Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

AUGUST 29, 2014

by Dick Powell

Ten-furlong races are very different than nine-furlong races. We see it every

spring when horses dominate the last major Kentucky Derby prep races, run at 1

1/8 miles, and then come up short on the stretch out to 1 1/4 miles. 

Sometimes, with experience and training, horses that fail at nine furlongs

can learn to get that elusive extra furlong. Chief's Crown comes to mind as he

failed in the 1985 Kentucky Derby when it looked too far for him but came back

to win the Travers Stakes.

Others, like Quality Road, were absolutely brilliant going nine furlongs

while winning the Florida Derby (G1), Donn Handicap (G1) and Woodward Stakes

(G1), but he failed to produce the same form dropping the ten-furlong Jockey

Club Gold Cup (G1) and Breeders' Cup Classic.

This past weekend, we were faced with the decision on whether or not Bayern (Offlee

Wild) , an easy winner of the nine-furlong Haskell Invitational (G1), could get

another furlong in the Travers. 

At first glance, it looked like it would be out of his reach no matter how

strong he appeared to be at the end of the Haskell. But, the way this Travers

shaped up, it was clear that he would be loose on an easy lead and who knows how

brave he would get with things going his own way.

From an inside post, there was no doubt that Martin Garcia would send Bayern

to the lead into the clubhouse turn. And, as the field of 10 hit the finish line

after a furlong had been run, two funny things happened.

First, Martin Garcia, who opened up three lengths on the field in the first

sixteenth of a mile, suddenly decided to wrap up on Bayern. Instead of going on

with it and shaking loose on an uncontested lead, Garcia tried to throttle him

down and nurse his speed. When you are fearful of getting the distance on a

track that he only saw a couple of days earlier, this is what you do. Big

mistake.

The other surprise was that Joel Rosario sent Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist

(Tapit) up between horses to challenge for the lead with a full lap to go. 

Wicked Strong (Hard Spun), who showed a new dimension racimng closer to the

pace with the addition of blinkers in the Jim Dandy (G2), was three wide

entering the clubhouse turn but Rajiv Maragh was not going to look a gift horse

in the mouth and decided to save ground behind the top two.

The pace of the Travers was honest with a first quarter in 23.74 seconds and

the first half in :47.31. Bayern was on the lead but Tonalist was doing all the

work, applying constant pressure on the outside. Entering the far turn, Maragh

eased off the rail and went up to challenge three wide. The third quarter was

run in 23.96 seconds and as they approached the top of the stretch, Maragh put

Wicked Strong in front as Tonalist battled on and Bayern wanted no more as he

plummeted back through the field.

In a perfect trip, Maragh would have waited before seizing the lead but his

decisive move looked like it was going to be the winning one as Wicked Strong

had a clear lead with one furlong to go. Tonalist was battling on gamely but was

clearly not going to win and as I watched the rest of the field for any

threatening moves, a horse covered with mud emerged between horses to go after

Wicked Strong.

It was Jimmy Jerkens' "other" horse, V.E. Day (English Channel), who looked

like a long-distance turf horse until he won the nine-furlong Curlin Stakes on

the day before the Jim Dandy. Now, here he was, eating up ground with every

stride under a perfectly-timed ride (is there any other with this guy?) from

Javier Castellano, erasing the deficit that Wicked Strong had built.

Maragh asked Wicked Strong for everything he had but his gallant colt was leg

weary in the last 100 yards and V.E. Day got his nose down at the wire to pull

off the upset at odds of 19-to-1. Wicked Strong easily held second as Tonalist

held well to be third. 

What trainer Bob Baffert asked Bayern to do was next to impossible. He was

cooked after a mile and Garcia wisely did not persevere with him through the

stretch. He should have waited for the nine-furlong Pennsylvania Derby (G2) next

month but now I would hope he turns him back in distance. His easy win in the

Woody Stephens (G2) going seven furlongs is more of an indication of who Bayern

is than his easy win the Haskell.

How many times have we talked about the handicapping angle of the "the other

Baffert?" So many times, the lesser-fancied runner in the field gets the job

done at inflated odds and here we had it again with a guy not known for running

entries in major stakes races. 

Out at Del Mar the next day, the Pacific Classic was contested for the last

time on a synthetic track and undefeated champion two-year-old Shared Belief

(Candy Ride) was being asked to not only try 10 furlongs for the first time but

to take on older horses as well. A Herculean task, to be sure, but the betting

public felt he was more than up to it and sent him off as the 6-to-5 favorite. 

Second choice in the wagering was Game On Dude (Awesome Again), who might not

be the horse he used to be at the age of seven, but it was only last spring that

he crushed the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) going this distance in blazing-fast

time. He was the speed of the race and Garcia, who rode him to victory last

year, was back from Saratoga for the ride.

As good as Game On Dude looked for the first seven furlongs of the race,

Shared Belief looked like he could take over any time Mike Smith wanted to.

Coming out of the far turn, he swooped three wide and despite lugging in a bit

on Toast of New York (Thewayyouare), he went on to a convincing 2 3/4-length win

in the excellent time of 2:00.28. 

At this point, who cares about his chances for another divisional

championship? Shared Belief will bring a lot of buzz to the rest of the year and

things could get even more exciting when Derby/Preakness winner California

Chrome (Lucky Pulpit) returns in the Pennsylvania Derby. There are still a lot

of good three-year-olds competing at the highest levels but only Shared Belief

has beaten older horses in a Grade 1 stakes race going long. 

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