DeRosa's Blog

DEROSA'S BLOG

MARCH 4, 2014

Favorites help keep 255 alive to $1 million

by Ed DeRosa

If going into the TwinSpires.com

$1 million Road To the Kentucky Derby Showdowngame I had told you that the

favorite would hit the board in each of the first six races, what percentage of

starting players would you expect to be alive?

88.9 percent of the pool eliminated from the grand prize sounds like a lot,

but it's about what you'd expect with the favorite "advancing" in each leg. Put

another way, 11 percent of the starting players remain, which works out to about

69.27 percent of all players advancing each race. If you figure a favorite

typically takes 40-50 percent of the show pool then that's 19-29 percent divided

among the other two horses on the board, then we're actually right where you'd

expect to be.

If each of the 255

players remaining has a 69.27 percent chance of advancing each race, then

there is an 88.5 percent chance that at least one player will be alive for the

$1 million following the Lexington Stakes on April 19 at Keeneland and a 77.6

percent chance that at least one person will win the grand prize two weeks later

following the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, but drop the percentage down to

60 percent and there's only a 28.3 percent chance that one player will be alive

for the $1 million and a 18.1 percent chance that someone will win it.

If the trend continues exactly, then there will be two players alive for the

$1 million following the Lexington

Speaking of two people alive, that is how many remain in the @twinspires #tsSHOWdown last

longest competition for $500, as both

@fakemaven and @JBOswald68 rode

Uncle Sigh to week four -- a pick that continued the trend of the surviving pair

shying away from favorites, as @fakemaven has

used only one favorite (Enterprising in the El Camino Real Derby) among his six

selections, and @JBOswald68 has

used just two (the aforementioned  Enterprising and Strong Mandate in the

Southwest Stakes). Uncle Sigh also marks the third time the pair agreed on their

picks, as in addition to Enterprising and Uncle Sigh they both used Risen Star

Stakes winner Intense Holiday last week.

Both races in week four of SHOWdown are

Saturday: the Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs and the San Felipe Stakes at

Santa Anita Park. As always, we'll have FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate Past

Performances with comments.

Even if you're not one of the 255

players alive for the $1 million, there's 2,146 players with at least one

correct and thus live to a share in the $10,000 Kentucky Derby consolation pool.

Of those players, 415

players have five correct and are very much in the hunt for the Derby and

Oaks tickets and Derby merchandise prizes available to those with the most

correct going into the Derby itself.