DEROSA’S BLOG
APRIL 29, 2014
Kentucky Derby prep weddings and the funerals that follow
by Ed DeRosa
One of the most popular clichés around the betting windows — especially on
the Triple Crown trail — is “if you didn’t go to the wedding then don’t go to
the funeral.”
I did not just miss Danza’s wedding in the Arkansas Derby, but I was at the
church next door getting stood up at the altar by Ride On Curlin.
I like both horses going into this week’s Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum!
Brands and expect both to be a fair price at around 15-to-1.
The trouble with Danza is that in the past 22 Derbys, extravagant prep race
weddings have led to Derby funerals, as horses who are shorter odds in the
latter than they were in the former are winless in 36 tries dating back to 1992.
If we limit the sample to the modern era of Derby win betting, which I
consider 2001 and beyond when coupled entries and the mutuel field were
eliminated, then it’s still a zero-for-17 slide.
Each Kentucky Derby starter since 1992 whose off odds was less than his
previous race:
In that “modern era” that began this century (and in earnest with Lusty Latin
in 2002 since there were no qualifiers the previous year), only Nehro and Ice
Box managed to hit the board (both with runner-up finishes), though
Imawildandcrazyguy and Shackleford both hit the super for a line of 17-0-2-0-2.
Nehro was the shortest price of any wedding-funeral horse at 17-to-2 to win
off his runner-up finish in the Arkansas Derby, and he mostly ran to those odds
when second to Spiral Stakes winner Animal Kingdom. Interestingly, that year’s
Arkansas Derby winner (and my top pick), Archarcharch, also saw his odds drop:
going from 25.2-to-1 when winning the Arkansas Derby to 25-to-2 for the Kentucky
Derby.
The above chart includes wedding-funeral horses back to 1992 but does not
include any parts of an entry or the mutuel field for the 1992-2000 editions of
the race. A bolded prep race indicates that horse won the prep.