HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
MAY 30, 2014
by Dick Powell
There used to be major evidence that horses that skipped the Preakness Stakes
could not come back and win the Belmont. Due to its unique 1 1/2-mile distance
on the dirt, it was felt that you needed a prep race to be at your best.
Horses that showed up in the Belmont after skipping the Preakness seemed to
be at a severe disadvantage without a race in five weeks. A race was viewed as
being as good as four or five workouts so the Preakness filled the bill.
Now, training has evolved into once-a-week workouts each weekend before the
targeted race. The more time between races, the better. Very few trainers want
to come back from the Kentucky Derby and show up two weeks later so the
Preakness is close to being on the endangered species list.
Last year, Palace Malice added blinkers for the Derby, ran poorly, then came
back five weeks later to win the Belmont. What I noticed about him is that Todd
Pletcher drilled him three times in between instead of the normal two.
Union Rags was a rough-trip seventh in the Derby. He changed jockeys and came
back five weeks later to win the Belmont two years ago.
In 2011, Ruler on Ice splashed home to take the Belmont after recording a
prep race on Derby day at Pimlico. The second, third and fourth finishers all
came out of the Derby and skipped the Preakness. Animal Kingdom was second in
the Preakness to Shackleford and they finished sixth and fifth in the Belmont,
respectively.
You have to go back to Afleet Alex in 2005 to find a Belmont winner that ran
in the Preakness. A few have run in the Peter Pan Stakes (G2) at Belmont but
that is another handicapping angle to be discussed later, the “race over the
track.”
As far as getting ready for the Belmont, there are two schools of thought.
Since some horses have raced twice, in a two-week period (Derby and Preakness),
all you need to do is jog them up to the race to maintain their energy level.
You saw it from Laz Barrera with Bold Forbes, who basically jogged him up to the
Belmont after a suicidal duel in the Preakness with Honest Pleasure.
The other school of thought is that a race at 1 1/2 miles requires the
ultimate in cardio-vascular conditioning and a horse has to be trained hard to
be ready.
California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit) has been on the light-work regimen for
months. It seems that most of his conditioning comes from long gallops and he
doesn’t need much else. He doesn’t carry a lot of flesh on his frame and it
looks like he has been able to bounce back from his races pretty quickly.
Wicked Strong (Hard Spun) is an example of hard training to get ready for the
“Test of the Champion.” Trained by Jimmy Jerkens, son of the old-school Hall of
Fame conditioner Allen Jerkens, Wicked Strong has been drilled to get ready,
including a mile on the training track in 1:39 2/5. Rick Violette put Samraat
(Noble Causeway) through a similar one-mile drill on the Belmont main track in
1:41.
What you don’t see anymore is someone running in the Derby and Preakness then
drilling before the Belmont. The ones that do are usually the ones that skipped
the Preakness. The ones that race in Baltimore are trained lightly up to the
Belmont.
So far, all the reports on California Chrome are positive. NYRA has done a
good job showing his morning gallops and he has a lot of energy as he finishes
them with interest.
If you want to find a cloud in the silver lining, I remember Smarty Jones and
Funny Cide coming out of their Derby and Preakness wins in terrific shape. They
both looked great a week before the Belmont then came up short on the big day.
Yes, there were circumstances for both of them. But I had the opinion that if
the Belmont were run two weeks after the Preakness, they both would have won the
Triple Crown. It wasn’t a case of not having enough time to recover — their
energy level was too keen and may have dissipated in the last week.
California Chrome is scheduled to record a timed workout Saturday, probably a
half-mile breeze. Will it be enough to have him ready?
There are well-bred horses. But we saw two over the weekend win Group 1
stakes races that took “well-bred” to another level.
Both were sired by the mighty Galileo, who is not only the leading stallion
in the world but might be the best bred. His dam, Urban Sea (Miswaki), won the
Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and has already produced an Arc winner in Sea the
Stars as well as six other stakes winners.
In Sunday’s Tattersalls Gold Cup in Ireland, Noble Mission pulled off the
upset for Juddmonte Farms and Lady Cecil. He is a full-brother to none other
than Frankel, who was undefeated in 14 career starts and the highest rated horse
ever to race in Europe.
In the next race, Marvellous won the classic 1,000 Guineas at The Curragh in
Ireland. Her dam, You’resothrilling, was a multiple group stakes winner in
Europe but what she is most known for is being a full-sister to six-time Group 1
winner Giant’s Causeway, who has gone on to a brilliant stallion career.