HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
MARCH 7, 2014
by Dick Powell
I always look forward to the Santa Anita Handicap but this year’s renewal has
me on the edge of my seat with my finger poised on the keyboard to send it in on
Game On Dude (Awesome Again).
The race has come up especially strong this year with Breeders’ Cup Classic
winner Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno) back to face Will Take Charge (Unbridled’s
Song) who he narrowly beat here in the 2013 Classic.
Mucho Macho Man made his seasonal debut with a 14-length win in the Sunshine
Millions Classic at Gulfstream Park and Will Take Charge was a terrific second
in the Donn Handicap (G1) behind a track record setter.
So both are coming into this year’s Big ‘Cap in solid form. The connections
of both have resisted the allure of the $10 million Dubai World Cup later in the
month and will stay home to race on Santa Anita’s dirt racing surface.
But, even though he hasn’t won since the Pacific Classic (G1)
and has lost his last three starts, I think the race sets up perfectly for Game
On Dude. He won last year’s renewal by almost eight lengths and comes in here
with a major pace advantage over his two main rivals.
The crazy thing with Game On Dude is that he has been nowhere in the past two
runnings of the Breeders’ Cup Classic on his home track but everyone seems to
forget that in the 2011 Classic at Churchill Downs, he was absolutely brilliant
when he stayed on to the final yards while racing on the worst part of the
track.
After his Classic debacle here last year, he came back and just missed
beating Will Take Charge in the Clark Handicap (G1) going nine furlongs at
Churchill Downs, finishing a head second. Granted, his first start of this year
was eventful, when he was off the board in the San Antonio (G2) going nine
furlongs, but now he shows up at 10 furlongs where he has won five times
including three Grade 1 stakes last year.
Even though he has shown a willingness to rate early, he has more than enough
gas for Mike Smith to use early and dominate. He came out of the San Antonio in
good form and has been drilled by Bob Baffert like the old days. Maybe Baffert
didn’t want to tighten the screws too much for his first start of the year but
it looks like he’s not taking any chances for this year’s Big ‘Cap. A brilliant
seven-furlong workout in 1:25 4/5 on February 26 indicates all systems are go.
Not sure we will get a price on Game on Dude even though he should be third
choice in the wagering. The top three should soak up most of the betting dollars
so 5-to-2 should be a fair price in the win pool. Where do I sign up?
Earlier on the Santa Anita card on Saturday, Baffert will send out Kaleem
Shah’s Bayern (Offlee Wild) in the San Felipe (G2) going 1 1/16 miles on the
main track. It will be his stakes debut but he has electrified the racing world
with a sensational career debut when he won by three lengths going seven
furlongs in complete command then came back and beat the highly-regarded Tap It
Rich (Tapit) by 15 lengths going a two-turn mile against allowance foes.
Even though he went gate to wire last out, he relaxed early and finished like
a turf horse in a slow-paced race. His BRIS Pace figures were 81, 89 and 107 so
he had a ton of late energy. The challenge for him and Gary Stevens is to relax
again, but this time behind horses. Against nine rivals with lots of early
speed, going gate to wire might win him the San Felipe but not learn how to
stretch his speed out.
I look for Stevens to ride him like he was on Beholder (Henny Hughes) and get
him to relax early and let others go to the lead. From post 6, he doesn’t have
to worry about him getting engaged in a speed duel or shuffled too far back so
the opportunity to school him in the right circumstances will be present.
Baffert also has the talented Midnight Hawk (Midnight Lute) entered and if
Bayern gets the betting money based on the hype, then this guy becomes the
“Other Baffert.: After breaking his maiden at Hollywood Park, he came back to
win the Sham Stakes (G3) going two turns as the 2-to-5 favorite.
Last out in the Bob Lewis Stakes (G2), Midnight Hawk grinded along to loom
boldly in the deep stretch before weakening to third. He draws post nine and
Mike Smith will have to use some early energy to keep him from getting hung out
wide on the first turn.
When you look at horses being products of their trainers, Kristo (Distorted
Humor) could be sitting on a big race. Not known for pushing his young horses
early, John Sadler gave this colt two, sprint efforts before stretching him out
to two turns here and he went gate to wire to win by over six lengths.
He held on for second in his stakes debut behind Midnight Hawk in the Sham
and now he comes back off 56 days rest for Sadler who is able to pick up Joel
Rosario for the race. By the great Distorted Humor, Kristo is out of a minor
stakes winner that is a half-sister to champion sprinter Smoke Glacken and
multiple graded stakes winner Smokey Glacken.