DEROSA’S BLOG
MARCH 4, 2014
Favorites help keep 255 alive to $1 million
by Ed DeRosa
If going into the TwinSpires.com
$1 million Road To the Kentucky Derby Showdowngame I had told you that the
favorite would hit the board in each of the first six races, what percentage of
starting players would you expect to be alive?
88.9 percent of the pool eliminated from the grand prize sounds like a lot,
but it’s about what you’d expect with the favorite “advancing” in each leg. Put
another way, 11 percent of the starting players remain, which works out to about
69.27 percent of all players advancing each race. If you figure a favorite
typically takes 40-50 percent of the show pool then that’s 19-29 percent divided
among the other two horses on the board, then we’re actually right where you’d
expect to be.
If each of the 255
players remaining has a 69.27 percent chance of advancing each race, then
there is an 88.5 percent chance that at least one player will be alive for the
$1 million following the Lexington Stakes on April 19 at Keeneland and a 77.6
percent chance that at least one person will win the grand prize two weeks later
following the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, but drop the percentage down to
60 percent and there’s only a 28.3 percent chance that one player will be alive
for the $1 million and a 18.1 percent chance that someone will win it.
If the trend continues exactly, then there will be two players alive for the
$1 million following the Lexington
Speaking of two people alive, that is how many remain in the @twinspires #tsSHOWdown last
longest competition for $500, as both
@fakemaven and @JBOswald68 rode
Uncle Sigh to week four — a pick that continued the trend of the surviving pair
shying away from favorites, as @fakemaven has
used only one favorite (Enterprising in the El Camino Real Derby) among his six
selections, and @JBOswald68 has
used just two (the aforementioned Enterprising and Strong Mandate in the
Southwest Stakes). Uncle Sigh also marks the third time the pair agreed on their
picks, as in addition to Enterprising and Uncle Sigh they both used Risen Star
Stakes winner Intense Holiday last week.
Both races in week four of SHOWdown are
Saturday: the Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs and the San Felipe Stakes at
Santa Anita Park. As always, we’ll have FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate Past
Performances with comments.
Even if you’re not one of the 255
players alive for the $1 million, there’s 2,146 players with at least one
correct and thus live to a share in the $10,000 Kentucky Derby consolation pool.
Of those players, 415
players have five correct and are very much in the hunt for the Derby and
Oaks tickets and Derby merchandise prizes available to those with the most
correct going into the Derby itself.