DEROSA’S BLOG
MARCH 29, 2014
Derby
Prep Weekend Watch And Win Now And Later
by
Ed DeRosa
The
Florida and
Louisiana Derby cards (click for
free
Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs) on Saturday stand alone as blockbuster wagering
and sporting events, but it will be impossible for Thoroughbred racing fans to
keep from thinking about the first Friday and Saturday in May when taking in
this week’s action.
Click here for Florida Derby day handicapping reports.
The $1 million Derbys at Gulfstream Park and Fair Grounds anchor big days of racing at both venues where the undercards feature
Kentucky Oaks prep races as well as events for older horses that could produce
starters on the Kentucky Oaks and Derby undercards.
Hopefully our Florida and Louisiana Derby day opinions will
reward us on Saturday, and keen observations on the day’s events could lead to
further spoils five weeks later in Louisville, Kentucky.
These seven-figure prep races have added significance for
Steve Metzler
of Louisville, who is the only player still eligible for the
$1 million as part of
TwinSpires’ Road to the Kentucky Derby SHOWdown. Metzler
has picked 11 straight horses to show in Triple Crown prep races and has nine to
go with three this weekend: the aforementioned Derbys plus the
U.A.E. Derby on
Saturday morning from Meydan in Dubai.
The top two finishers of all three races are likely to have
enough points for this year’s
Kentucky Derby with those placings worth 100 and 40 points, respectively. Twenty points for third is
probably good for bubble talk at least.
The main Kentucky Derby storylines out of Gulfstream are
whether Cairo Prince can affirm his place as a potential Derby favorite. He will
be one of the top two choices in this week’s final Kentucky Derby Future Wager
(KDFW) pool, and a win could see him favored in five weeks pending what California
Chrome and Samraat do next week in the Santa Anita Derby and Wood
Memorial, respectively.
In the Louisiana Derby, I’m eager to see how In Trouble
performs as a test against the New York form. In Trouble finished third behind Samraat and Uncle Sigh in the Gotham in a repeat of the Withers exacta.
That’s part of what I’ll be watching for. As for what I’ll
be betting, the two horses who interest me the most on the day are Rise Up in
the Louisiana Derby and War Dancer in the Skip Away.
Rise Up lost all chance in the Risen Star with a poor
start, and while the rush up rarely works as a winning move, I like that it gave
him more of a race then just hanging out in last for a circuit. If he moves
forward of his two-year-old form he can beat these, and 10-1 is the right
price to find out.
War Dancer’s best race was the Travers Stakes, and while a
sixth in the finish position doesn’t set off fireworks, it was the fastest race of
his career according to Brisnet.com Speed Ratings, and is competitive with this
group. The distance also fits.
Enjoy the races this weekend!