KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT
MARCH 27, 2014
by James Scully
The final round of major preps, a three-week window consisting of seven races
But I’m hoping for something to get excited about.
The 2014 Kentucky Derby picture lacks sizzle, with the term “wide open” being
But these horses, for the most part, haven’t run very fast yet. From
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Take nothing away from Chitu — he was impressive charging up the rail to
score by 1 3/4 lengths last Sunday — but he’s a son of Henny Hughes, a
successful sprinter out of a mare by speed sire Meadowlake. Henny Hughes gets
runners — he’s the sire of dual champion Beholder — but don’t expect him to
produce any Kentucky Derby winners.
Perhaps the next three weeks will bring more clarity.
The Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park was also offered last weekend. I’ll take a
look at both races and provide some early thoughts about the action this
Saturday.
Sunland Derby
Chitu receives some stamina from his dam side — he’s out of a mare by A.P.
Indy — but similar to Govenor Charlie, who established a new track record
capturing the 1 1/8-mile Sunland Derby last year, it’s impossible to envision
him as a serious Kentucky Derby contender.
As Verrazano showed in 2013 (perfect in two Grade 1s at 1 1/8 miles; up the
track in the Derby and Travers), there can be an enormous difference between
nine and 10 furlongs for some horses.
Chitu was one of two starters in Sunday’s race for Bob Baffert along with
Midnight Hawk, who suddenly ran out of steam after taking a short lead at the
top of the stretch. Midnight Hawk still wound up 4 3/4 lengths clear of
third-placer Commissioner, who was never a serious factor after stumbling at the
start.
Baffert figures to have at least three horses in the Kentucky Derby, with
Chitu and Midnight Hawk accumulating enough points already along with Rebel
winner Hoppertutnity. But Hoppertunity is the one I’m giving a realistic chance.
Spiral
Ken Ramsey is coming off a banner year, dominating every meet at Churchill
Downs and Keeneland as well as capturing owner titles at Gulfstream and
Saratoga, but the colorful owner is still seeking his first Kentucky Derby
victory. He hopes to see Bobby’s Kitten qualify in the April 11 Blue Grass, but
Ramsey can pin his hopes upon We Miss Artie for the time being.
The colt ensured himself a berth in Saturday’s 1 1/8-mile Spiral, getting up
by a nose in a blanket finish.
We Miss Artie had distinguished himself on Polytrack before, winning the
Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last October, and he handles turf,
recording a nose second in the Kitten’s Joy at Gulfstream earlier this year. But
his dirt form leaves something to be desired, posting non-threatening efforts in
the Holy Bull and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
The Spiral turned out to be a slow race. Harry’s Holiday, a 15-1 outsider
following a well-beaten third in the John Battaglia Memorial, nearly proved best
as the field crawled to the finish line in the stretch drive, losing in the
final stride. Third-placer Coastline, who wound up a head back in the
three-horse photo, was exiting a well-beaten fourth in the Southwest at Oaklawn.
The winner earned only a 93 Speed rating. I like We Miss Artie’s run style —
the Derby could set up well for a closer with a hot and contested pace — but
can’t get excited about his chances.
Saturday’s stakes
Despite the speed-favoring nature of Gulfstream’s main track, Saturday’s
Florida Derby doesn’t figure to be stolen on the front end. There’s just too
much speed present in the eight-horse field.
On paper, the race sets up perfectly for a stalk-and-pounce trip from Cairo
Prince, who will make his second attempt at 1 1/8 miles. The Pioneerof the Nile
colt sustained his lone setback in the nine-furlong Remsen last November,
surrendering the lead when Honor Code re-rallied up the rail to nail him on the
wire, and one of the questions surrounding Cairo Prince is his affinity for
longer distances.
Constitution, a promising Distorted Humor colt who will make his stakes debut
for Todd Pletcher, intrigues me. After being all speed in his first two outings,
the unbeaten sophomore needs to prove more versatile and it’s logical to assume
that Pletcher’s been working on getting him to relax in the mornings. I hope to
see him settle behind front-runners Wildcat Red and General a Rod during the
early stages.
I’m leaning toward Constitution and will include Cairo Prince in any
multi-race wagers.
Risen Star winner Intense Holiday is the horse to beat in Saturday’s
Louisiana Derby and the presence of three speed horses on the outside — Rise
Up, In Trouble and Albano — should ensure a solid pace for the late-running
colt. Mike Smith, who picked up the mount for Pletcher last time, will be back
for the mount.
I will make a small case for Commanding Curve in his second start this year.
A smart maiden winner at Churchill Downs in late November, the Dallas Stewart
trainee returned to the races in the Risen Star and received support at the
windows, leaving the starting gate at 12-1 despite his inexperience in the
14-horse field.
The Master Command ridgling dropped far back during the early stages but
offered a nice middle move on the far turn, passing about six horses by the top
of the stretch, and I wasn’t surprised to see him flatten out in the final
furlong. Commanding Curve needed the race and should benefit greatly from the
comebacker.
Commanding Curve rates a slight edge at a price and I’ll include Intense
Holiday and Rise Up in any multi-race bets.
The U.A.E. Derby will be held overseas Saturday and offers the same points as
the Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby. Trainer Aidan O’Brien, who will be
seeking his third straight victory in the 1 3/16-mile event on Tapeta, has an
extremely live contender in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf runner-up Giovanni
Boldini.
He figures to make the trip stateside with a good showing and I wouldn’t
completely dismiss the Kentucky Derby chances of Giovanni Boldini — the War
Front colt possesses a nice pedigree for 1 1/4 miles on dirt.
Kentucky Derby Top 10
- Cairo Prince — Holy Bull romper is the one to beat in the Florida Derby.
- California Chrome — Rolled to an easy front-running victory in San Felipe.
- Hoppertunity — He’s coming on for three-time
Derby winner Baffert; looking forward to his final prep. - Candy Boy — Captured Bob Lewis with complete authority; Santa Anita Derby next.
- Intense Holiday — Fast-closing colt will be seeking Risen Star-Louisiana Derby
double. - Samraat — New York-bred colt continued to impress in Gotham;
headed to the Wood Memorial for Violette. - Strong Mandate — Disappointed in Rebel, will look to rebound in Arkansas Derby.
- Conquest Titan — Late runner experienced a tough trip when fourth in
Tampa Bay Derby; remains a sleeper for Casse. - Tonalist — Could be more of a Belmont prospect for Clement but
eligible to run well in the Wood Memorial. - Tapiture — Churchill stakes winner exits a rough trip in Rebel,
could show more in Arkansas Derby.