Tokyo Racecourse is expected to host upwards of 130,000 fans for Sunday’s Grade 1,
¥424,800,000 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby), with millions
more tuning in at home for the country’s classic.
A jam-packed field of 18
offers bettors many lucrative possibilities, but trends from the last decade are
difficult to ignore. All but two of the last 10 Derby winners have figured in the top four of the
Satsuki Sho (Japanese Two Thousand Guineas), or in the two spots of another Grade 1 race. All
but one in the last decade have won a major turf race or won or placed in a Grade 1
race as a three-year-old at a distance of 1800 meters or longer prior to their Derby crowning.
That
criteria whittles the field down to three contenders: Isla Bonita, To the World and the lone filly in the lineup, Red Reveur.
Favored Isla Bonita enters this test on a four-race win streak, having most
recently taken the Japanese Two Thousand Guineas on April 20 in his Grade 1
debut. Prior wins for the son of Fuji Kiseki include the February 24 Tokinominoru Kinen and
November 16 Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes, and he is
unbeaten over this course. His lone defeat came at the hands of eventual Japanese
One Thousand Guineas heroine Harp Star in last year’s Niigata Nisai
Stakes.
To the World finished a no-excuses second as the favorite in the Japanese Two
Thousand Guineas, and the Hochi Hai Yayoi Sho winner looks well suited on pedigree to excel in his first visit
to Tokyo. He looks to become the first Derby winner for his Derby-winning sire King Kamehameha,
who bested Heart’s Cry by 1 1/2 lengths in 2004, and his dam To the Victory
finished second in the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks).
Red Reveur will be the first filly to contest the Derby since Vodka prevailed
by three lengths over the boys in 2007, and she will look to become just the fourth female in the race’s 82-year history
to reach the winner’s circle. On paper, Red Reveur appears to have much against her. She has
never raced beyond 1800 meters or left-handed. The Stay Gold miss is lightly raced, with just four
starts under her belt, but what she has accomplished has been nearly flawless. She strung
together an unbeaten juvenile campaign, culminating in a victory in the Hanshin
Juvenile Fillies over Harp Star, who subsequently handed Red Reveur her only loss, when second
by a quarter-length, in the Japanese One Thousand Guineas. As such, Red Reveur’s form is arguably on par with
Harp Star, who trounced Isla Bonita in their only meeting.
While recent history suggests one of these three should
land in the winner’s circle, horses have been known to not follow the rule book, and as such
there are a few other interesting contenders.
One and Only will
look to avenge the loss of his sire, Heart’s Cry, 10 years ago in addition to providing trainer Kojiro
Hasiguchi, who has saddled 19 horses over 17 years in this race, with his first Derby winner.
The dark bay will be ridden by Norihiro Yokoyama, the rider of Heart’s Cry.
One and Only has won just two of eight starts, but his recent record could be better than it
appears on paper. The Koji Maeda silkbearer finished second by a nose to To the World in the Hochi Hai Yayoi Sho, turning in
the fastest final three furlongs, and he repeated that feat when fourth in the
Japanese Two Thousand Guineas,
finishing strongly but just failing to hit the board. Therefore, the added distance may be to
his liking, and he looks to become his sire’s second classic winner of the season after Nuovo
Record took the Japanese Oaks last weekend.
No major Japanese race would be complete without representation of sire
sensation Deep Impact, who himself won the Derby in
record-tying time in 2005 and is the sire of the last two winners in Kizuna and Deep Brillante. He is represented by three
on Sunday, including longshot Bell Canyon, who
owns two wins a second from three runs at Tokyo.
Bell Canyon finished 1 1/4 lengths in
second behind Isla Bonita in the Tokinominoru Kinen in his February 24 seasonal debut, but
disappointed in his next two outings. He posted a confidence-boosting victory most recently in
the Principal Stakes going 2000 meters at Tokyo on May 10.
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