journey to their goal of qualifying, and
winning, the big-money handicapping tournaments that are held each year. There
is no correct way of accomplishing it and it looks like each episode will take
us closer to the grand finale, the National Handicapping Challenge (NHC).
I know about half the horseplayers in it so maybe that helps. Christian
Hellmers and I go way back to when he was representing Betfair in North America.
He is being typecast as the “new age” handicapper/sorcerer but make no mistake
about, he is as sharp as anyone you will find in the betting business.
Yes, he provides a counter to the typical racetracker but do not
underestimate his statistical and analytical skills. He is a serious
horseplayer; just a bit different and a perfect foil for the others on the show.
We were spoiled for a while with Black Caviar and Frankel being on the scene
for a few years. Nobody has stepped up to fill their place as the “world’s
greatest horse” but there is a newcomer to the stage that could prove worthy.
Two years ago, Certify (Elusive Quality) was the champion two-year-old filly
in Europe with four wins in four starts including the Group 1 Fillies Mile.
Instead of having a glorious three-year-old season, she was caught up in the
Godolphin steroid scandal when Mahmood al Zarooni was banned from racing for
eight years and the horses he was training were not allowed to race for six
months while the scandal was being investigated.
Certify did not race in 2013 and it wasn’t until last week’s Cape Verdi
Stakes (UAE-G2) that she was able to return to the races. And, what a return it
was.
In the one-mile turf event at Meydan, the field crawled through the first 400
meters (about a quarter mile) in 27.30 seconds. Certify sat back in fifth so her
first 400 meters was run in :27.85. To say they picked the pace up would be an
understatement.
The undefeated filly ran her second 400 meters in :22.85 and her third 400
meters around the wide turn at Meydan was :22.54. At this point, she was on the
far outside and without any urging from Mickael Barzalona, she ran her final 400
meters in 22.85 seconds meaning that her last 1200 meters (just short of six
furlongs) was run in the incredible time of 1:08.24!
Considering the 489-day layoff and the trip where she ran wide for most of
the trip, it was a gigantic performance for the filly that is a half-sister to
Cry and Catch Me, winner of the Oak Leaf Stakes (G1) going two turns at two at
Santa Anita.
Now trained by Charlie Appleby, who took over for Al Zarooni last year, the
filly’s ultimate goal will be against the boys in the $5 million Dubai Duty Free
Stakes (UAE-G1) going nine furlongs on the undercard of the Dubai World Cup on
March 29.