KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT
FEBRUARY 20, 2014
by James Scully
The top two finishers from the Southwest at Oaklawn Park, Tapiture and Strong
The Early Season portion of the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” has come to an
Both races drew large fields with potential serious Kentucky Derby
I’ll review last week’s races and take a look at some stats surrounding
Southwest
I came away impressed with both Tapiture and Strong Mandate in the Southwest.
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Tapiture broke well from post No. 1 and secured forward positioning into the
first turn of the 1 1/16-mile Southwest. The pace was surprisingly moderate (:23
2/5, :47 4/5 and 1:13) and despite being to the inside of rivals, Tapiture was
kept at least a couple paths off the rail by jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. while
traveling comfortably down the backstretch
After being prominent for the opening five-eighths of a mile, the Steve
Asmussen-trained colt began to edge away rounding the far turn and
entered the stretch drive full of run, accelerating to an overwhelming lead
while being pointed toward the middle of the track by Santana.
Tapiture was never threatened while drifting out late, scoring easily by 4
1/4 lengths. I took little stock in him failing to maintain a straight line in
the stretch; Santana appeared to be intentionally avoiding the inside paths and
wasn’t alone as the rest of the jockeys in the Southwest acted more than willing
to lose ground rather than race close to the rail.
A son of Tapit, Tapiture was making his first start since convincingly
breaking his maiden over stakes rivals, posting a 4 1/4-length decision in the
Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs last November. Runner-up to
subsequent Grade 1 winner Strong Mandate in his career bow at Saratoga, Tapiture
went on to finish a close third in the Grade 3 Iroquois at Churchill Downs in
his second career start.
His BRIS Speed ratings have increased nicely in each of his last three
outings, generating a career-best 99 in the Southwest.
Tapiture appears to have a lot going for him, including an affinity for
Churchill Downs, and I won’t be surprised to see him prove highly effective at
distances up to 1 1/8 miles. But 10 furlongs looks like a significant challenge
given his female family. His dam, Free Spin, is by Olympio, who is known as more
of a speed influence.
Free Spin never raced past 6 1/2 furlongs in six career starts and Tapiture
is a full brother to a pair of stakes winners, Retap and Remit. The former
posted all three of his career wins in sprints and the latter was best at
distances up to a mile.
Unlike Tapiture, Strong Mandate possesses a mouth-watering pedigree for
classic distances. He’s by two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Tiznow and is
out of the multiple Grade 1-winning mare Clear Mandate, a daughter of Deputy
Minister who captured a Grade 1 event at 1 1/4 miles by five lengths.
In his first start since a third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Strong
Mandate failed to break alertly and was forced to check entering the first turn
while at least five or six paths off the rail. His extreme journey continued as
he raced ridiculously wide the rest of the way in the Southwest.
After being forced farther out in traffic leaving the first turn, Strong
Mandate suddenly took off for the lead with a premature move down the
backstretch before being taking in hand by jockey Joel Rosario. He never had the
opportunity to settle into a comfortable rhythm.
Even though he came under a strong ride midway on the far turn, Strong
Mandate kept trying hard all the way to the finish. He entered the stretch drive
a clear second and wound up six lengths ahead of third-placer Ride on Curlin
despite tiring noticeably in the end.
Strong Mandate wasn’t geared up to beat the winner regardless of trips —
Tapiture was ready to run a big one — but lost little in defeat. A hard race
isn’t going to hurt him and trainer D. Wayne Lukas had to view the Southwest as
an encouraging effort to build upon.
El Camino Real Derby
Points were up for grabs in Saturday’s El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate
Fields and give the winning Tamarando credit — the pace was slow and Dance With
Fate looked poised to succeed after striking the front in upper stretch. The
confirmed late runner overcame all obstacles to post his third career stakes
win.
A substitute for unbeaten California Derby winner Exit Stage Left, who was
forced out of a planned start due to injury, the Jerry Hollendorfer-trained
Tamarando lagged at the back of the eight-horse field during the opening six
furlongs of the 1 1/8-mile event on Tapeta.
He launched his move on the far turn and caught Dance With Fate in deep
stretch, posting a half-length victory.
Winner of the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity on Polytrack and the Real Quiet on
Hollywood’s Cushion Track, Tamarando likes all-weather tracks. But the colt is
versatile enough to handle dirt, placing in all three stakes attempts at Santa
Anita.
Tamarando registered only a 90 BRIS Speed rating in the El Camino Real Derby
and probably doesn’t want any part of better competition on dirt. But the
California-bred son of Bertrando can earn a lot of money competing against
state-bred rivals this year — the hard-charging closer has finished in the
money in all nine starts since making his career debut.
Dance With Fate, an excellent turf allowance winner at Santa Anita in his
2014 bow, recorded a solid effort finishing a clear second and the Florida-bred
colt rates as one of the top three-year-old turf prospects for trainer Peter Eurton.
Bayern
Bob Baffert has been in this position before. Two years ago, he unveiled
Bodemeister in January and the unraced two-year-old went on to nearly steal the
“Run for the Roses,” finishing a game second to I’ll Have Another.
The Hall of Fame conditioner has another talented prospect to get excited
about this year in Bayern.
A debut winner on January 4, taking a seven-furlong maiden special weight by
3 1/4 lengths, Bayern enhanced his reputation last Thursday (February 13) with a
captivating 15-length triumph in his two-turn bow.
Jockey Gary Stevens guided the dark bay colt to the lead at the break and
Bayern received token pressure along the backstretch before reasserting command
entering the far turn. He gradually widened the advantage before being asked for
run entering the stretch drive, exploding away from the competition before being
taken in hand late.
Bayern received an excellent 99 BRIS Speed rating.
Offlee Wild captured the Grade 1 Suburban at 1 1/4 miles and is responsible
for 2009 champion two-year-old filly She Be Wild, but he’s proven unexceptional at stud and offers little appeal as a Kentucky Derby sire. However, Bayern was
the top-selling offspring from his sire last year, commanding $320,000 as
a two-year-old in training, and could receive a sturdy dose of stamina from
broodmare sire Thunder Gulch, winner of the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes in
1995.
Bayern had everything his own way and must prove
himself against quality competition with other legitimate speed present, but I
thought he delivered a sensational performance and am excited to see him run
next time.
Derby trending
Going back to 1990 (last 24 years), let’s take a look at Kentucky Derby
winners based upon three categories:
1) Last 2 BRIS Speed ratings (most recent/second-to-last)
2) Location of the final two prep races
3) Finishing position in those starts
| Derby winner | Last 2 Speed | Last 2 starts | Fin. Position | |||
| Orb | 97/102 | Fla./Fla. | 1st/1st | |||
| I’ll Have Another | 98/102 | Cal./Cal. | 1st/1st | |||
| Animal Kingdom | 97/96 | Ky./Fla. | 1st/2nd | |||
| Super Saver | 99/99 | Ark./Fla. | 2nd/3rd | |||
| Mine That Bird | 88/87 | N.M../N.M.. | 4th/2nd | |||
| Big Brown | 110/102 | Fla./Fla. | 1st/1st | |||
| Street Sense | 98/105 | Ky./Fla. | 2nd/1st | |||
| Barbaro | 104/104 | Fla./Fla. | 1st/1st | |||
| Giacomo | 100/96 | Cal./Cal. | 4th/2nd | |||
| Smarty Jones | 105/109 | Ark./Ark. | 1st/1st | |||
| Funny Cide | 111/103 | N.Y./La. | 2nd/3rd | |||
| War Emblem | 109/105 | Ill./Ill. | 1st/1st | |||
| Monarchos | 108/108 | N.Y./Fla. | 2nd/1st | |||
| Fusaichi Pegasus | 110/103 | N.Y./Cal. | 1st/1st | |||
| Charismatic | 104/94 | Ky./Cal. | 1st/4th | |||
| Real Quiet | 107/103 | Cal./Cal. | 2nd/2nd | |||
| Silver Charm | 102/98 | Cal./Cal. | 2nd/2nd | |||
| Grindstone | 101/102 | Ark./La. | 2nd/1st | |||
| Thunder Gulch | 98/103 | Ky./Fla. | 4th/1st | |||
| Go for Gin | 104/105 | N.Y./Fla. | 2nd/4th | |||
| Sea Hero | 96/85 | Ky./Fla. | 4th/3rd | |||
| Lil E. Tee | 102/96 | Ark./Ky. | 2nd/1st | |||
| Strike the Gold | 109/100 | Ky./Fla. | 1st/2nd | |||
| Unbridled | 108/101 | Ky./Fla. | 3rd/1st |
BRIS Speed ratings for Kentucky Derby winners aren’t what they used to be.
With the exception of Sea Hero, every Derby winner earned a triple-digit Speed
rating in their final two prep races from 1990-2008, most in the 105-110 range.
The three-year stretch of Mine That Bird-Super Saver-Animal Kingdom
eliminated the triple-digit Speed figure barometer for Derby winners. I’ll Have
Another and Orb restored some semblance, each registering a 102 Speed rating in
the penultimate prep, but the last-race numbers (98 and 97) are much lower than
many of their predecessors.
Speed ratings are declining, with numbers in the upper 90s/low 100s becoming
the new standard. No horse has earned a triple-digit rating in a 2014 Derby
scoring race so far.
The top 5 Speed ratings for prep race winners in 2014:
1) Samraat — 99 (Withers)
2) Tapiture — 99 (Southwest)
3) Cairo Prince — 98 (Holy Bull)
4) Candy Boy — 97 (Robert Lewis)
5) Midnight Hawk — 95 (Sham)
5) Noble Moon — 95 (Jerome)
When it comes to regions, Florida dominates the list since 2006, with six of
eight Derby winners prepping at Gulfstream Park. I’ll Have Another came from
California two years ago and the state produced four Derby winners in a row from
1997-2000.
Arkansas and Kentucky are both responsible for two winners in the last 10
years, and Kentucky’s influence has definitely waned in recent years. From
1990-95, Kentucky produced five Derby winners and the Blue Grass at Keeneland
remains the all-time leading prep race with 23 alumni.
But the installation of Polytrack in 2006 reduced the appeal of the Blue
Grass for major Derby contenders. Street Sense is the only Derby winner to race
at Keeneland since then, with Animal Kingdom using the Spiral at Turfway as his
final prep. Due to the Polytrack, the Blue Grass became more popular for horses
with some turf prowess.
Since 1990, states producing a Derby winner (last two starts):
1) Florida — 12
2) Kentucky — 8
3) California — 6
4) Arkansas — 4
4) New York — 4
6) Louisiana — 2
7)) Illinois — 1
7) New Mexico — 1
Recording a top-two finish in the final prep race is a common trait but there
are exceptions, with Mine That Bird, Giacomo, Thunder Gulch and Sea Hero all
turning in relative clunkers with fourth-place efforts. However, don’t expect
the Derby winner to be third or worse in the last two starts; Sea Hero is the
only one in modern times to produce such unfavorable results beforehand.
Ten of the last 24 Derby winners captured their final prep race and nine were
second. In the penultimate prep race, 13 Derby winners posted a victory and six
finished second.
No Derby winner since Iron Liege (1957) has finished worse than fourth in the
final prep.
Kentucky Derby Top 10
- Top Billing — Powerful closer drew tough post (12) for stakes
debut in Fountain of Youth; one of two top contenders for 2013 Derby winner
McGaughey. - Cairo Prince — Holy Bull romper will await the Florida Derby for
McLaughlin. - Honor Code — McGaughey trainee is back working, targeting the
3/15 Rebel. - Commissioner — A.P. Indy colt returned from lengthy layoff to defeat salty allowance field;
will try stakes company in Fountain of Youth. - Bayern — Unbeaten colt has yet to be tested and could be any
kind for Baffert. - Strong Mandate — Grade 1 winner returned with a solid second in
Southwest; Lukas will tighten the screws moving forward. - Candy Boy — Recorded an excellent win in
Lewis; Sadler charge heading to Santa Anita Derby next. - Tapiture — Asmussen trainee captured Southwest by open lengths
and is a Churchill Downs stakes winner. - Samraat — New York-bred colt exits sharp victory
in Withers; Violette will likely point him toward Wood Memorial. - Shared Belief — Two-year-old champ is back in
training for Hollendorfer; waiting for gelding’s first breeze.