DEROSA’S BLOG
MAY 1, 2014
Kentucky Derby Projected Win Odds
by
Ed DeRosa
Picking a Kentucky Derby favorite is much easier than picking the Kentucky
Derby winner, but tabbing his (and 19 others’) off odds is among the more
difficult guessing games in the Sport of Kings.
Of this I’m certain: California Chrome will be favored and Wicked Strong will
be second choice.
After that, there are questions: What will California Chrome’s price actually
be? Will Wicked Strong as second choice be closer in odds to California Chrome
or the third choice? Who will be the third choice? Who will the longest shot on
the board be?
My projected odds below attempt to answer these questions. I’m not calling it
a projected morning line because it’s not my guess at what the morning line will
be but what the off odds will be.
| Horse | Projected Odds |
| California Chrome | 4-1 |
| Candy Boy | 20-1 |
| Chitu | 15-1 |
| Commanding Curve | 30-1 |
| Dance With Fate | 20-1 |
| Danza | 15-1 |
| General a Rod | 20-1 |
| Harry’s Holiday | 40-1 |
| Hoppertunity | 12-1 |
| Intense Holiday | 12-1 |
| Medal Count | 15-1 |
| Ride On Curlin | 15-1 |
| Samraat | 18-1 |
| Tapiture | 18-1 |
| Uncle Sigh | 35-1 |
| Vicar’s in Trouble | 15-1 |
| Vinceremos | 35-1 |
| We Miss Artie | 40-1 |
| Wicked Strong | 8-1 |
| Wildcat Red | 25-1 |
I’m on the higher side than what most think Santa Anita Derby winner
California Chrome will be, but I just can’t make the math work to get him any
lower, though given most people think he’ll be between 9-5 and 5-2, I’d gladly
make his over/under price 2.99-to-1 and take the over all day.
Wicked Strong I put in the middle of the first and co-third choices with the
TwinSpires.com Wood Memorial Stakes winner projected at 8-1 and both Louisiana
Derby runner-up Intense Holiday and Santa Anita Derby runner-up Hoppertunity at
12-1.
After that I have a bunch in the 15- to -18-1 range and then have the bombs
filling out the 30+ range with the Spiral Stakes exacta of We Miss Artie and
Harry’s Holiday as the longest shots at 40-1 each.
In preparing
this column about horses who go off at shorter odds in the Derby than they
did in their final prep, I looked at Derby PPs back to 1992, which gave me a
good feel for trends in how the race has been bet through the years.
For Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances of every Kentucky Derby race
dating back to 2000,
CLICK HERE.
The watershed moment for Derby win betting came in 2001 when Churchill Downs
eliminated the mutuel field and the Kentucky Racing Commission eliminated
coupled entries allowing for 20 individual wagering interests. That was the last
year any horse was more than 80-1, and lately 50-1 seems to be the ceiling as
well as the movie named for the last longshot winner.
If I were to make the bottom six wagering choices 20-1 as part of a mutuel
field, then on my odds line California Chrome could drop to 3-1 and every other
horse can drop two points. That’s a huge difference.
As sophisticated bettors, another thing to remember with Derby win betting is
that the odds in that pool aren’t necessarily indicative of how a horse is
getting bet in other pools (e.g. it’s difficult to imagine that Sunland Derby
winner Twice The Appeal was really 11-1 across all pools, but Calvin Borel —
fresh off consecutive Derby wins as part of a three-for-four streak — attracts
win money).
For that reason, the cardinal ranking of horses is worth noting (e.g. Vicar’s
In Trouble is one of five I have as the co-fifth choice at 15-1, and I have two
others at both 12- and 18-1, but it’s possible that the Rosie/Ramsey factor will
actually make her the third choice. For multi-horse wagering purposes, though, I
doubt Vicar’s In Trouble will be any more bet than the others I have in the same
range).
Horses like Harry’s Holiday I only expect to be in the win spot of exotics
tickets that use “ALL” on top.